wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[marclt]

next week isn't looking that cold is it? Are we slowly starting to see a rise in temps? Totally out of the model loop...

[marclt]

We did fairly well here, about 3-4 inches from the initial fall with a couple of minor top ups which balanced out the slow thaw. Quite rare to have the white stuff covering the garden for a week.

yeah, the top ups helped, and we got a good load the Friday after the first lot arrived. so all in all about 12 inches. I think it beat 2010 here, because the snow was so heavy on the trees and hedges, literally dragging the branches down.

[bradymk]

next week isn't looking that cold is it? Are we slowly starting to see a rise in temps? Totally out of the model loop...

Not v cold, but not mild either. GFS in particular keeps moving away from milder outlook and ensembles for both GFS and ECM starting to keep the cold weather and maybe even increase the cold with the potential for Greenland height rises. Looking at the charts, plenty of winter left.

yeah, the top ups helped, and we got a good load the Friday after the first lot arrived. so all in all about 12 inches. I think it beat 2010 here, because the snow was so heavy on the trees and hedges, literally dragging the branches down.

Variation in the county was huge though. Some places in the south of the county saw no snow at all. In Hwest, we had snow on the first Friday which lasted for the day but after that, it all missed us and thawed quite quickly whereas some places to my north and east still had plenty.

Edited February 9, 2013 by bradythemole

[benb]

Both the 18z GFS and NAE seem to have a more favorable tilt on the low, a little more west/east, pulling the colder air in across central eastern Wales hence better chance for snow in these areas.

[Panayiotis]

Not v cold, but not mild either. GFS in particular keeps moving away from milder outlook and ensembles for both GFS and ECM starting to keep the cold weather and maybe even increase the cold with the potential for Greenland height rises. Looking at the charts, plenty of winter left.

Mid day temp for Wednesday, to me thats cold!

[keithlucky]

next week isn't looking that cold is it? Are we slowly starting to see a rise in temps? Totally out of the model loop...

Expect the unexpected marcit winter is not over by a long way we in a lull atm we in between two types of patterns ,Expect the weather to turn a lot colder from the east around the 18th of Feb.

[bradymk]

Mid day temp for Wednesday, to me thats cold!

Remember midday is not the warmest part of the day and GFS charts reinforce this but yes v cold up to Wednesday but rain moving in Wednesday turning things milder but I feel this will only be for a time as GFS has definately backed from its milder outlook post Wednesday and the EC postage stamps look good!

[J10]

NAE gives the potential for some heavy snow for E and parts of inland SE Wales tomorrow night.

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

As a progression here are the past 3 charts for midnight Sunday to Monday.

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.weatheron...302090000&HH=48

I am sure tonight's version will change this again.

Just seen NMM for tomorrow and completely different, a complete non event for snow over Wales.

Huge differences for events in less than 48 hours.

http://www.weather.c...ows/live-stream The latest from over the pond, the snow time lapse is particularly impressive. .

Latest NAE

http://expert-images...021018_0918.gif

http://expert-images...021100_0918.gif

http://expert-images...021106_0918.gif

http://expert-images...021112_0918.gif

It seems pretty certain now that it will be rain to start off tomorrow across Wales,

and then according to NAE then slowly turning to snow across more Northern and Eastern parts tomorrow night.

NMM analysis to follow.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Jackone

[Panayiotis]

Remember midday is not the warmest part of the day and GFS charts reinforce this but yes v cold up to Wednesday but rain moving in Wednesday turning things milder but I feel this will only be for a time as GFS has definately backed from its milder outlook post Wednesday and the EC postage stamps look good!

Could you give me the EC stamps link?

Thanks

[marclt]

Well it is drizzling and fairly misty here with me right now. Possibly low cloud, we do get that a lot. Current temps... 5.8c Dewpoint 5.3, humidity 97%.

[bradymk]

Could you give me the EC stamps link?

Thanks

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[Panayiotis]

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

Thank you!

[givemeadangler]

Variation in the county was huge though. Some places in the south of the county saw no snow at all. In Hwest, we had snow on the first Friday which lasted for the day but after that, it all missed us and thawed quite quickly whereas some places to my north and east still had plenty.

Hwest was pretty unlucky in the last spell. I was there on the Thurday (I think) where a few flakes were falling, but just before I reached home the snow was coming down incredibly thick and fast a mere 6 miles up the road, but it only lasted 30 mins!

Anyway looking to the future, lots of talk in the just bearable model thread of heights developing over Greenland, fingers crossed this will develop and a potent northerly a result. Best hope for us here in Pembs as we move through feb/march

[J10]

Latest NAE

http://expert-images...021018_0918.gif

http://expert-images...021100_0918.gif

http://expert-images...021106_0918.gif

http://expert-images...021112_0918.gif

It seems pretty certain now that it will be rain to start off tomorrow across Wales,

and then according to NAE then slowly turning to snow across more Northern and Eastern parts tomorrow night.

NMM analysis to follow.

NMM as promised

NMM agrees with the wet start, and then also agrees with rain turning to snow over Northern and eastern parts, however precipitation at that time is quite small.

NMM goes with up to 20mm of rain, so quite a wet day in prospect.

[blackrose73]

NMM as promised

NMM agrees with the wet start, and then also agrees with rain turning to snow over Northern and eastern parts, however precipitation at that time is quite small.

NMM goes with up to 20mm of rain, so quite a wet day in prospect.

Not much to get excited about for us in South Wales then really?

[welshwizard]

just saw how much snow parts of America had last night, fair play they got enough to build a snowman. don't take them long to get traffic moving mind. I am hoping to be honest we don't have anymore snow now as it just goes all messy slush in no time as the sun is much stronger now. and be nice to sit out the back with a cuppa or beer with some nice warm sun. so fingers crossed for a long dry hot sunny summer. starting in march please and finish next October. wonder what my chances are for that to happen? I would say none at all.

[Bonjangle]

Where is Andy the snowmegedion when you need him?

Bit quiet he has been with all his ramping of the Snow we were going to get .

Is he got egg slapped on his face as he mooshed it up or is he waiting untill may for Snow .

[blackrose73]

Where is Andy the snowmegedion when you need him?

Bit quiet he has been with all his ramping of the Snow we were going to get .

Is he got egg slapped on his face as he mooshed it up or is he waiting untill may for Snow .

I was wondering that as well! Not looking that good for snow for South Wales but you never know!

[bradymk]

If you love snow, Hamden, CT topped out at 40 inches of snow today from the NE blizzard, remarkable and unthinkable what that would do here.

[CRACKPOT]

Here we are, right into the reliable - and snow risk completely done for Wales - if an upgrade occurs now it will be minimal.

Just cold heavy rain then we are middle of February..... tick, tock.....

JK

[mikeocarroll]

Well lots of cold rain here this morning too, if it had all been snow today it would be immense... it will happen again one day though. My rain guage appears to have broken though or maybe it has blown upside down as it is reading zero, whereas the puddles would suggest there has been at least 6-8mm already. However temp reading of 4.4c seems about right, dp 2.9c, long way to go to snow.

[TonyH]

It was always supposed to be rain until tonight though, not that I expect it to turn to snow.

[CRACKPOT]

It was always supposed to be rain until tonight though, not that I expect it to turn to snow.

Looking at the latest Beeb forecast Tony shows extremely little snow until after midnight where it might only be the occasional flurry. Not good!

Not that cold tomorrow either - the 'cold' spell this week has been anything but cold.

JK

[keithlucky]

It was always supposed to be rain until tonight though, not that I expect it to turn to snow.

Yes Tony ( I am on mobile) latest NAE the colder air will start to turn the rain to snow after midnight so higher ground should get a covering.

[welshwizard]

im not trying to cause trouble now but who does think winter could be over as far as snow (sticking around snow)? if you remember Foggybrynna did have quite a few people question his post only a few days ago, but there does seem to be quite a few now who think the same. if there is snow going to come today due to heights it norm comes right behind my house on the bwlch so will keep checking later today but to be honest I cant see any snow coming now (I may be wrong) temps are way to high. I think that's it for snow sticking around, we may have one or 2 little dustings like we had few days ago but as for proper snow time is moving away now. looks like we back to the rainy season ha ha. it does not seem to take much rain now for the streams to start back up on the mountain. few years ago there was only 7 runs coming down now when it rains there are 11 and when we have days of rain there are much much more. we do need a long dry spell as the ground is full of water.