South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

[Tamara]

lol - weapons of fear and surprise....*SI subtle connection* All good ingredients for model watching

[john pike]

blasted computer playing up

being a pain at present

be typical this goes on me over the next couple of days and i have to

use my phone

bugger

[Tom Montalbano]

lets show this fax again

this is for mid day on monday

the low is moving east-south east

imagine that has moved say 50 miles in about an hour

that will have all the south east under an easterly wind and a trough over us

the only thing we need is the uppers which we will not see until tomorrow

glad i am not paid to do this

hi tom

was only kidding

i know you know what your doing

should have put a smiley after the warmer air

i am sure you will get what i mean now

No John, I didnt take offence, it takes a lot more to upset me than that! Of course if you want to take it further, we could meet in Croydon for this!

Cheers,

Tom

[john pike]

No John, I didnt take offence, it takes a lot more to upset me than that! Of course if you want to take it further, we could meet in Croydon for this!

Cheers,

Tom

nooooooooooooooooooooooooo

classic mate

[Tom Montalbano]

Hi John,

Yes that last one is my tribute to the Model Discussion Thread.

Thats a disrupting trough, no it isnt, yes it is, no it isnt, yes it is, no a disrupting trough is.........blah, blah, blah.

Night, night all.

Regards,

Tom.

[blackprince]

No John, I didnt take offence, it takes a lot more to upset me than that! Of course if you want to take it further, we could meet in Croydon for this!

Cheers,

Tom

Can I suggest a snowball fight

[john pike]

this one seems like that as well

[Tom Montalbano]

Yes very good, spooky though, as well as working in Croydon, I once worked in Dulwich!

Cheers,

Tom

Edited February 8, 2013 by TomSE20

[john pike]

i am determined not to look until the 12z comes out

problem is this is addictive

who is going to try to stay away until tomorrow afternoon ?

[john pike]

Yes very good, spooky though, as well as working in Croydon, I once worked in Dulwich!

Cheers,

Tom

where about do you work tom

i know your close

pm if you dont want to say on here

[Tom Montalbano]

where about do you work tom

i know your close

pm if you dont want to say on here

Hi John, thats ok, the other end of Croydon from you, near the fly-over, just off the road that goes down to Purley.

Dont you just hate the UHI effect in this town!

Cheers,

Tom

[john pike]

Hi John, thats ok, the other end of Croydon from you, near the fly-over, just off the road that goes down to Purley.

Dont you just hate the UHI effect in this town!

Cheers,

Tom

hi mate

i think i know where you mean

i agree re the uhi

snow one end and something different the other

goodnight mate

talk tomorrow

[john pike]

just before i go

tomorrow night

maybe something wintry ?

looks more kent and parts of anglia

but something worth watching

[ZONE 51]

Done an animation of the GFS 18z Thickness 850-1000 hpa charts Sunday 1800hrs-Monday 1800hrs, shows the system pulling down the colder air as it tracks east/southeast.

(animation at end of post)

Looking through the models it's a potential widespread snow event for our region, depending on track, further south/southeast this then pulling in colder air-mass, i expect the low to track a little more south as it moves across England than what is indicated at present, on Sunday/Monday i see the potential for convective thundery elements to be involved in this strong weather system, for our region i expect it to be a very wet period of weather with rain(FIRST) this through Sunday turning to snow into Monday, IF it does what i think then we can be looking at large snowfalls widespread. Possibly more snowfall Monday night into Tuesday.

Exciting and very interesting set up, one not seen that often, and uncertainty makes it more exciting!

ESS

Edited February 8, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

just before i go

tomorrow night

maybe something wintry ?

looks more kent and parts of anglia

but something worth watching

Yes i think the occluded front weakens across the south tomorow, giving rain/sleet/snow patches across the SE, and as it heads into EA especially then the front increasing in intensity with sleet/snow i would think.

[john pike]

no comments please

gone now goodnight all

[Steve C]

Morning all.

A clear sky here and a temperature of about 0C.

I'm looking forward to whatever later in the weekend, or Monday, may bring (or not as the case may be ) In any case it's now Friday, so

I'll now have a brief look at the models, as I've seen no forecast since yesterday lunchtime...

[Paul Ashford]

Morning all - Top tip, don't watch the BBC forecasts.

[Steve C]

Just had a quick look at midnight model runs (GFS and ECM) Here's my interpretation.

Both imply to me low pressure moving in later in the weekend, bringing rain to our zone (with sleet possible in the north, or over high ground)

ECM then has it likely to change to snow overnight on Sunday for many of us. It would then start to clear south on Monday. The model then brings in an easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the low continues to track SE into the Continent, when there could be more snow - maybe the further east the better as there could be lots of North Sea generated snow showers. Then we come under the influence of a Scandinavian ridge, which will dry things out and keep it cold.

GFS, implies much more of a rain event for us (rather than snow) It also doesn't look so good for the easterly, as it's less pronounced and shorter in duration. There's then an all too brief ridge of high pressure, before the Atlantic steams in later next week.

Haven't looked at Met Office model, as there's already enough uncertainty.

All to play for then to me and another reason to stay away from the MDT for a few hours...

Edited February 8, 2013 by Steve C

[Biensie]

Morning, The Mod Thread seems to be agreeing with BBC Weather this morning. The Midlands and North will be buried in snow and the South will be Rain.

I do hope it changes,.... we all need to do our snow dance.

[Methuselah]

Rain and snow, overnight...Black ice everywhere...

[Croydondazz]

Hi John, thats ok, the other end of Croydon from you, near the fly-over, just off the road that goes down to Purley.

Dont you just hate the UHI effect in this town!

Cheers,

Tom

Tom you work on my doorstep, I live just Sutton side of the five ways

[Coast]

Morning all you weather peeps!

A lovely thick white frost on the car and pavements this morning - clear skies and a nice sunrise too

I haven't looked at any models, data or applicable threads since yesterday afternoon, dare I do so or just wait for Sunday and whatever happens?

Edited February 8, 2013 by Coast

[saint]

Morning all, temps must have really dropped away after the snow and rain last night as it is very icy. We still have a light dusting on cars, roofs, grass and certain paths after the unexpected snow yesterday evening.

[Paul Ashford]

BBC graphics changed, now showing the snow moving south