South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Don't take the M4 corridor analogy with any seriousness just yet, Ian stresses the uncertainties and complexities of this event. What looks quite certain is that quite a wide area of the country will be at risk of snowfall falling or/and accumulating by Tuesday.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't quite understand the obsession with the M4 myself but I have seen the Berkshire/Wiltshire (Wessex downs) make a diferrence in the past.

10 inches up on the downs and nothing just a few miles South with me in Newbury, but that's just the way things go sometimes.

For the record, I just had to hide one or two posts in here so I would grateful if we could get back to discussing the weather without too much intended/unattended innuendo.

Edited February 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

What looks quite certain is that quite a wide area of the country will be at risk of snowfall falling or/and accumulating by Tuesday.

That's the key here, by Tuesday. A lot of emphasis has been placed on Sunday, whereas there are possibilities both on Monday and Tuesday of further snowfall in parts of the region.

Both these days would be less marginal too.

[AWD]

Long term is looking interesting tonight to on the ensemble suites of both the GEFS and ECM.

Below are the 850hpa temps for Somerset;

And the surface temps;

Nothing mild there, and with temperatures shown there, I would be confident of further potential snowfall events in the coming weeks, as colder air remains close by. Looking like a colder than averaged month coming up.

[gottolovethisweather]

Long term is looking interesting tonight to on the ensemble suites of both the GEFS and ECM.

Below are the 850hpa temps for Somerset;

And the surface temps;

Nothing mild there, and with temperatures shown there, I would be confident of further potential snowfall events in the coming weeks, as colder air remains close by. Looking like a colder than averaged month coming up.

Hi AWD, any chance you could post up an ECM ensembles chart if possible, although I know they are not that easy to come by. The GFS12z looked good yesterday too, but I think you knew that. I think a cold cold February is on the cards, if nothing else.

[stevofunnelcl]

I live practically right on the M4 so I never really know where I stand!

Have one news reporter on north section of road, getting covered in 50p sized flakes

Second reporter stands on south section in rain/sleet, as he says "well, this is no fun, i'm off for a cup o soup"

I'll probably head off to any action Sunday, can only see rain here

[Dave Kightley]

GFS 18z Is poo. I just have this gut feeling Sunday will not be our time...

Edited February 7, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

That's the key here, by Tuesday. A lot of emphasis has been placed on Sunday, whereas there are possibilities both on Monday and Tuesday of further snowfall in parts of the region.

Both these days would be less marginal too.

Absolutely, and it's virtually impossible for us to pin-point with precision any cold air entrainment phasing, PPN intensity and an accurate depiction of the theta-ew spread etc. Ian touched upon a very interesting point, in that nocturnal cooling of the BL needs to be accounted for in assisting PPN to fall as snow, even with the marginal T850 profiles that ECM and the GM raw data output is throwing our way, surface cold pooling induced by nocturnal boundary and planetary layer cooling and of course evaporative melting (isothermal melt layer induced) PPN. When you consider the amount of variables and complexities that are in a forecast like this, its no wonder that we have to use a degree of manual manipulation to the data-set. A blend of GM and ECM-ens-mean looks good right now, and of course UKMO. Once we have the higher resolution NAE guidance, consistencies and similarities in this guidance suite will be key.

[AWD]

Hi AWD, any chance you could post up an ECM ensembles chart if possible, although I know they are not that easy to come by. The GFS12z looked good yesterday too, but I think you knew that. I think a cold cold February is on the cards, if nothing else.

These are for De Bilt;

The London ens are out at about 23:00 so will post them up when they come out.

[AWD]

Is this Dutch Ryan guy in the MOD thread the new Yamkin or something?

He loves a good ol' ramp don't he. Fair play to him too, nice to have some passion and happiness in there!

[Uncle Gargy]

Should we all run down to Tesco and get those snow shovels that they've been trying to shift?

[Bumpkin]

I sense an army of netweather snow activists accompanied by some motorway destroying tools descending along the M4 this weekend.

I said a month or so back that we ought to dig up the M4 and lay it back down along the bottom of the country.

[AWD]

BANK;

[Bumpkin]

Is this Dutch Ryan guy in the MOD thread the new Yamkin or something?

He loves a good ol' ramp don't he. Fair play to him too, nice to have some passion and happiness in there!

Am I the only one who reads his posts in a Dutch accent?

[gottolovethisweather]

Should we all run down to Tesco and get those snow shovels that they've been trying to shift?

Definitely not getting any lasagnes from them or Aldi, that's for sure.

Neigh chance of that, but there's always a chance of SNOW for quite a bit of this region next week, judging by the current output, although I didn't look at the poo 18z though.

Edited February 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Blizzardof82]

Am I the only one who reads his posts in a Dutch accent?

No, I do it in a Steve McClaren type accent

[gottolovethisweather]

I wonder if there will be a surprise few snowflakes overnight on top of that reported earlier by those at elevation.

There is a fair ole mass of precipitation heading into Wales right now, perhaps it can make it to the Bristol area in the coming hours and perhaps parts of Somerset.

Currently in Newbury, it's 1.7c AT, 1.0c DP, 4mph NNW and a 1016.9mb rising slowly Barometer.

Ok, slightly clutching at straws but you simply cannot say no.

Edited February 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Courtesy of Nick F from the SE and East Anglia thread, but this should very much be taken on board.

As I mentioned in MOD, the track of the low won't be nailed yet as it doesn't even form until Sunday morning. May not be able to firm up on its track until Saturday morning.

Fingers crossed tonight's ECM and faxes are on the money.

Nevertheless as the time ticks slowly towards the event, we will know more. It has be a positive in itslef that its all over the media at least alongside the usual horse onions meat news.

A tip for you all, don't ever say you're hungry in your local supermarket from now on. Oh I'm starving, I could truly eat a horse. I suppose it's one way for the government to get us to cut down on our meat consumption and eat more sustainbly.

[Nights King]

Darn I leave for a couple of hours and I miss all the inuendo?

So game on still for sunday then although it's going to be a long weekend.... Lets hope the south coast is the new M4 coridor for this event

[gottolovethisweather]

Darn I leave for a couple of hours and I miss all the inuendo?

So game on still for sunday then although it's going to be a long weekend.... Lets hope the south coast is the new M4 coridor for this event

Monday is the day to watch, maybe later on Sunday should the rain turn to snow by late evening. Edited February 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

alrighty then....new thread coming up shortly for the new day, so please finish off any posts

[A.J]

ok....new thread here -------------->

locking this one shortly