wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[Ginkrots]

im not trying to cause trouble now but who does think winter could be over as far as snow (sticking around snow)? if you remember Foggybrynna did have quite a few people question his post only a few days ago, but there does seem to be quite a few now who think the same. if there is snow going to come today due to heights it norm comes right behind my house on the bwlch so will keep checking later today but to be honest I cant see any snow coming now (I may be wrong) temps are way to high. I think that's it for snow sticking around, we may have one or 2 little dustings like we had few days ago but as for proper snow time is moving away now. looks like we back to the rainy season ha ha. it does not seem to take much rain now for the streams to start back up on the mountain. few years ago there was only 7 runs coming down now when it rains there are 11 and when we have days of rain there are much much more. we do need a long dry spell as the ground is full of water.

We could still have lots of snow to come, but you are right about it not sticking around. The chances of sticking snow are decreasing day on day with the suns rays getting stronger. Especially the closer to sea level you are.

Anyway it's currently pouring down with rain here. I can barely see S Wales on the radar!

[welshwizard]

We could still have lots of snow to come, but you are right about it not sticking around. The chances of sticking snow are decreasing day on day with the suns rays getting stronger. Especially the closer to sea level you are.

Anyway it's currently pouring down with rain here. I can barely see S Wales on the radar!

yes same here lots and lots of this lvly rain, can u imagine if in winter our rain was snow, we would be cut off for ever. being stuck in with the wife and kids for weeks on end that sounds fab ha ha,but worse for them being stuck in with me lol.

[dingdong]

Well after resigning myself to a rain only event nae throws up this.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Surely not, it can't do. Can it?

Edit; has a bit if backing from the NMM

DD

Edited February 10, 2013 by dingdong

[Jayfromcardiff]

Quite a big upgrade from the NAE on the latest run! believe it when i see it though, however some chance is better than none.

[Gorky101]

Well after resigning myself to a rain only event nae throws up this.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Surely not, it can't do. Can it?

Edit; has a bit if backing from the NMM

DD

Massive upgrade for south wales and again below, I expect this could be adjusted even further westwards to tie in with NAE above

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/02/10/basis00/ukuk/rart/13021100_2_1000.gif

[keithlucky]

Well after resigning myself to a rain only event nae throws up this.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Surely not, it can't do. Can it?

Edit; has a bit if backing from the NMM

DD

Question is how much precipitation will be left?

[bradymk]

A big upgrade for parts of south wales on latest NAE however i think this will be more falling snow rather than accumulating snow.

[CRACKPOT]

A big upgrade for parts of south wales on latest NAE however i think this will be more falling snow rather than accumulating snow.

Well put - that's the key and theme - any snow will not stick - will just be falling and causing no problems on saturated ground. I am still sceptical though.

JK

[keithlucky]

A big upgrade for parts of south wales on latest NAE however i think this will be more falling snow rather than accumulating snow.

Yes agreed expect after dark a lot of lampost watching around UK!

[bradymk]

Yes agreed expect after dark a lot of lampost watching around UK!

Ian F now saying change in fcast and UKMO expect 60% prob of 5+cm forest of dean, cotswolds, mendips. I would still say lower levels is too marginal for accumulating snow at the moment but altitude and precip intensity will help. You may get settling on grass etc but nothing on roads/pavements

[givemeadangler]

I may be off the mark here but it seems that the precipitation moves in a more SW direction as it clears?

This might bring parts of South Wales at least some hope

[andymusic]

Where is Andy the snowmegedion when you need him?

Bit quiet he has been with all his ramping of the Snow we were going to get .

Is he got egg slapped on his face as he mooshed it up or is he waiting untill may for Snow .

Sorry - I've been ill - picked up a dose of cellulitus - nasty stuff that is - been to a & e 3 times for 9 hours a time - seen 5 - 6 doctors - some of them couldn't even work out what I had - glad I figured it out - cause if I hadn't - my foot or leg might have had to be amputated - flippin idiots! + they also gave me a dose of anti - biotic - but the wrong one and all my arms and legs had a allergic reaction to it - I looked like the alien from hell - really really ill too - and just as I thought I was improving - last night I started to have signs of the norro virus - I threw up about 5 - 6 times - diarhea - just generally weak and feeble - think someone's trying to kill me off - so apologies once again for not posting - but I'm a little weak now but getting better - also went to Blackpool last wednesday for two days on business - Liza recording her music for Sky TV - I'll let you know when it's on - should be early March

Anyway back to the weather - snow tonight and into the morning for me I think

GFS and ECM serving up a nice easterly later on and GFS further in is playing around with northerlies and easterlies - so loads more chances for the cold stuff - well into March I'd say - we have been spoiled this winter!

OH - Liza will be on Radio Wales tomorrow - comemmorating the anniversary of the death of Whitney Houston at 3pm with Louise Elliot - She'll be singing live too and playing a few of her songs also!

Edited February 10, 2013 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

Sorry - I've been ill - picked up a dose of cellulitus - nasty stuff that is - been to a & e 3 times for 9 hours a time - seen 5 - 6 doctors - some of them couldn't even work out what I had - glad I figured it out - cause if I hadn't - my foot or leg might have had to be amputated - flippin idiots! + they also gave me a dose of anti - biotic - but the wrong one and all my arms and legs had a allergic reaction to it - I looked like the alien from hell - really really ill too - and just as I thought I was improving - last night I started to have signs of the norro virus - I threw up about 5 - 6 times - diarhea - just generally weak and feeble - think someone's trying to kill me off - so apologies once again for not posting - but I'm a little weak now but getting better - also went to Blackpool last wednesday for two days on business - Liza recording her music for Sky TV - I'll let you know when it's on - should be early March

Anyway back to the weather - snow tonight and into the morning for me I think

GFS and ECM serving up a nice easterly later on and GFS further in is playing around with northerlies and easterlies - so loads more chances for the cold stuff - well into March I'd say - we have been spoiled this winter!

OH - Liza will be on Radio Wales tomorrow - comemmorating the anniversary of the death of Whitney Houston at 3pm with Louise Elliot - She'll be singing live too and playing a few of her songs also!

Get well soon mate! had the flu the past 2 weeks myself, really had enough haha! trying to battle through it then my asthma starts - maybe some snow will cheer us all up later!

[andymusic]

Get well soon mate! had the flu the past 2 weeks myself, really had enough haha! trying to battle through it then my asthma starts - maybe some snow will cheer us all up later!

I'm sure we'll get another big dose of it before this winters through Jay LOL!

[J10]

This was the type of upgrade I was hoping for, but not expecting in the slightest.

The low pressure is further east, this allows the whole system to pivot and feed in colder easterly winds sooner.

Surface Pressure

http://expert-images...021100_1006.gif

http://expert-images...021106_1006.gif

Precipitation Amounts

http://expert-images...021100_1006.gif

http://expert-images...021106_1006.gif

Rain/Snow

http://expert-images...021100_1006.gif

http://expert-images...021106_1006.gif

Dewpoints

http://expert-images...1100_2_1006.gif

http://expert-images...1103_2_1006.gif

http://expert-images...1106_2_1006.gif

If this comes off and even that is doubtful, some light falling snow possible over southern areas by morning, with some lying snow over higher parts of south east Wales valleys IF this comes off.

Of course, any surface water, will not help snow to settle I know that if snow is heavy enough it will settle on top, but dampness/surface water, never helps any lying snow. Of course localised flooding is also a risk for some parts of SE, due to around 40mm of rain.

A word of caution, this was the 00Hz run

http://expert-images...1106_2_1000.gif at 6am, the heaviest precipitation largely missing Wales, as such so does the heavy snow risk.

I can also understand some people preferring the 00Hz run as less of a flooding risk .

A lot of uncertainty

Edited February 10, 2013 by Jackone

[Panayiotis]

Caution is required as the 00z was nothing like the 06z as Ian says on twitter 12z will be crucial!

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edited February 10, 2013 by Panayiotis

[andymusic]

Developing situation it seems -

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Denbighshire, Monmouthshire, Powys, Wrexham, Carmarthenshire, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, Neath Port Talbot, Newport & Flintshire valid from 0600 Sun 10 Feb to 0700 Mon 11 Feb

SHOUT OUT WHEN YOU HAVE THE WHITE STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY

Edited February 10, 2013 by andymusic

[Ginkrots]

Just goes to show the panic and misery related to snow many days before its forecast to hit is ridiculous! Only take notice 6-12 hours before and even then it's changeable. . .

[Bobby]

I'm in the warning area, not expecting to see much if anything settling though. Some sleetiness over N and Mid Wales already, will keep an eye out for any wintry stuff, just rain now.

[Bobby]

(heads of valleys way)

[mikeocarroll]

I'm in the warning area, not expecting to see much if anything settling though. Some sleetiness over N and Mid Wales already, will keep an eye out for any wintry stuff, just rain now.

Not here yet - temperature rising 4.6c now, dp 2.6c, it's going to be a long wait for snow although I expect most of us will at least see a bit eventually.

Hoping people in Flintshire, Wrexham etc will post when they have sleet/snow, as then I'll know it's on the way.

[keithlucky]

Still no sign of early spring pretty confident of that elusive easterly outbreak around the 18th Feb ,UK Outlook for Monday 25 Feb 2013 to Monday 11 Mar 2013:

Some signs of a colder than average weather type becoming established over the UK for the start of this period. Then, whilst there is, as ever, some uncertainty through this forecast period, generally colder than average conditions are likely to persist across many parts of the UK. Frequent frosty nights are then also expected, and the risk of wintry precipitation is then likely to be slightly greater than average.

Updated: 1147 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

[benb]

Sleeting in corris- 3.7c

[benb]

Fresh snow on Cader Idris 500m asl approx

[Carl46Wrexham]

Not here yet - temperature rising 4.6c now, dp 2.6c, it's going to be a long wait for snow although I expect most of us will at least see a bit eventually.

Hoping people in Flintshire, Wrexham etc will post when they have sleet/snow, as then I'll know it's on the way.

I'll shout out if/when things start to change. Right now it is still (yawn!) raining. Temp stuck at 4.1c with a dew point temp of 3.8c