South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[noggin]

I'm in the same boat in Exeter, it's like we've got a snow dome over us

Every now and then, it will lift!

I am Exeter born and bred (oh, I do miss the beautiful place ).

When I was born (February 1956) Exeter was under a prolonged blanket of snow, which froze and caused mayhem.

Then there was 1963..........I don't need to say anything about that, just saying "1963" is enough!

I can't speak for after 1972, as that is when I stupidly moved away.

So, although these mega snow events are few and far between, they do happen.........and when they do, they are staggering and they will stay in your heart and mind for your whole life, just as 1963 and 2009/10 stay in mine. It will happen, at some point!

Seeing The Beatles performing live at the ABC in Exeter in 1964 also stays in my mind as a "life event", but that's another story!

I often wonder if the fact of being born during a mega snow event is what made me a snow-lover!

I'll see if I can find a link for the 1956 event, give me a few minutes.

Don't ever give up hope.

[cerneman]

Rain moved over,,Blue sky and sun showing it's face, 4.5C Wind calmed down

[gottolovethisweather]

Didn't you get any yesterday then?

Perhaps you should rephrase that.

FWIW, I didn't either, but I can always look back on my 8 days of consecutive snowcover with much happiness, even if it all goes pete tong from hereon in.

Edited February 6, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Blizzardof82]

4 years ago today I got married on a very snowy Friday

[Bumpkin]

4 years ago today I got married on a very snowy Friday

Happy Anniversary Blizzardof82 and Mrs Blizzardof82.

[Coast]

Perhaps you should rephrase that.

For once I wasn't thinking like that!!!

Run the animation here and Monday comes up as very patchy for snow in the region:

[TwisterGirl81]

Perhaps you should rephrase that.

FWIW, I didn't either, but I can always look back on my 8 days of consecutive snowcover with much happiness, even if it all goes pete tong from hereon in.

LMAO no I didn't!!!

[Bumpkin]

Cold, drizzly and windy Currently trying to gee myself up to taking the dogs out for a walk across the fields, my old lab doesn't care if she goes out or not but my spaniel with adhd does and will sit next to me staring and whining until i give in.

I think snowfall in recent years has raised expectations, just remember whilst you are whinging about the lack of snow that I didn't see proper snowfall for 12 years, just the occasional dusting. So the moral of the story is not to expect it but enjoy it if it happens

[TwisterGirl81]

Every now and then, it will lift!

I am Exeter born and bred (oh, I do miss the beautiful place ).

When I was born (February 1956) Exeter was under a prolonged blanket of snow, which froze and caused mayhem.

Then there was 1963..........I don't need to say anything about that, just saying "1963" is enough!

I can't speak for after 1972, as that is when I stupidly moved away.

So, although these mega snow events are few and far between, they do happen.........and when they do, they are staggering and they will stay in your heart and mind for your whole life, just as 1963 and 2009/10 stay in mine. It will happen, at some point!

Seeing The Beatles performing live at the ABC in Exeter in 1964 also stays in my mind as a "life event", but that's another story!

I often wonder if the fact of being born during a mega snow event is what made me a snow-lover!

I'll see if I can find a link for the 1956 event, give me a few minutes.

Don't ever give up hope.

Aw bless you, that sounds amazing time, yes I know what you mean, I remember a couple snow event's in Exeter in the early 90's I think and 2010/11 winter was memorable for us, I'm sure I'll see a few more and it is the the southwest so it'll always be less cold than elsewhere in the uk during winter....

Yes Exeter is a lovely place to live and I think alot of people take for granted where we live, moors close by, beautiful countryside close by and beaches! Exeter has chaned alot, in the city centre it's changed alot but it needed it, especially with all the hideous concrete buildings quickly put up after the war bombings!! They're going to know down the bus station next and rejuvinate Sidwell street, thankfully....

Thankyou for sharing your story

[Blizzardof82]

Happy Anniversary Blizzardof82 and Mrs Blizzardof82.

Thank you, temp dropping with dew points now 4.4c and 1.3c. I have been in the MOD thread and I now have a new favourite poster Ryan the Dutch weatherman, things still all up in the air for Sunday. Exciting times ahead for weather watchers will it be a damp squib or sledging time, one thing is for sure it wont be decided by GFS, ECM, MOGREPS or METO it will be mother nature who has the final say.

[dancing daisy]

Alexander Fleming has spoilt it all for you. Sorry but I feel much better today, it only ever snows when I am ill and I don't intend on relapsing for you lot.

[A.J]

We had a hail storm and only on the east side of Exeter as I work in the west of Exeter and it wasn't too bad here....Then there was sleet but no snow, maybe on higher elevations and not that much at all.

I do have a giggle to myself at people who already seen lots of snow, complaining they're not getting more, feel sorry for us here in Exeter and South Devon who have had at the most, from what I remember, 1 cm of snow one night, the rest of the time it's either been freezing rain or sleet, we've just been on the wrong side of the battleground events all winter....Now I'm just looking forward to the warmer weather and sun then we'll be laughing!! lol

and the thick banks of sea fog rolling up the Exe & Teign making it feel like mid-winter!

[Costa Del Fal]

Classic Pembrokeshire dangler in force with showers here now in west Cornwall. Just had one of heavy hail.

[A.J]

about half way through the 06z GFS run, and I'd happily take it so far for all of our region...plenty of opportunities for snow by the looks of things

[TwisterGirl81]

and the thick banks of sea fog rolling up the Exe & Teign making it feel like mid-winter!

Luckily that's quite rare just like snow

[major bartlett]

At least Exeter had snow in december 2010. Torbay had nothing. I work in Exeter and my family were shocked with the pictures of snow, whilst looking over green fields just 20 miles away

[cornish snow]

Getting frustrated now.

1) gale force northly wind straight from the artic.

2) 6 feb

3) continous stream of heavy shower activity.

All sounds perfect,trouble is it's RAINING.

[TwisterGirl81]

Getting frustrated now.

1) gale force northly wind straight from the artic.

2) 6 feb

3) continous stream of heavy shower activity.

All sounds perfect,trouble is it's RAINING.

Lol I know, you couldn't make it up could you!

[gottolovethisweather]

Getting frustrated now.

1) gale force northly wind straight from the artic.

2) 6 feb

3) continous stream of heavy shower activity.

All sounds perfect,trouble is it's RAINING.

And you too sir, had SNOW yesterday, did you not?

The brevity of the SNOW and the fact that it doesn't lay for long doesn't help matters but one should be grateful, given the number of winters we both have seen snow failure.

Edited February 6, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[TwisterGirl81]

At least Exeter had snow in december 2010. Torbay had nothing. I work in Exeter and my family were shocked with the pictures of snow, whilst looking over green fields just 20 miles away

Yes we ahve our moments to be thankful but they're not that much better than Torbay who have awesome thunderstorms!

[Gibby]

For the benefit of us Southwesterners I have posted this in the M. O. Thread regarding reliability of models. Not specifically related to this thread but a useful piece of info for thos not wishing to stray over the volatile atmosphere sometimes created in there.

FWIW I could perhaps be of as good authority as anyone to comment on how I feel the models perform and my findings are as follows.

GFS is generally fairly good particularly when it comes to short ranging of Atlantic Westerly regimes for say 4-5 days head. Thereafter, I find it falls away somewhat in reliability with a tendency to exaggerate depth of Low pressures and over progressiveness. It handles blocking situations to the NE less well, especially in Winter. The fact that it runs four times per day can sway people's views that it often is better than it actually is as it has two additional sets of data fed in that the General Public can see at 06z and 18z.

UKMO is usually the form horse that I put my short term faith in. It is nearly always spot on within the 72hour timeframe with the usual less reliability factors coming into play thereafter. The 144hr chart is often somewhat suspect and can swing as frequently as GFS at that range. I do feel it's strengths are best displayed in cold blocking situations such as the period approaching and once inside t96hrs it rarely sways.

ECM is the best model for longer term trends and through my experience over the years I find it rather more reliable in the t144 to t240 hr range than GFS and having found a trend generally sticks to it. One of the notable exceptions was of course the raging Easterly it showed in December but that really was a rare debacle from an otherwise well respected model by me. It though like UKMO handles blocking situations relatively well and certainly better than GFS.

Of the others I find GEM generally relatively good for verification which falls off quite quickly later in its ranges. The other models I do not profess to look at much but fom what I have read here and elsewhere they don't appear to be of the standard of the above in our little corner of the World.

On a final note remember models are just Mathematical calculations based upon a million of starting values which compute to what we see. They all get it wrong at times and this is where the faxes are a valuable human tool in fine lining the shorter term outlooks.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Gibby

[Elyissus]

I'm quite looking forward to Sunday as we're meant to be getting a bit of a thunderstorm in Cornwall

[Coast]

On a final note remember models are just Mathematical calculations based upon a million of starting values which compute to what we see. They all get it wrong at times and this is where the faxes are a valuable human tool in fine lining the shorter term outlooks.

Thank you Gibby, you bring a sense of being unbiased and telling it 'how it is', not how you want it be. I for one welcome your regular analysis and views throughout the forum.

[noonoo418]

According to Meto forecast looking pretty much like summer here on Sunday, wet and cold!!!

[A.J]

Yes we ahve our moments to be thankful but they're not that much better than Torbay who have awesome thunderstorms!

Torbay used to have awesome thunderstorms, not so much these days though....I remember when I was but a youth watching spectacular spanish plume elevated storms drift up across the channel to hit in the early hours, and I'd walk up to Berry Head to watch them (I lived right next to St Mary's Bay so it was only a short walk!)

The sea fog used to cause havoc though in the summer afternoons though. It would drift over Sharkham Point and make it feel cold and clammy, whilst a couple of miles inland would see blazing hot sun!