London & South East Regional Discussion - 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The fact that the PPN heading into our region now is falling as snow is good

[Sno' problem]

Could be some record breaking totals for some parts outside of the SE

Some of the precip is 96mm an hour which if converted into cm could give some historic totals if it maintains intensity

Think the midlands and Yorkshire for example could get 2-3ft out of this

The GFS rainfall charts are for three hour segments, NOT the ppn per hour, so 96mm in three hours.

So a third of your prediction might be closer to the mark!

[Great Plum]

Currently bang on 0c with a dew of -1.6c... Still some dedicated sledges in Priory Park, Reigate...

[bobbydog]

blob watch Channel moving up from France..

that blob will miss us. what we are looking for is that rainfall to the north and west of us to intensify and increase its southerly extent as the fronts occlude. this is another "warm sector" scenario. the further south the point of occlusion gets, will roughly be the southerly extent of the snow. basically, we want the precipitation to stall before it gets here allowing the two fronts to merge further west. i'm not expecting anything here especially as i still think the Meto warnings are being a little over-cautious.

still, the weather is full of surprises so we never know!

[Paul Sherman]

Prediction for this event

Kent - up to 2cm

East Sussex - up to 2cm

Central London - 0cm

South Essex - up to 2 cm

Greater London (Croydon / Wimbledon etc) - up to 2cm

Downs (Banstead area) - up to 5cm

Herts / Bucks / Beds / north Essex - up to 5cm

Shropshire / E Mids - up to 10cm

Yorkshire - up to 10cm

Good lad thats more like it!

[Sno' problem]

on my iPhone the app says amber I can assure u . Rain is yellow and so is ice but the snow symbol is amber but when I swipe to look at it the amber is above ! Only saying what my app says

You got me excited!

[ChartViewer]

Current temp obs temp 0 dew -3

[john mac]

just been onto the three counties thread, and apparently herts gritters are get ploughs fitted!! interesting

[ChartViewer]

just been onto the three counties thread, and apparently herts gritters are get ploughs fitted!! interesting

Prob to mow the grass tmw mate

[Marie]

Temp is 2.6 and dewpoint 0.4

[Lampostwatcher]

Gritters out in harrow

[Suburban Streamer]

the bbc snowcast thing has updated

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/21205463

exactly like the nae, just bit faster to arrive

Edited January 25, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Sno' problem]

Temperatures are really beginning to drop throughout the region:

Is that 13 temp Harrow on the Weald

Positively balmy in Watford

Edited January 25, 2013 by Sno' problem

[ChartViewer]

Temperatures are really beginning to drop throughout the region:

Is that 13 temp Harrow on the Weald

[ZONE 51]

NAE 12z

0000hrs-0600hrs

Think are be sticking with this one..

although i am a little worried in these situations, but i do have confidence that something is to surprise us on this one, quite sure some areas north and east of London are going to get snowpounded.. BUT i do also expect snowfall across much of inland SE, i would imagine the yellow METO warning to extend south into west sussex later.

Looking through the data/models and the current situation i think that snow is likely for most of our region.

Edited January 25, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[NO LONGER POSTING]

"I expect a few CMs in the capital" well.. Must of us live outside that

[swash]

the bbc snowcast thing has updated

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/21205463

Still running the same ridiculous graphics, the 1 hour jump between the last actual radar and the forecast is laughable

[Sno' problem]

the bbc snowcast thing has updated

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/21205463

They are still being extremely vague about our region. Had no snow graphics over central London at all, yet he finishes by saying "London likely to get a few cm"!

If the temps keep dropping at the same rate as they are now, then it will be plenty cold enough for snow in the Capital.

Edited January 25, 2013 by Sno' problem

[polarlow2]

BBC's Chris Fawkes: 'Expect a few cms at least' in London. Interesting.

[polarlow2]

Ok my punt is this: up to about 8cms widely north of London, ie Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire up to and just after midnight. London suburbs maybe up to 5cms, particularly higher northern suburbs. A dusting in west London and areas to the west of London. Little to the east of London. Thinking that a 'sweet spot'; somewhere such as Luton, MAY get 10cms plus.

[alexaris1985]

yes, and the same time the hourly forecast has rain and sleet in it..However, i recognize the fact that the symbols are raw inputs straight from computers..anyway nowcast begins in 3 hours or more..we will see what we get

[polarlow2]

Ok my punt is this: up to about 8cms widely north of London, ie Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire up to and just after midnight. London suburbs maybe up to 5cms, particularly higher northern suburbs. A dusting in west London and areas to the west of London. Little to the east of London. Thinking that a 'sweet spot'; somewhere such as Luton, MAY get 10cms plus.

Also, I have never, ever, seen the BBC do a 'running update' on a snow event, so they must be quite concerned that northern England may get a real pasting. Expect images galore later of people trapped in cars in the Pennines etc.

[Southender]

Ok my punt is this: up to about 8cms widely north of London, ie Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire up to and just after midnight. London suburbs maybe up to 5cms, particularly higher northern suburbs. A dusting in west London and areas to the west of London. Little to the east of London. Thinking that a 'sweet spot'; somewhere such as Luton, MAY get 10cms plus.

Oooh careful the Essex and Kent mob will be after you with comments like that!

Edited January 25, 2013 by Shrimper

[mulzy]

"I expect a few CMs in the capital" well.. Must of us live outside that

Hmmm, there's over 7 million people in the capital - MOST of the folk in this region live in the capital.

[polarlow2]

Oooh careful the Essex and Kent mob will be after you with comments like that!

And I will be after them next time we get an easterly outbreak, and I have to see weather warnings for Kent and Essex while London gets bugger all!