winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[bobbydog]

I see funny side!! Just object to the comparative remark of children akin to our forecasters. That's belittling their skills and equally the very stressful responsibility they endure whenever delineating warnings of this type of marginality via PWS conference and having to go public with it.

not to mention the extensive training they have to undertake to reach that position.

[NickR]

Im not referring to the convective snowfall that will occur later. Purely just focusing on the frontal snowfall via the LP.

If members flick between +72 & +96 on the ECM/UKMO they will see why im puzzled. I actually see the complete reverse with snow more likely during Mon than Sunday with this occuring during Sunday night into the early hrs of Monday morning.

I do understand - and I agree... but in terms of "not getting excited", the convection point stands. ;-)

[Summer Sun]

One thing what does seem certain now is this system will stall over parts of the UK

The midlands up-to parts of Northern England looks good for snow

The question marks remain on how far north and south the snow will be from the 2 areas above and what time it will arrive what is certain is someone somewhere will get a dumping of snow

I personally expect things to become a lot clearer after the 12z's tomorrow the next 24 hours will see a lot of nail biting going on for some thats for sure

Edited February 8, 2013 by Gavin.

[TEITS]

I do understand - and I agree... but in terms of "not getting excited", the convection point stands. ;-)

Indeed the GEFS mean suggests quiet a decent convective E,ly.

However if the correction is SW this could impact the N,ly extent of the E,lys though.

Let me put it this way I would be amazed if the models don't show this SW correction over the next 24hrs.

[keithlucky]

One thing what does seem certain now is this system will stall over parts of the UK

The midlands up-to parts of Northern England looks good for snow

The question marks remain on how far north and south the snow will be from the 2 areas above and what time it will arrive what is certain is someone somewhere will get a dumping of snow

That statement on the northern extent of the possible snow event is totally opposite of the met office own fax update no significant precipitation further north than the midlands

[bluearmy]

might be a good time to remind people that the met office have several models which we dont have access to. they place much more store in these at the timescale we are currently in (inc yesterday). if the models we see have proved to be more accurate then thats just the way it is on this occasion. posts saying 'this is obvious' can only be true for the data you are lookihg at.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Indeed the GEFS mean suggests quiet a decent convective E,ly.

http://modeles.meteo...s-21-1-96.png?6

However if the correction is SW this could impact the N,ly extent of the E,lys though.

Let me put it this way I would be amazed if the models don't show this SW correction over the next 24hrs.

teits why do you keep saying that? It may be corrected north.

[Summer Sun]

That statement on the northern extent of the possible snow event is totally opposite of the met office own fax update no significant precipitation further north than the midlands

You might all wish to check out this video from the beeb for Sundays snow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21382443

[MR EXTREMES]

I see funny side!! Just object to the comparative remark of children akin to our forecasters. That's belittling their skills and equally the very stressful responsibility they endure whenever delineating warnings of this type of marginality via PWS conference and having to go public with it.

i agree i think myself id of taken offence its a very difficult job and its bad enough in here let alone in a office trying to make sure peoples lives are not at risk because in servere weather where would we be without the met office.

i sopose if there was no met office we could use geese robins and fern cones lol.

[Suburban Streamer]

teits why do you keep saying that? It may be corrected north.

while each situation is unique, i agree with TEITS that lp's progged to track in a similar way to sundays low usually end up further south and less intense as we get nearer to t0

Edited February 8, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[MR EXTREMES]

teits why do you keep saying that? It may be corrected north.

i agree with tetis very much so i think its very much nowcast i remember a similar situation a couple of weeks ago here in the south watch this space id say.

shorterm and midterm.

i bet a bottom dollar it does end up futher south and i think its location today is wrong and the flip flops show this.

Edited February 8, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[MrSunshine]

i agree with tetis very much so i think its very much nowcast i remember a similar situation a couple of weeks ago here in the south watch this space id say.

shorterm and midterm.

i bet a bottom dollar it does end up futher south and i think its location today is wrong and the flip flops show this.

Met Office now seem very confident of the trajectory of Sunday's low, puts the highest snow risk from the midlands northwards. Apologies if its already been posted but here is a very recent video from the BBC presented by Alex Deakin http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21382443

Edited February 8, 2013 by DaveMac82

[Mac_SE]

i agree with tetis very much so i think its very much nowcast i remember a similar situation a couple of weeks ago here in the south watch this space id say.

shorterm and midterm.

i bet a bottom dollar it does end up futher south and i think its location today is wrong and the flip flops show this.

My new favourite game: 'Guess The Poster's Location'. Have a stab at which part of the country they're in based on the content of their post. Hours of fun, especially when snow shows its hand. Beats scrolling through pages of IMBYisms.

[Hammer]

teits why do you keep saying that? It may be corrected north.

happy days you make it sound like TEITS is basing it on a toss of a coin. Often low pressure from this direction gets corrected SW. That is not to say we can't see a correction northward. It doesn't mean TEITS will be correct. I agree that I think if there is correction, it is more likely SW.

[Manchester_Sunset]

Even he says it's still uncertain. So i'm taking the video with a pinch of salt.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Even he says it's still uncertain. So i'm taking the video with a pinch of salt.

im not,iv'e copied the image and will send it with a strongly worded email to the beeb on monday morning while im busy deciding which wellies and umbrella to take out with me.

[Lampostwatcher]

Met Office now seem very confident of the trajectory of Sunday's low, puts the highest snow risk from the midlands northwards. Apologies if its already been posted but here is a very recent video from the BBC presented by Alex Deakin http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21382443

its not that recent 11.51 !

Interesting that came out after the warnings

And shows snow over the london area

[claret047]

i agree i think myself id of taken offence its a very difficult job and its bad enough in here let alone in a office trying to make sure peoples lives are not at risk because in servere weather where would we be without the met office.

i sopose if there was no met office we could use geese robins and fern cones lol.

And seagulls!

Looking at the earlier charts and what TEITS is stating I also believe that there will be a south and west correction of the feature and all but southern coastal counties as far as Hampshire and then a norhwest progression in a line to say Newport and then westwards will after perhaps initial rain see an extended period of snow with in many places especially over high ground witness considerable accumulations. The precipitation from this will probably make it as far north as Sheffield or thereabouts, but for the more northern areas that will be disappointed by this, especially in counties bordering the North sea they can look forward to a lot of convective snowfall from Monday onwards for a couple of days or so until more settled cponditions arrive.

Kind Regards

Dave

[NickR]

i agree i think myself id of taken offence its a very difficult job and its bad enough in here let alone in a office trying to make sure peoples lives are not at risk because in servere weather where would we be without the met office.

i sopose if there was no met office we could use geese robins and fern cones lol.

Don't worry, I'm sure your sycophancy will not go unnoticed. ;-)

Though you might find fewer people want to go for a pint with you.

[polarlow2]

its not that recent 11.51 !

Interesting that came out after the warnings

And shows snow over the london area

I know this isn't model-related, but I really do like Alex Deakin as a presenter. Good delivery and explains set-ups really well. Almost on a par with John Hammond imo.

[MrSunshine]

And seagulls!

Looking at the earlier charts and what TEITS is stating I also believe that there will be a south and west correction of the feature and all but southern coastal counties as far as Hampshire and then a norhwest progression in a line to say Newport and then westwards will after perhaps initial rain see an extended period of snow with in many places especially over high ground witness considerable accumulations. The precipitation from this will probably make it as far north as Sheffield or thereabouts, but for the more northern areas that will be disappointed by this, especially in counties bordering the North sea they can look forward to a lot of convective snowfall from Monday onwards for a couple of days or so until more settled cponditions arrive.

Kind Regards

Dave

Met Office warnings have the snow reaching the Glasgow/Edinburgh area, that would be some mighty shift to say the northwards extent will only make it to about Sheffield. Surely they can't be that far out?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Yes a good forecast from Alex. Ties in with the latest charts plus they have the luxury of extras which we do not. The Midlands, NE, North Wales and the North West/Northern England look to be bang on the firing line with some significant accluminations especially for the NE

[polarlow2]

Although I have a question: that BBC forecast suggests precipitation (mostly snow) in northern and central areas Sunday, moving north Monday...should it not be shifting south and turning progressively to snow, given that the low pressure system is moving south-westwards with an easterly win setting in. Or am I missing something...?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Although I have a question: that BBC forecast suggests precipitation (mostly snow) in northern and central areas Sunday, moving north Monday...should it not be shifting south and turning progressively to snow, given that the low pressure system is moving south-westwards with an easterly win setting in. Or am I missing something...?

No, the LP system is set to stall over midlands northwards as it meets the block, thus dropping the majority of its PPN over these areas. It will linger around even to Monday before fizzling out and dropping south with the odd flurry, although temperatures south of the midlands are very marginal for snow. More likely rain / sleet.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Phil Avery just on and agreeing with 06zgfs heavy snow across parts of the midland right up to the NW of England and yorkshire,not much down south though and into monday the focus of heavy snow showers again across yorkshire and further north.Temps of 3 across the north and 4 and 5 across the south and south east with little or no precip forecast.

As it stands this is a midlands northwards event,looks like a damp squib south of the midlnds.

Edited February 8, 2013 by happy days