South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/02/13 23z ------->

[Bumpkin]

Talking on mod thread about 1987 winter, Think we had very cold spell in this area, Must be year the engine of my car froze up and eventually finished up with cracked block,

Was helping out at the old Dorchester football club pitch,,, Remember shovelling snow off pitch,so they could play game, but called off anyway due to everything freezing up solid, Frozen water pipes.no toilets, That was cold spell,but not remember how long lasted [Think have right year]

I remember 87. Myself and my friends went to a hill on the edge of our village and threw ourselves down on tea trays and fertilizer sacks. It was a really steep and vicious hill. One of my friends ended up being taken to hospital with a broken collarbone. We spent the whole day on that hill and went home just before it got dark, wet, frozen, tired and hungry with bent and buckled tea trays much to our Mum's disgust.

As for today, after a murky misty start it cleared to being partly cloudy with sunny spells. So nice to see the sun. Temperature currently 3.2c.

[AWD]

Some very dense fog likely at dawn tomorrow in inland parts of the South and west;

Visibility below 50m locally.

[cerneman]

Mixed bag today,,,,,,,,,,,,,Sunny spells early, then cloudy but bright afternoon, Temps now 6.2c

[Bumpkin]

Some very dense fog likely at dawn tomorrow in inland parts of the South and west;

Visibility below 50m locally.

Oh pooh. My son is doing his first night shift tonight, i'm taking him to work shortly and have to pick him up at 7am. I hate driving in fog. Just had a quick peek in the model forum (I have been generally avoiding it because it makes my head hurt) and it made me chuckle to read of snow forecast south of the M4 corridor, that surely can't have happened very often! Don't worry its in F1.

[Nights King]

Some very dense fog likely at dawn tomorrow in inland parts of the South and west;

Visibility below 50m locally.

Already very thick fog outside! Was a pain trying to drive home a few mins ago!

[Bumpkin]

Already very thick fog outside! Was a pain trying to drive home a few mins ago!

Just got in from taking my son to work and the 5 mile drive there wasn't too bad but driving back the fog just suddenly dropped down. Not looking forward to about 6.45am when i have to go out again. 1.8c and feeling nippy.

[divadee]

Good morning all.

No fog here this morning but the cloud is already breaking up with blue sky poking through. It's also nice to see the lighter mornings (and evenings).

[Mark Parsons]

It's all shaping up nicely next week it seems for a last breath of winter, I am off on holiday Friday to Iceland of all places, so disruption is inevitable as it was in Jan when I went to Paris, sods law that this could deliver some goods when I am away as well and I wont be here to see it :-( !!!

[Mark Parsons]

God it's quiet on here, must be the pre-GFS blues!!!!!!!! Or is it because everyone is glued to the mod thread now they are all playing nicely lol!!

Edited February 16, 2013 by Mark Parsons

[galacticwarrior]

Nooooooo.... I go on holiday when the easterly comes... Oh well Dubai is good enough

[Dorsetbred]

God it's quiet on here, must be the pre-GFS blues!!!!!!!! Or is it because everyone is glued to the mod thread now they are all playing nicely lol!!

Temporary sanity returns!

[Coast]

It's all shaping up nicely next week it seems for a last breath of winter

Current runs have it a bit to the East of the region, but we all know that will change. This could go on for 24 hours if it plays out as modelled at the moment.

[Mark Parsons]

Current runs have it a bit to the East of the region, but we all know that will change. This could go on for 24 hours if it plays out as modelled at the moment.

Current runs have it a bit to the East of the region, but we all know that will change. This could go on for 24 hours if it plays out as modelled at the moment.

It could all go wrong(if not already watered down by t24) however the law of averages would suggest maybe that we have to get a direct hit sometime! Edited February 16, 2013 by Mark Parsons

[SNOWYLAD]

That chart is for the 24th.....9 days away!

[Bumpkin]

Morning! Went out just before 7am and had a thin layer of ice on the windscreen, it was foggy but not too thick. The sun is currently trying to peek out from behind the clouds and the temperature is up to 3.4c now.

[cerneman]

Very misty morning,but sun breaking through,

Remember the days when in Birmingham would have the thick pea soup fogs,

Drove work one evening closely following tail lights of car in front, I finished up in Cul de sac outside this guys house,,,,,,,,,,,Road I knew so well just became very disorientating, Down here in Dorset was the sound of Portland Bill fog horn echoing across Weymouth Bay, So eerie, Stood in front of it once when it went off, Very body numbing experience

[AWD]

A few more days of similiar weather to what we currently have, then come later in the week, winter looks like returning;

Some nice, cold upper air there.

You can see below, the mean upper air temperature values are in the "good for snow zone" from around the 21st to the 27th. The mean line being the red line, some members take it colder and some milder as you can see.

From an easterly feed, with drier continental air, the upper air temperature isn't so important for potential snowfall, as the Dewpoints will be more favourable as seen below as an example;

As early as Tuesday the air will start to feel cold;

Wednesday, the Dewpoints well into negative values for most;

WBFL down to sea level for most;

And thickness' sub 528DAM for most;

This is enough to provide snowfall if there were PPN around on Wednesday, but this looks too early for us yet, still dry at this point.

Similiar pattern into Thursday;

And into the weekend;

Showing bitterly cold continental air over all our region, despite what some might see as mediocre upper air temp profile. Don't get too hung up on the upper air temps, as the above is just as important, perhaps a little more so, when looking for snow potential in a continental feed.

Below are the PPN ensembles for Somerset, notice spikes starting to appear from the 23rd onwards, representing potential for PPN in our region from the 23rd;

So I wouldn't say yes or no about any snow potential yet, mesoscale features will also be likely if the easterly flow proves to be on the stronger side, features that NWP output wouldn't have picked up on yet. There is increasing confidence on a colder period of weather later next week now, that's all we need for now.

Look for snow when the colder air is here. There are "snowy" solutions out there, even for us! :p

[TwisterGirl81]

I hope we finally see some proper snow next week or will Exeter, South Devon and Cornwalls lower elevation snow dome hold fast like it has done allllllll winter! grrr

Fingers and toes crossed

[Costa Del Fal]

STUNNING MORNING IN FALMOUTH TODAY! 100% Clear blue skies and its 10c. A proper first taste of Spring!!!

[Nights King]

So another dry non snowy cold spell for us in west country ahead.... Pleasant I'm not going to lie but I will be disapointed if west cannot get anything from what will be last shot of winter proper.

Anoying thing will be with this easterly is that we could end up losing our sunshine and just get cloudy dull days while east gets peppered with showers towards end of week.

Place your bets now for round (forgot how many now this winter) for a slider low or channel low atacking us and leaving us in a mild sector while further north and east get it all...

[ARTDEMOLE]

MIsty but the sun is trying to break through....Before the cold weather come again....

Current data for WH1081

16 February 2013 12:27:36

Temperature (°C):

Current 5.7

Trend (per hour) -0.1

Average today 5.5

Wind chill 5.7

Heat Index 5.7

Dew Point 5.6

Rel Humidity 99%

Wind (km/h):

Current Gust 5.0 NW

Average Speed 1.1 ENE

Rainfall (mm):

Current rate 0.0

Last hour 0.0

Total today 0.0

Total yesterday 0.0

Total this month 6.0

Total this year 6.0

Pressure (hPa):

Current 1019.4

Trend (per hour) +5.7

[AWD]

So another dry non snowy cold spell for us in west country ahead....

What crystal ball are you using?

It's 6 days away yet before any potential snowfall could affect parts of our region.

Too early to look for snow yet. Still uncertain on the degree of cold pool that's going to hit us.

As the old adage goes, "Get the cold here first then look for snow".

[Argyle1980]

Still a long way to go yet but I have to say I think Devon and Cornwall are going to do well out of this by the time we get to next weekend...... That famous saying that Cornwall always gets snow when we are not forecasted it! .

[J10]

What crystal ball are you using?

It's 6 days away yet before any potential snowfall could affect parts of our region.

Too early to look for snow yet. Still uncertain on the degree of cold pool that's going to hit us.

As the old adage goes, "Get the cold here first then look for snow".

I think the problem so far this winter has been the South West, and indeed Wales for the matter has always been on the edge of the cold, so this has made any snowfall marginal, as is often the case. Hopefully this time, the cold will get much further west making any snowfall less marginal for most. Certainly latest models see the cold going way past Ireland, and covering the whole of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1682.png sees the cold going all the way to the west of the UK

[Nights King]

What crystal ball are you using?

It's 6 days away yet before any potential snowfall could affect parts of our region.

Too early to look for snow yet. Still uncertain on the degree of cold pool that's going to hit us.

As the old adage goes, "Get the cold here first then look for snow".

I'm not using a crystal ball just the ghost of winter past and it is a haunting me this year

That and the famous law of Sod

I really do hope we see something abit more promising this time round so it doesn't end up the winter of near misses.