wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[keithlucky]

Fantastic ECM big snow event on course to hit Wales on the 22nd WINTER IS ON it"s way back big time -8 uppers this time next week with lying snow and good hard frosts.

[keithlucky]

Anybody fancy a stalling LP reaching S Wales ?

Edited February 14, 2013 by keithlucky

[Panayiotis]

Anybody fancy a stalling LP reaching S Wales ?

Snowy chart, it is 8 days away but im seeing this cold pattern will be better than the one we have just had! Notice the PV over eastern Scandi if we get the awaited retrogression then boy oh boy we will be in a very cold pattern! Edited February 14, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

Very good to see what the ECM is actually showing. With regards to that chart, a beauty of a chart, next chart would be better. The chart above shows a great slider low but precip would probably not reach Wales at that stage, actual forecast for Cardiff from 12z ECM shows overcast for the date shown on that chart and a high of +2c but with 0.4mm precip suggesting some very light precipitation. On the Sunday however (24th) so the +240 chart, temp for Cardiff is 0c with snow, wind 8 m/s from the east and precip 4-5mm+.

Edited February 14, 2013 by bradythemole

[judowidow]

No not next weekend due to go to the Nec for Disney on ice with two very excited daughters

[bradymk]

One thing I will say about tonights ECM, as good as it is for snow, the minimum temps this winter have been very poor because of extensive cloud cover during the Jan cold spell. ECM shows another very cold but cloudy spell after the frosty/dry/cold spell at the start of next week. ECM data shows Temps for Cardiff are 1/2c max (v cold) but minimum temperatures are not that low - 0/-1c, with overcast conditions. Anyway it will change.

[freeze for all]

Cracking day here so far! Almost feels like spring in the Sun but a high of 9c so far

[Bobby]

Looks like an easterly flow will be setting up next week and it will be turning colder, about all we know at the moment so not getting excited yet. Could just be a few frosts and wintry showers in the eastern England or a prolonged bitter snowy freeze. Looks like a ripe setup though for battleground scenarios and maybe snow from the east like in Feb 2009, worth keeping an eye on at least. Would be nice for winter to end with a snowy bang.

[keithlucky]

Very good to see what the ECM is actually showing. With regards to that chart, a beauty of a chart, next chart would be better. The chart above shows a great slider low but precip would probably not reach Wales at that stage, actual forecast for Cardiff from 12z ECM shows overcast for the date shown on that chart and a high of +2c but with 0.4mm precip suggesting some very light precipitation. On the Sunday however (24th) so the +240 chart, temp for Cardiff is 0c with snow, wind 8 m/s from the east and precip 4-5mm+.

Edited February 15, 2013 by keithlucky

[bradymk]

It is quite hard getting through to some people on the model thread this evening about 850 temps not telling the full story in this setup. From Wednesday onwards, ECM 12z data shows that Cardiff never gets above 2c. Min temps 0/-1c with max temps 2c. Dry also for Cardiff until Monday 25th (240 chart) where some light precip reaches Wales but nothing much. As Steve M said earlier, the 240 chart shows a potential incoming blizzard for the south west.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Nice to see clear skies at night for a change.

Temp : -0.6c

DP : -1.9c

Edited February 15, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[virtualsphere]

It is quite hard getting through to some people on the model thread this evening about 850 temps not telling the full story in this setup. From Wednesday onwards, ECM 12z data shows that Cardiff never gets above 2c. Min temps 0/-1c with max temps 2c. Dry also for Cardiff until Monday 25th (240 chart) where some light precip reaches Wales but nothing much. As Steve M said earlier, the 240 chart shows a potential incoming blizzard for the south west.

I expect a lot of those concerned about the 850s are in the eastern side of the UK and so looking for the best possible convective easterly setup, while as things stand at the moment our position here in the west may be favoured with an undercutting low scenario. Still plenty of time for things to change but as you say, 850s less of an issue for us and more important to continue to see the block positioned correctly for any Atlantic attack to slide underneath - but not too far south to miss us entirely!

Edited February 16, 2013 by virtualsphere

[bradymk]

I expect some a lot of those concerned about the 850s are in the eastern side of the UK and so looking for the best possible convective easterly setup, while as things stand at the moment our position here in the west may be favoured with an undercutting low scenario. Still plenty of time for things to change but as you say, 850s less of an issue for us and more important to continue to see the block positioned correctly for any Atlantic attack to slide underneath - but not too far south to miss us entirely!

Yes great post, its all about imby.

[andymusic]

Well folks here we go again - the last nasty push of the cold from the east this time - looks a real hum dinger and sources tell me it'll push all the way into march this time - lots of lovely freezing temps and probably lots of major snowfall - could very well be the worst this winter - so get your thermals ready - stock up those food cupboards - get the heating systems sorted - and get ready for the snow - snow mobiles available here - 5 star ski resort will be in it's planning stages shortly - e-mailed the ski council for Wales and they seem all for my idea - incidentally guess who had a personal letter off of the 1st minister for Wales - Carwyn Jones - me - I was in shock after I received it - it was amazing - personally addressed and signed - on my ideas for the nhs - and about his invite to me concert in march!

[welshwizard]

well another fantastic winters day, cold crisp morn and sun to warm us up a bit as the day goes on. yest was superb day we managed to sort out some jobs in garden and put logs into log store getting ready for next winter. going to need a lot more mind and they getting hard to come by now,anyone know reasonable prices for logs? don't need to be seasoned as I got room to store. I love this weather dry and sunny makes me smile in the morns long may the crisp cold sunny days continue.looks interesting next week.

[keithlucky]

We heading for the coldest spell of weather starting Wednesday with a bitter cold wind wind kicking in with day time temps of best 3c feeling like -3 in the windchill ,from Thursday onwards the chance of snow showers .

Edited February 16, 2013 by keithlucky

[bradymk]

Latest EC is very cold with daytime maxes 2c max for cardiff, some days colder. Also a drier run for Wales as we do not have the slider low like on yesterdays runs so mainly dry, best chance of snow is from disturbances pepping up in the unstable flow. Quite strong easterly winds also making it feel bitter.

[TonyH]

Yes the low to the sw was always a long shot.

[keithlucky]

Yes the low to the sw was always a long shot.

Nice though the possibility of a 1991 repeat let"s enjoy a break from the bloody rain!

[snefnug]

Beautiful day yesterday, drove across over Bala to Dolgellau and round to Mach, sea was like blue opal. Back home over the tops, in beautiful sunshine, ending up at The West Arms in Llanarmon DC, for pint in front of crackling log fire.......today, very cold, grey with promise of blue skies. Therms washed and ready for icemaggedon next week.......

Edited February 16, 2013 by snefnug

[blackrose73]

Surprisingly cold here today - still only 2.2ºC

EDIT: Hmmm. I think my weather station may be broken lol

Edited February 16, 2013 by blackrose73

[TonyH]

Nice though the possibility of a 1991 repeat let"s enjoy a break from the bloody rain!

Cold probably, very cold possibly, snow possibly, 1991 no chance..two weeks of deep snow and largely sub zero temps! We are approaching March which will not help.

Early Feb 1991:

And the worst projected outcome from next weeks spell (still 6 days away mind):

Today is the third dry day in a row!

Edited February 16, 2013 by TonyH

[J10]

I think the problem so far this winter has been the South West, and indeed Wales for the matter has always been on the edge of the cold and any real continental influence, so this has made any snowfall marginal, as is often the case.

Hopefully this time, the cold and continental influence will get much further west making any snowfall less marginal for most. Certainly latest models see the cold going way past Ireland, and covering the whole of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1682.png sees the cold going all the way to the west of the UK.

As others have said getting the cold in is the first step, and a spell of mainly dry weather is not to be sniffed at either.

No comparison to 1991 for me either.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Jackone

[TonyH]

A lot of very interesting debate in the MOD today concerning how convective or not this cold snap is likely to be. Concensus seems to be that as high pressure is trending closer to the UK, pressure will be too high for much, and that any heavy snow showers will be restricted to the SE. However we are still almost a week off with this and further changes will occur, and we all know that snow surprises often crop up at short notice, but we will need lower pressure/ troughs for this out west.

Edited February 16, 2013 by TonyH

[TonyH]

This shows how little precipitation may be in the offing during the next 10 days: