wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[Coast]

Please continue your regional weather discussion here.

[Phantom2]

Current conditions Rhoose: QNH1021 wind gusting 6mph, temp 5.3c

[Bobby]

I thinking an all snow event for Sunday/Monday is now looking a long shot, a rain to snow event though looks more likely. ECM looks snowy potentially late Sunday into Tuesday.

Sunday night

Monday night

I'd eat my hat if we didn't see snow from that, deep LP nearby, screaming easterlies, cold uppers, contintental flow.

GFS 06z bit rubbish though, 00z was more snowy. UKMO looks a bit dodgy too, further west please.

Also GFS and NMM hinting at snow later today for the hills of Wales though how well anything will settle is another thing, we'll see.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Bobby

[bradymk]

Hope everyone has seen Ian F comments in SW thread. There is also a severe weather warning for all of Wales Sunday and Monday.

[mikeocarroll]

Wales Snow

Issued at: 1138 on Thu 7 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

There is a risk that a band of rain spreading from the southwest during Sunday will turn to sleet and snow. There is the potential for accumulations up to 10 cm in places and the public should be aware of possible disruption to travel.

[Ginkrots]

Amazing how much snow we could still be getting, after an already big snow event in January..

Some years in Newport we barely see a snow shower and 2 hours of settling snow. This winter is far from average, for here at least.

[marclt]

I'd say it might be marginal, especially further west at this stage. Be good if things changed!

[Gee]

Also Monday:

WALES - Snow

Issued at: 1139 on Thu 7 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow will gradually clear from the northwest. There is the potential for further accumulations of up to 10 cm in places and ice will increasingly become a hazard. The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel.

[bradymk]

I feel that this time, it will not be so much of a west/east split in Wales. As the colder air undercuts later Sunday and into Monday, it will turn precip to snow and also push the precipitation also back westwards. As long as forecasts stay the same, most of Wales should enjoy some snow at this stage. Where it will be heaviest/accumulate most I can not answer at this stage. Key thing is "As long as forecasts stay the same" Further west you are, later it will turn to snow but with the precip pushing back, west will also see it stop last.

Edited February 7, 2013 by bradythemole

[mikeocarroll]

Temp has fallen here to 3.8c, after a high of 5.5c this morning. The odd drop of rain in the air at the moment, might well turn sleety or snowier in heavier bursts later this afternoon.

[dingdong]

Would normally agree mike, temps this evening widely around 0c with uppers if between -8c and -6c, however DP's of +1c to +3c will scupper chances of sleey/snow.

Still. Looking at the output Sunday through next Thursday I'm not going to complain

DD

[mikeocarroll]

Would normally agree mike, temps this evening widely around 0c with uppers if between -8c and -6c, however DP's of +1c to +3c will scupper chances of sleey/snow.

Still. Looking at the output Sunday through next Thursday I'm not going to complain

DD

Temps will be more than 0c unfortunately otherwise we'd be in business; the dewpoint is never high than the temperature.

[keithlucky]

I thinking an all snow event for Sunday/Monday is now looking a long shot, a rain to snow event though looks more likely. ECM looks snowy potentially late Sunday into Tuesday.

Sunday night

Monday night

I'd eat my hat if we didn't see snow from that, deep LP nearby, screaming easterlies, cold uppers, contintental flow.

GFS 06z bit rubbish though, 00z was more snowy. UKMO looks a bit dodgy too, further west please.

Also GFS and NMM hinting at snow later today for the hills of Wales though how well anything will settle is another thing, we'll see.

Yes key word screaming easterlies winds coming from Poland were max temps are -1 higher areas such as Mount Olympus (were our weather god Andy lives)will do well in this set up his snow mobile will be used Lol.

[Marcus_surfer]

Got to be careful at e moment as things are gonna change for better or worse and in the end it will all come down to nowcasting.

[mikeocarroll]

Steady drizzle here despite my optimism. It seems that just hoping for snow doesn't make it happen ! Temp 4.0c, dp 0.5c. Some heavier precip would help but looks like the heavy stuff is missing to the south.

[howmuchsnow]

We had a dusting of snow at 8.00am this morning. Now wet, light rain 3.4c, temperature fallen 0.5c in last half hour!

[Panayiotis]

Im expecting Sundays accumulations to be bigger than what we had in January and there is the possibility of further troughs throughout next week which would top up the snow, as many say, watch this space!

[blackrose73]

Snowing on the Bwlch mountain at the moment but rain down here in the valley.

EDIT: Turning to sleet now in Nantymoel, but I'm not expecting much out of this.

Edited February 7, 2013 by blackrose73

[mickeyflyn]

last two forecasts on the bbc one said significant snow for sunday then the next said disruptive snow for the same day !

[Bonjangle]

last two forecasts on the bbc one said significant snow for sunday then the next said disruptive snow for the same day !

So all in all its going to be Significant and Disruptive then .

[Bobby]

GFS 12z is better than the 06z, rain at first but turning to snow late Sunday and into Monday. Then a second load of heavy snow moves in from the E as the low wraps around, could be a fair bit of snow

GEM also tasty, just what we want to see with the low sliding south giving us something that looks like the big January fall

Lots of snowy potential from Sunday, haven't a clue about the details yet though as does nobody

[mickeyflyn]

So all in all its going to be Significant and Disruptive then .

Yes and i could even be snow !!

[dbaloo]

well im looking forward to the snow if it comes.might call andy music and get a snow mobile!

[Bobby]

GFS ensembles look a fair bit better for us Taffs with a lot more slider snow events than recent ensembles, seems to be a trend to move the low further SW which is good to see.

[mikeocarroll]

Temp has fallen away here just 1.9c and dp -0.8c, but still drizzle no matter how hard I stare at it :-) Would be snow if the precip was heavier. Sunday/Monday looking good.