Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[snowice]

Well at least the Holland ensemble gets above the zero line for its final quarter

Your getting closer to Africa Gavin!

[karlos1983]

All conjucture at this stage, but as GFS 18z shows, that system hits cold air and turns to snow, on this run shows m4 corridor again as the snow-line ( this is 5 days away) so likely to change alot by then..

I'm going to personally dig the M4 up and relocate this piece of snow destroying Tarmac.

I've a feeling this will track further south to be honest.

[Muffelchen]

Its zonal Captain, but not as we know it.................

(Forgive me Mods, but I couldn't resist it )

[Panayiotis]

These are the ensembles for my area, v.cold for next week then uncertainty comes in which comes down probably to the route taken by the low, however more ensembles continuing the cold as the mean after hovers around -3C:

http://modeles.meteo...un=18&runpara=0

Edited March 23, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mucka]

These are the ensembles for my area, v.cold for next week then uncertainty comes in which comes down probably to the route taken by the low, however more ensembles continuing the cold as the mean after hovers around -3C:

http://modeles.meteo...un=18&runpara=0

Don't tell Gavin but they look to be trending colder in FI

Actually I think Gavin speaks for the way a lot of us are feeling now, it's been a long Winter and some warmth would be very welcome.

Edited March 23, 2013 by Mucka

[Panayiotis]

Don't tell Gavin but they look to be trending colder.

Actually I think Gavin speaks for the way a lot of us are feeling now, it's been a long Winter and some warmth would be very welcome.

Yes it has been a long winter, if there are signals for cold and especially snow to continue from a IMBY perspective I will look for it, however when Gavin and the models point towards something milder, I will be happy to go on the search for HP and warmth! Edited March 23, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

By 'eck, these ensembles have trended colder since yesterday.....

Manchester area...

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=231&y=47

[SE Blizzards]

By 'eck, these ensembles have trended colder since yesterday.....

Manchester area...

http://www.meteociel...xt=1&x=231&y=47

Yes, i think just about everything today has trended colder.

I must say as a cold lover it is rather special to see some of the charts on offer this late into March. I suppose in a way i can understand to some extent that some people are rather fed up with all this cold now and are dying for some warmth, but i remember plenty of winters in the past when mild early spring temperatures have eaten away at the last few weeks of winter in February, so maybe we were due a cold March. The boot is well and truly on the other foot this year. Of course we all know that spring will eventually have the final say and land the knock out blow, but for the time being winter is putting up one hell of a fight and refuses to let go.

The longer this goes on for the less time we have to wait till winter 2013/14

Edited March 24, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Costa Del Fal]

It looks like a bitter week for pretty much everyone now. Certainly eyeing up snow potential again next Friday ish and possibly in rather similar areas to present maybe a little further south. It seems like heights will start decreasing significantly from Tuesday so snow showers possible for a time and then by the Easter break, currently there is a good chance for more disruption. Like December 2010, milder air keeps getting pushed back. As much as I want Spring, im very interested in how long this can last. Would be quite something to experience one of the coldest March's on Record. Unbelievable contrast to last year but then again this time of year is the best time for contrasts.

[Guest pjl20101]

I think we need to be looking out for a rebuilding of pressure to our north probably quite weak but it's present on both the ECM and GFS at day 8 or so. This aids to keep up the cold winds from the East

Even from this far out I'm calling Scandi high developing over the Easter period. Probably will be wrong now

Why hello there

Coming up in GFS FI and ECM later on.

I spotted a high pressure towards scandanavia my friend, mind you it doesn't look like it has much warmth to it.

[Dave Kightley]

Gfs is really shocking this morning... Also UKMO is really over doing this weather system surely???

[Dave Kightley]

Poor output this morning it has to be said.. Oh well

Edited March 24, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Dave Kightley]

Both GFS and UKmo are keen on pushing our Low further North this morning... GEM is good however

[CongletonHeat]

Personally I like the look of the way GFS is going towards milder but really need it to stay dry on Saturday, however still expect that the cold ECM is more likely as GFS has been absolutely useless lately.

[The Eagle]

GFS/UKMO bring the cold spell to a shuddering halt next Thursday with milder winds becoming established from the southwest.

[Nigel Langton]

Dave what do you mean by poor or shocking output. Does this mean cold, mild, wet dry snow. What is poor and shocking to one weather enthusiast might be great to another.

[That ECM]

Dave what do you mean by poor or shocking output. Does this mean cold, mild, wet dry snow. What is poor and shocking to one weather enthusiast might be great to another.

He basically means that on the UKMO and GFS the low doesn't undercut and therefor the cold uppers are eroded from the south. Couple of points though, it is only one run and as this is t132 away or so much can change. Finally, many will welcome less cold but prob not the associated rain that would come to many parts should the run play out as such. Hope that helps.

[Gustywind]

UKMO pushes a strong low through on Friday bringing a rain only or snow to rain event for england, but more snow for Scotland, which remains on the north side of the low. GFS has good ensemble support for a breakdown at the same time for england, more 50:50 for Scotland.

Key doubts though on whether this gets pushed south again closer to the event.

[CongletonHeat]

ECM showing milder now as well, though all models showed this about a week ago and flipped back, I will wait until Tuesday before am confident of mild.

[Guest pjl20101]

Think its a good thing that the conditions are gonna be less cold for Easter. Trouble is are ecm gonna support it?

[Nigel Langton]

Thankyou ecm. Yes i agree, it's a long way off. As a casual observer who spends most of his time reading the forum rather than writing it does seem that in these block high pressure situations the models constantly chop and change even upto 24hrs. Still the unpredictability and changing makes it fun.

[CongletonHeat]

LP stuck over us, really need that Scandi high to do one.

[IDO]

The ECM op still coming out with cold runs (12z last night) but the ensembles are split:

It appears over 50% support a breakdown by the Atlantic. The ensemble rain totals highlight this:

The average is much higher than the op. GFS have been showing this for a while and it is no surprise the op this morning favours the mean:

There is still about 20% holding onto an under cut so along with the ECM colder ensembles it is still no done deal for a less cold setup.

The GFS 0z op has the Atlantic edge through (Friday) with plenty of rain but it is no Atlantic (zonal) onslaught, and it remains blocked. As the 850s suggest, still cool for most (far SW excluding). Well into FI (D12) a mid-Atlantic ridge forms from the AH, and edges towards the UK, but again temps remain below average, though less wet. So in the reliable about a week of unsettled weather if the cold breaks at the end of the week.

Edited March 24, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

Whilst we have strong hints from the ops of a route out of the unseasonal cold to something less cold but probably very wet (I fear any trough getting over us will be the boundary between spring and winter with associated copious amounts precip), we must be careful not to take too much note of one set of ops. The raw ens have never wanted to extend this cold spell and they have been wrong.

Before we call an end to proper winter (and across scotland that maybe a fair way away yet), I think we should wait for the 12z's

[Weather-history]

Whilst we have strong hints from the ops of a route out of the unseasonal cold to something less cold but probably very wet (I fear any trough getting over us will be the boundary between spring and winter with associated copious amounts precip), we must be careful not to take too much note of one set of ops.

The question is if it does get milder next weekend and with rain a possibility, what is the risk of flooding? There is a hell of a lot of snow on hills and mountains and it doesn't look like it is going anywhere this week.