wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[Clare81]

you often hear people say that we get Americas weather 3-4 weeks later. Is there any truth in it?

Edited February 8, 2013 by Clare81

[J10]

you often hear people say that we get Americas weather 3-4 weeks later. Is there any truth in it?

No

Tonight's NAE has things a bit further west and as a result things look a bit better more especially again for those in North Wales, with some snow pixels already in place at 6pm. As the front would pivot,I would expect snow to develop more widely there and perhaps further south as it would edge further south later in the evening, quite possibly into Mid Wales.

I would like to have seen more of the run to have seen where that would have taken us.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Jackone

[Gavla]

you often hear people say that we get Americas weather 3-4 weeks later. Is there any truth in it?

i wish it was true but sadly i dont think theres any truth it, sayin that i want that snow storm they are havin in 3 weeks please

Edited February 8, 2013 by Gavla

[welshwizard]

it is true but it norm turns to rain by time it gets here ha ha

i wish it was true but sadly i dont think theres any truth it, sayin that i want that snow storm they are havin in 3 weeks please

it is true but it norm turns to rain by time it gets here ha ha

[Bobby]

Looks like this snow event isn't going to happen here and I can't see where any proper cold or snow is going to come from into next week and beyond, that takes us to the last days of winter. There's very little cold air over Europe to tap into. So am getting close to calling it a day on this winter. Not quite checkmate yet but getting close. Might get a few frosts, been few and far between this winter.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Bobby

[TonyH]

Can't see it being a snow event Sunday/ Monday for west and south Wales, the usual suspects further east and north and higher up may get some.

[J10]

Chances have certainly risen for all of Wales on tonight's runs, would have liked to have seen tonight's NAE go out further for reasons already explained, chance of back edge snow more likely.

The fat lady has gone away for tonight.

Still though odds against and quite a few more steps needed, be interesting to see what tomorrow's charts bring.

[Panayiotis]

Chances have certainly risen for all of Wales on tonight's runs, would have liked to have seen tonight's NAE go out further for reasons already explained, chance of back edge snow more likely.

The fat lady has gone away for tonight.

Still though odds against and quite a few more steps needed, be interesting to see what tomorrow's charts bring.

Hopefully we will see further SW corrections as this has been evident today, from this mornings shift north. If the low shifts north overnight it can certainly go south. We need those corrections or we will only see rain for most of mid Wales south! Edited February 8, 2013 by Panayiotis

[dingdong]

Much better placement of the low so far this morning. This is illustrated by nae. Looking at 00z 42 compared to 18z 48, then backed up by the 0z 48 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Gfs has low further north still, but positioning is better than yesterday's. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=0

Still impossible to call, but would imagine the warning yellow area come 11:30 will be further south.

Wrt the moaning of the warning yesterday, pleae remember to check the impact charts. The impact chart on Thursday was ticked as ' low chance of happening' but with a ' high impact' if it did. Don't just assume yellow warning =snow or something will happen. As a result of the warning we have made changes to our work pattern on Monday. Now if it does not snow nothing is lost and it is bau as a few things have been jigged about. If it does snow bad Sunday night, and there was no warning originally put in place we would not be able to operate viably as a profitable business Monday as it would be too late to make changes

DD

Edited February 9, 2013 by dingdong

[keithlucky]

Much better placement of the low so far this morning. This is illustrated by nae. Looking at 00z 42 compared to 18z 48, then backed up by the 0z 48 http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Gfs has low further north still, but positioning is better than yesterday's. http://www.meteociel...?&ech=48&mode=0

Still impossible to call, but would imagine the warning yellow area come 11:30 will be further south.

Wrt the moaning of the warning yesterday, pleae remember to check the impact charts. The impact chart on Thursday was ticked as ' low chance of happening' but with a ' high impact' if it did. Don't just assume yellow warning =snow or something will happen. As a result of the warning we have made changes to our work pattern on Monday. Now if it does not snow nothing is lost and it is bau as a few things have been jigged about. If it does snow bad Sunday night, and there was no warning originally put in place we would not be able to operate viably as a profitable business Monday as it would be too late to make changes

DD

Yes a further correction S Westwards and we could see all of Wales getting some snow ,it looks like from central Wales north Wales will get a fair amount of snow settling snow is another matter .heavy wet snow for most with high ground getting plastered! as met suggests

Sunday:

Remaining cold with persistent rain and hill snow. Snow becoming heavier and potentially disruptive, even to lower levels across the northeast later in the afternoon and overnight into Monday. Maximum temperature 7 °C.

[benb]

Yes- focus for snow seems to be further south-

From the NAE forecast, there's not actually that much precipitation across Wales, away from the far SW.

If this happens will the low be too far west/south for significant snow across much of Wales?

Edited February 9, 2013 by benb

[keithlucky]

Pity that we lost the raw easterly as was forecast a few days ago we seem to be stuck in between to weather masses we need HP to push further south instead of meandering around.

Edited February 9, 2013 by keithlucky

[welshwizard]

I cant see any snow for south and west wales and only the very high ground in east as the temps they just showed for Wales on bbc weather are way to high, plus 7 for most of south. maybe foggybrynna was correct that winter is over as the nights are getting lighter now and temps are warmer sun is getting stronger and no real cold about for near future im not saying we wont have some snow but winter looks like its starting to fade away now.

[welshwizard]

I just saw the forecast on bbc and it has changed? they just showed snow going from east to west on sunday night and that was around mid wales but he did say this could shift south and to keep checking but he did say 2 to 5cm.

[CRACKPOT]

The 'snow' that is coming in is not going to be as intense or widespread as first thought - the band is going to be narrow and not that heavy - so it is looking likely to be a surprise if anyone gets even 5cm the way it is being 'watered' down in the intensity.

Can see this passing through overnight with little or no evidence next morning (Monday) of it having even existed as a snow band!

JK

[mikeocarroll]

The 'snow' that is coming in is not going to be as intense or widespread as first thought - the band is going to be narrow and not that heavy - so it is looking likely to be a surprise if anyone gets even 5cm the way it is being 'watered' down in the intensity.

Can see this passing through overnight with little or no evidence next morning (Monday) of it having even existed as a snow band!

JK

Agree with that unfortunately; even the most favoured areas of Wales (north-east) are unlikley to get anything like the snow that most parts of Wales got in January, a few cm is the best we can hope for, and we have another 36 hours of cold rain to get through before we get that.

[keithlucky]

Agree with that unfortunately; even the most favoured areas of Wales (north-east) are unlikley to get anything like the snow that most parts of Wales got in January, a few cm is the best we can hope for, and we have another 36 hours of cold rain to get through before we get that.

Not what the met are saying heavy snow for N Wales Wrexham looks prime spot interesting to see who is right.

[Bobby]

Agree with that unfortunately; even the most favoured areas of Wales (north-east) are unlikley to get anything like the snow that most parts of Wales got in January, a few cm is the best we can hope for, and we have another 36 hours of cold rain to get through before we get that.

Also agree, doubt even the favoured spots in England will get all that much either. Some consolation lol.

First snow on NAE appearing in Wales around midnight but hardly any precip by then

NMM not much either, looks marginal even in the places that may get snow

[J10]

NAE 00Hz was a big upgrade for mid and south Wales, but 06Hz was less good, keeping the colder air away longer

00Hz

http://expert-images...021100_0900.gif

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

06Hz

http://expert-images...021100_0906.gif

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

As you can see the colder air gets across Wales quicker on the 00Hz giving increased snow potential.

Precipitation amounts are an issue, but given that yesterday was forecasting a lot of precip into Northern England, This still isn't nailed,

Even if we don't get anything, and down here that is still more than likely, very interesting to see this from a synoptic point of view, and hopefully some parts of Wales will get some snow.

By the way, winter isn't over yet, we are still in the first 3rd of February, there have been winters in the past, with much worse synoptics at this stage, which still gave wintry weather after this point.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Jackone

[J10]

Weather Watch has been updated - covering much of East Wales apart from the South East.

http://www.metoffice...Time=1360324860

Early rain over western Britain is expected to turn to snow as it spreads eastwards during Sunday. Snow cover is likely to be very variable,

with some places seeing little settling, others 2-4 cm, and with the potential for 10 cm or more over parts of the Midlands, Kent an Essex,

especially later in the day. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption, particularly to travel.

It does appear that snow amounts are generally less than in yesterday's forecast.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Jackone

[Uncle Gargy]

The BBC are bigger snow rampers than we are! It's all gone wrong and they are hyping it up too much now.

[Ginkrots]

Some areas of S and SE Wales have light sleet/snow forecast on the M.O website for Monday morning. Better than rain or nothing at all.

There may be more upgrades.. I hope.

[Panayiotis]

Post from the south west thread from AWD.

Looks better for us in SE Wales, could these upgrades continue though? I sure hope so!

Well well well;

Interesting for some of us!

Very interesting indeed!

This is the snow accumulation for 48hrs, move it 50miles west and we could be in the fun and games!

Edited February 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bradymk]

Some v interesting developments for Western Wales for Monday night into Tuesday. GFS not really showing it, UKMO and NMM do.

Edited February 9, 2013 by bradythemole

[Ginkrots]

Post from the south west thread from AWD.

Looks better for us in SE Wales, could these upgrades continue though? I sure hope so!

This is the snow accumulation for 48hrs, move it 50miles west and we could be in the fun and games!

Ohh snow for Newport + Cardiff? Too good to be true?