South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

[Snowangel-MK]

Please use this thread for your discussions about the current weather or what is being forecast for the next few days in the South East and East Anglia...please remember these regional threads were set up to talk about local conditions and your thoughts on how things are panning out so can we keep things light and topical and avoid any personal remarks - Thanks!!

Link to the previous one here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75790-south-east-and-east-anglia-regional-discussion-31st-january-2013/page__st__780

[john pike]

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

updated ecm ensembles for london

looking cold

[pandit-scholar]

According to Ian Ferguson on the models thread it looks like the west and midlands will only get the heaviest snow on Sunday despite the ECM and UKMO showing the East and Southeast getting the heaviest. I hope the East and southeast doesn't miss out again

[john pike]

According to Ian Ferguson on the models thread it looks like the west and midlands will only get the heaviest snow on Sunday despite the ECM and UKMO showing the East and Southeast getting the heaviest. I hope the East and southeast doesn't miss out again

hi mate

monday is our best day

not sunday

[Tamara]

According to Ian Ferguson on the models thread it looks like the west and midlands will only get the heaviest snow on Sunday despite the ECM and UKMO showing the East and Southeast getting the heaviest. I hope the East and southeast doesn't miss out again

Far too early for detail yet - there will be several assessments to come over the days ahead and the areas with best chance of snow will be both expanded and contracted from one place to another

Edited February 6, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Mark Neal.]

Roll on Sunday into Monday: I've done very well this winter, snowise so very satisfied. Anything to come will be added bonus :-)

[ZONE 51]

Not my road this morning...

Looking interesting late weekend/early next week we could get the right set-up for significant snowfall across our region, the timing cannot be pinpointed yet and the amounts of snow can be estimated to a certain extent using the models, but really we can only say a risk of significant snowfall.

[ZONE 51]

According to Ian Ferguson on the models thread it looks like the west and midlands will only get the heaviest snow on Sunday despite the ECM and UKMO showing the East and Southeast getting the heaviest. I hope the East and southeast doesn't miss out again

I always stick with the models that indicate snow 0;

[john pike]

Heavy, blustery wintry showers will affect parts of eastern and northeastern England from Wednesday morning. Accumulations of snow are likely to be quite small over low-lying areas until the overnight period, when 1-3 cm may occur away from the immediate coast. However, over higher ground, for example the North York Moors and Wolds, accumulations of snow around 5 to 10 cm may build up.

Icy stretches will also develop on untreated surfaces during Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, especially to travel.

updated at 11.55

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html

[Kentspur]

If this does occur I would go as far to say for the South east corner this has been so far the most frustrating winter i can remember with so many failed promising charts, keeping my fingers crossed for a good old easterly to save the day

According to Ian Ferguson on the models thread it looks like the west and midlands will only get the heaviest snow on Sunday despite the ECM and UKMO showing the East and Southeast getting the heaviest. I hope the East and southeast doesn't miss out again

[Biggin]

Moderate rain shower atm, nothing mixed in it yet.

[Iceni]

Regarding snow next week.

What is the turnaround at Gatwick airport from snow falling to resuming flights again?

Say the snow fell on Monday, would it be more or less ok by Wednesday?

We're booked to fly to Jersey for my uncle's funeral on Wednesday and my Dad is flying out with my sister the day before… He's 94 and couldn't take a long wait when the flight's delayed.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Iceni

[fatyido]

Latest bbc news 24 forecast for today, doesnt forsee much in the way of snow showers in our region, despite the icy winds. Mostly of rain, with alittle sleet or wet snow mixed in with the heavier bursts. Their idea of wintery showers is cold rain, not quite the same as mine. !

Edited February 6, 2013 by fatyido

[Coast]

What is the turnaround at Gatwick airport from snow falling to resuming flights again?

I guess you are going to have to contact the relevant airport to check it out. As with a few posts in this region recently, you shouldn't rely on any information in here to catch flights or plan other trips that may or may not be affected by the weather. If you have any doubts or concerns about your ability to travel from or to a terminus on a certain day, please contact your specific travel provider (airport, airline, train company etc).

Good morning everyone!

[Coast]

If this does occur I would go as far to say for the South east corner this has been so far the most frustrating winter i can remember with so many failed promising charts, keeping my fingers crossed for a good old easterly to save the day

and as GFS has been getting a bashing in the MOD thread recently (not sure what it's done to deserve that!!) I'll start with what they have from the overnight output.

Sunday:

Monday:

[Methuselah]

Good morning, peeps...

Snow has all melted, the sun is out, and the MOD thread is strange...

[Coast]

and the MOD thread is strange...

Ah, it must be Wednesday then!

[tight isobar]

00z, runs somewhat, dilute even dissregard poss snow event sun/mon. With all but ukmo, easterly incursion fadeing...However again 00z output and can struggle when firming is call of the day.plenty chance yet for resolve. And may well see thingsback ön course even by end of play today....need those 850,s in place, and warm sector non exisist...all to play for..

[nanu]

Ah, it must be Wednesday then!

Id change the name of the model discussion thread to the model moaning thread.. dont think theres been a happy soul in there all week so far!!

[Coast]

00z, runs somewhat, dilute even dissregard poss snow event sun/mon. With all but ukmo, easterly incursion fadeing...However again 00z output and can struggle when firming is call of the day.plenty chance yet for resolve. And may well see thingsback ön course even by end of play today....need those 850,s in place, and warm sector non exisist...all to play for..

I'm not sure if this is just a new trend that models are picking up or the actual weather that's coming. The hi-res models start to come into range in the next couple of days and will guide us to a more accurate idea as we get closer to anything that the weekend and Monday has to offer.

Id change the name of the model discussion thread to the model moaning thread.. dont think theres been a happy soul in there all week so far!!

I'm going to leak some nitrous oxide under the door into there!!

Edited February 6, 2013 by Coast

[Simonl]

If this does occur I would go as far to say for the South east corner this has been so far the most frustrating winter i can remember with so many failed promising charts, keeping my fingers crossed for a good old easterly to save the day

I have to concur other areas are being spoilt compared to us.....

[Guest bjaykent]

Id change the name of the model discussion thread to the model moaning thread.. dont think theres been a happy soul in there all week so far!!

I just posted the UKMO & ECM charts at 144 in there, which in most winters people would bite your hand off to see but sadly I think most are away from their computers slitting their wrists LOL. If it snows I will be happy, if it rains I will only be slightly less happy

Edited February 6, 2013 by bjaykent

[Simonl]

I'm not sure if this is just a new trend that models are picking up or the actual weather that's coming. The hi-res models start to come into range in the next couple of days and will guide us to a more accurate idea as we get closer to anything that the weekend and Monday has to offer.

I'm going to leak some nitrous oxide under the door into there!!

Model thread posters have been 'dislikeing' the GFS simply because it has not shown the slider low that well compared to the others. ECM and UKMO have been calling an easterly for some time now...GFS had started showing the slider low to a lesser degree...This morning, it seems as though all models other than UKMO have backed down on the idea of cold.....Maybe, as someone suggested, this could be the 'wobble' before something better? Thoughts Coast?

Edited February 6, 2013 by Simonl

[Coast]

MetO precip charts aren't currently in range from my sources, but Friday night into Saturday morning is looking like:

[Guest bjaykent]

and as GFS has been getting a bashing in the MOD thread recently (not sure what it's done to deserve that!!) I'll start with what they have from the overnight output.

Sunday:

Monday:

The funniest comment in the mod thread I have seen this week is that if GFS proves to be right it will only be by default. Talk about can't win. Alright it has had a poor time of it of late but at least it it runs its model out to 384hrs & 4 times a day and makes all its data freely available for us to complain at. .