wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[picog]

This was the type of upgrade I was hoping for, but not expecting in the

Dewpoints

http://expert-images...1100_2_1006.gif

http://expert-images...1103_2_1006.gif

http://expert-images...1106_2_1006.gif

If this comes off and even that is doubtful, some light falling snow possible over southern areas by morning, with some lying snow over higher parts of south east Wales valleys IF this comes off.

Of course, any surface water, will not help snow to settle I know that if snow is heavy enough it will settle on top, but dampness/surface water, never helps any lying snow. Of course localised flooding is also a risk for some parts of SE, due to around 40mm of rain.

A word of caution, this was the 00Hz run

http://expert-images...1106_2_1000.gif at 6am, the heaviest precipitation largely missing Wales, as such so does the heavy snow risk.

I can also understand some people preferring the 00Hz run as less of a flooding risk .

A lot of uncertainty

Nice dew points!

[Bonjangle]

Welcome back Andy and that's bad what happened to you buddie , same happened to my mates wife last week and she is still in agony .

Get well soon Snowbuddie .

Btw looking good for our neck of the woods for some snow

Edited February 10, 2013 by Aquastarmist

[Carl46Wrexham]

1425pm :Temp :3.8c DP : 3.5c Rain.

Cold and wet days like today make me yearn for Spring.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[bradymk]

NAE 12z completely different with no snow for South Wales tonight.

[bradymk]

Remember what I said about Monday night into Tuesday morning, NAE now showing the potential for Wales, west especially.

[georgiedre]

look at how the low has developed in cardigan bay

[bradymk]

V interesting that 12z UKMO-GM also shows precip moving into West Wales Tuesday morning. Hopefully temps wont be too high. PS. Make that GFS too, 3 models now showing it.

Edited February 10, 2013 by bradythemole

[Carl46Wrexham]

1605pm :Temp :3.3c DP : 3.0c Rain (with odd flake of snow beginning to mix in)

Temp dropping at 0.4c per hour.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[pyrotech]

It would seem that a new centre of the Low has formed in Irish Sea about level with Aberwystwyth, that could cause some issues depending how it moves.

Seems to be oval rather than round, so Nae would be about right with this for now

Edited February 10, 2013 by pyrotech

[Marcus_surfer]

Heavy rain most of the day, many roads flooded

[blackrose73]

So what is the latest on tonight's snow?

[georgiedre]

looking like the snow level is falling as i have been waching web cams in and around snowdon

Edited February 10, 2013 by georgiedre

[J10]

NAE 12z completely different with no snow for South Wales tonight.

Indeed, if you look at radar, it looks as if there are a couple of small low pressure system, which makes pivoting unlikely. One benefit of this is that overnight precipitation locally seems to be lower than would otherwise be the case.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/10/basis12/ukuk/prty/13021018_1012.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/10/basis12/ukuk/prty/13021100_1012.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/10/basis12/ukuk/prty/13021106_1012.gif

Still a chance of some snow in Northern and Eastern parts, which generally has been the focus over past days anyway.

The next chart in many ways sums up this winter

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t850&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Just on the edge of the cold weather to the east so it has been cold at times, but never the deep cold.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Jackone

[Carl46Wrexham]

Fields around me flooding yet again, rain still falling...don't care if it snows now...whats the point?

[bradymk]

Indeed, if you look at radar, it looks as if there are a couple of small low pressure system, which makes pivoting unlikely. One benefit of this is that overnight precipitation locally seems to be lower than would otherwise be the case.

http://expert-images...021018_1012.gif

http://expert-images...021100_1012.gif

http://expert-images...021106_1012.gif

Still a chance of some snow in Northern and Eastern parts, which generally has been the focus over past days anyway.

The next chart in many ways sums up this winter

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Just on the edge of the cold weather to the east so it has been cold at times, but never the deep cold.

yes your last sentence is so true, just looking at uppers on that chart, -12 to the east of the UK but we are in the -4 to -6c range, this winter could have produced so much more. Still keeping an eye on Tuesday morning though.

[mikeocarroll]

Temp 4.0c here, down from a max of 5.2c a couple of hours ago. Dp 2.2c, still a long way to go until we're in snow territory, but it is at least falling quite rapidly at the moment, as is the rain!

[mikeocarroll]

NMM my favourite model tonight, shows rain turning to snow within a couple of hours here (Brecons/heads of valleys too) and lasting for a good few hours.

Then it also shows this of interest for Tuesday morning, a band of precip moving in from the NW which should be snow given the uppers and dewpoints at the time:

Not mega precip but if it intensifies (and heads south a bit) then could be good for large parts of Wales (admittedly less so for the south coast of Wales, were most of the population live, but adjustments very possible/probable).

Edit: Just checked NAE and GFS and they show this too - happy days!

Edited February 10, 2013 by mikeocarroll

[TonyH]

A look at the coming weeks weather:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4566-weekly-weather-guide-for-west-wales-and-the-midlands-monday-11th-to-sunday-17th-feb-2013/

[Trickster]

Temperature is dropping fast here now. At 3C, so I am expecting the rain to turn to snow over the next couple of hours

[mikeocarroll]

Yep 3.0c here now too, bits of ice/hail mixed in, getting close, dp 1.4c, could do with a bit less humidity.

[Carl46Wrexham]

1840 pm

Temp : 2.2c DP : 1.9c

Weather : Sleet

Temp still falling at 0.4c per hour rate.

[Gavla]

iam looking at rain today radar, can someone explain to me what is happening to the ppn?, sorry if it seems an odd question, i just cant work out what its doing i thought the feature and ppn accociated was suppose to sink south and go into the continent. Wouldnt normally ask its just annoying me. While im here whats the chances of seeing falling snow? need my snow fix before winters over, can look forward to our so called summers then lol.

[Ginkrots]

2 degrees in Newport, surely wintry PPN can't be that far away now..

[welshwizard]

itv Wales weather said upto 10cm of snow but looks like it is for north east wales, some in south east and rain down south around bridgend area and nothing down west. and rain then for next few days with what looked like sleet for thurs.

[snefnug]

BBC/meto - more backtracks than a smurf album!