winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[Coast]

and suddenly with a flick of the fingers, we were all back in the Model Output Discussion thread......

[Interitus]

Here is the most recent temperature anomaly chart for March from the CFS, nothing out of the ordinary there for the UK

And this previous one shows slightly above average temperatures in some areas

[bradymk]

Each actual CFS run will be. You need to look at the anomalies

http://www.meteociel...0&mode=4&run=10

At 700 hours out you don't want to be viewing every single run like you do the GFS. GFS FI is bad enough. The anomalies smooth all of this out.

These have been consistent i will admit but the CFS weekly anomalies here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/ still not really interested for the first half of March at least.

[Snowman.]

I dont really follow these CFS maps but if you have, can you say they have performed well this winter?

It actually called out the current cold spell coming up as are dutch friend called too.

Edited February 18, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Mark Neal.]

Might not be raging SWestrlies or strong Easterly flows with HLB to full force, but staying dry is a real good thing for areas seeing alot of flooding recently, last few days have found very pleasant in the sun, its that time of the year where it starts to feel more powerful and the days get longer. Don't get be wrong i would love a Snowy spell, but its going to be cold as all NWP models suggest the next few days, for those who get snow flurries then good on you, but staying dry with some sunshine further west, the best of both worlds.. Greenland High is going to show its face as we start Spring isn't it..

CFS has been consistent on a cold march for quite a while, wonder if it will come to fruition

[Tom Jarvis]

They actually called out the current cold spell coming up as are dutch friend called too.

Where has our Dutch friend gone I was enjoying his posts??

Edited February 18, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[SLEETY]

I think 'v slight risk' is underplaying it: I'm sure a few districts will see light snow showers periodically. As Exeter stress, there's inevitable uncertainty on this element of the forecast at current juncture - let's await the higher-resolution closer to the time. However, embedded UK4-km modelling extended into Fri-Sat showers very limited accumulations, it has to be said. But that's a consistent part of the story thus-far anyway.

Only a tiny movement North of the high pressure cell,from what is currently being modelled would bring a threat of more heavier snow showers to some areas.Some of the gfs permutations have been hinting at this,as well as some of the lesser models today .It would seem the met are ignoring this,also the low pressure over France which has been shown on the models to be moving towards the uk at the weekend,with the threat of more prolonged snow,is also not being taken into consideration either.Time will tell if the Met's credibility stays intact

[lord stratus]

Only a tiny movement North of the high pressure cell,from what is currently being modelled would bring a threat of more heavier snow showers to some areas.Some of the gfs permutations have been hinting at this,as well as some of the lesser models today .It would seem the met are ignoring this,also the low pressure over France which has been shown on the models to be moving towards the uk at the weekend,with the threat of more prolonged snow,is also not being taken into consideration either.Time will tell if the Met's credibility stays intact

I disagree with your post. The met office are playing it safe as we are still talking 4 days out.

Even if there is heavy snow on the weekend it will not have any bearing on their credibility. If you listen to their latest forecasts and Ian F's posts they clearly state that there is no significant snow showing up at the moment. This can change and if it does I am sure it will start showing up in their forecasts.

[Nick B]

Only a tiny movement North of the high pressure cell,from what is currently being modelled would bring a threat of more heavier snow showers to some areas.Some of the gfs permutations have been hinting at this,as well as some of the lesser models today .It would seem the met are ignoring this,also the low pressure over France which has been shown on the models to be moving towards the uk at the weekend,with the threat of more prolonged snow,is also not being taken into consideration either.Time will tell if the Met's credibility stays intact

I think their credibility would be in much worse trouble if they engaged in this type of speculation with the public. There is good reason to hold back on what may be one out of a large number of potential outcomes when it affects so many people in different ways. A lot more certainty is required for public broadcast of severe conditions. As to their credibility, so far when all is said and done I think they have done rather well this winter. For the upcoming spell of colder weather, given how slight changes of placement of the high to the north of the UK could have implication between cold and largely dry (currently modelled as by far the more likely scenario) and at the other extreme, persistent snow showers of varying intensity yet to be established (the outside bet), why would you expect a professional forecasting organisation to mention any more this far out? Ian F has not entirely ruled out far snowier and more severe weather (because it can and does change this far out) but he has laid out quite neatly why at the moment they think the risk is low. So, the high being further north is surely one of the key features some on here will be seeking, allowing the deeper cold air aloft to waft over our shores in a brisk easterly. Will we start to see this reflected in the models though?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I think that it is fair that if the METO is due criticism then no one should be chastised or have there posts removed for doing so (which i feel happens from time to time on here), like wise it is fair to praise them when praise is due. A very well respected and knowledgeable weather man chooses to post on here so criticism, praise, intelligent and idiotic questions are going to be thrown at him from time to time, but that is par of the course if you enter the public domain such as this. They shouldn't be wrapped in cotton wool and kept back from us "peasants" so to speak.

It's not a night club where you have a roped off VIP section, because at the end they really are just " weather men and women" and not Mahatma Gandhi

Edited February 18, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[cobbett]

I disagree with your post. The met office are playing it safe as we are still talking 4 days out.

Even if there is heavy snow on the weekend it will not have any bearing on their credibility. If you listen to their latest forecasts and Ian F's posts they clearly state that there is no significant snow showing up at the moment. This can change and if it does I am sure it will start showing up in their forecasts.

Slightly unfair on Sleety - he's basing his assumptions on current output on which the Met Office have obviously discounted by the following comment

"Confidence remains high for conditions continuing cold, mostly dry and generally rather cloudy"

If the Met Office do now change then that is an error on their prognosis for the coming week

[Paul]

I think that it is fair that if the METO is due criticism then no one should be chastised or have there posts removed for doing so (which i feel happens from time to time on here), like wise it is fair to praise them when praise is due. A very well respected and knowledgeable weather man chooses to post on here so criticism, praise, intelligent and idiotic questions are going to be thrown at him from time to time, but that is par of the course if you enter the public domain such as this. They shouldn't be wrapped in cotton wool and kept back from us "peasants" so to speak.

It's not a night club where you have a roped off VIP section, because at the end of the day he is really just a " weather man" and not Mahatma Gandhi

You miss the point though, this is the model thread - so a post containing nothing but criticism (or indeed praise) of the Met Office is not relevant to the topic and better suited to being made in the many Met office related topics elsewhere - that's why they're removed..

So please can we get back to discussing the model output, and move the other conversations to their relevant parts of the forum

[fergieweather]

I disagree with your post. The met office are playing it safe as we are still talking 4 days out.

Even if there is heavy snow on the weekend it will not have any bearing on their credibility. If you listen to their latest forecasts and Ian F's posts they clearly state that there is no significant snow showing up at the moment. This can change and if it does I am sure it will start showing up in their forecasts.

Yes - I suspect some folk confuse the point here (or are just mischief-making): given the UKMO forecasts for anything from the next few hours to 2 weeks away are being updated some 2-4 times a day, clearly by definition whatever was written or considered as a probable solution 48hrs ago (or whatever) is irrelevant when superceded by a new version. It's really quite a simple concept....called 'forecasting'.

I fail to understand this tiresome obsession with trying to cherry-pick some expired UKMO forecast and then berate it or denounce 'credibility' if it's not matching their revised thoughts when a new version is written some days later. Every forecast organisation globally would surely be in for the same criticism!!! Bonkers stuff....

[johnholmes]

Slightly unfair on Sleety - he's basing his assumptions on current output on which the Met Office have obviously discounted by the following comment

"Confidence remains high for conditions continuing cold, mostly dry and generally rather cloudy"

If the Met Office do now change then that is an error on their prognosis for the coming week

IF and IF the other models they discount as you post IF they in turn are shown to have been correct. A fair number of ifs in my book.

[fergieweather]

at the end they really are just " weather men and women" and not Mahatma Gandhi

He also had a far more generous clothing allowance than us lot.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the most recent temperature anomaly chart for March from the CFS, nothing out of the ordinary there for the UK

And this previous one shows slightly above average temperatures in some areas

I've been playing close attention to the CFSv2 seasonal z700 anomalies lately they've been flipping constantly from average temperatures for spring to above average

March has often been shown to be above normal temperature wise as well

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

He also had a far more generous clothing allowance than us lot.

I've got a image in my head now of you wearing a bright pink Sari and I must admit I quite like it (Joke )

Edited February 18, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[johnholmes]

Will there be major travel disruption Ian? We have some relatives coming up from london on friday, and my viewing of the latest models shows the peak period for wintry ppn being friday/saturday unless timings change. I think the windchill factor in the south is really worth highlighting as it will make temps of +1 or +2 celsius feel closer to minus 8 to minus 10c, very dangerous for some.

In all seriousness, although I am not sure it was a serious question, the risk of serious travel disruption even in our country unable to deal with 2cm of snow, I would say, LOOKING AT THE OVERALL MODEL concencus this is not above 5%

[fergieweather]

I've been playing close attention to the CFSv2 seasonal z700 anomalies lately they've been flipping constantly from average temperatures for spring to above average

March has often been shown to be above normal temperature wise as well

Interesting - thanks for sharing these.

[fergieweather]

Interesting - thanks for sharing these.

Incidentally (as you might have noticed) the UKMO seasonal forecast goes a bit more towards average or cooler-than, but it's such experimental stuff I give it little operational credence!

[SMU]

UKMO 48 has just landed & its a good clip North. V the T60.

All good stuff.

Expecting some sub 532 heights on the UKMO 96/120 tonight. ramp up those cloud tops!

S

[johnholmes]

Whilst so many wait with bated breath for the next GFS offering.

Here is the latest upper air profile (skew-t diagram) for about as far east in England as one could get - Lowestoft at T+144. It is the ONLY T+x-z that shows any convection above about 5000ft, no matter how cold the upper air is or how supportive every other of the 7 or 8 variables needed to give snow.

If it turns out to be correct then centred around that time then snow showers could give a covering, 2cm perhaps, if you stretch it then 4cm. Try it, go to Extra, and skew-t and type in your locality and see how unstable it is?

Not understand then have a look at the Net Wx Guide about this topic.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Yes - I suspect some folk confuse the point here (or are just mischief-making): given the UKMO forecasts for anything from the next few hours to 2 weeks away are being updated some 2-4 times a day, clearly by definition whatever was written or considered as a probable solution 48hrs ago (or whatever) is irrelevant when superceded by a new version. It's really quite a simple concept....called 'forecasting'.

Typically I find the short range forecasts are great, of course there are revisions but generally small ones. My approach is to use the Meto office for info over the next five days, but look at the models and members input for the 5-10 day period where the Met office is more vague and we are looking more for possibilities.

I do however wonder at what the purpose and value is for the longer Met Office text forecasts? The first part covering 6-10 days is obviously fairly reasonable outline of what is likely to come but as it goes further out past 15 days it seems that it rarely conveys much information.

Typically METO updates says "slightly above normal" or "slightly below normal", near normal etc, and it seems that this rarely going to verify as it is more likely to be either say mild SW influence or cold Easterly influence not some slightly below or above outcome, except briefly in transition. To me it would seem informative to be giving a probabilistic estimate for some of these scenarios? Is there a reason for not doing such - public perception etc? Giving two alternative outcomes may sound like hedging your bets, but its actually more verifiable than the inconclusive statements where two very different signals combine to give something that is a very washed out signal.

[johnholmes]

and this is winter model discussion-why not put it in the correct area=media or Met O forecasts?

[Matty M]

GFS just coming out and has cold pool, lower heights good clip further SOUTH than the 6z.

Not the move we wanted

Infact the cold pool is about 100 miles further east across the UK on this run to 84hrs.