The Midlands Regional Discussion 22/03/13 12z ------->

[jukebox]

It no that the weather is not going as they want, it s more that the professionals are risk forecasting

Mate the forecasters that people love to berate are just using data from billions of pounds worth of supercomputers. Who is REALLY at fault when a forecast goes wrong ?

Ive used weather forums for a long time and although I aint always participated in threads I have witnessed the likes of Ian Brown and Steve Murr have their pants pulled down and be wrong on a good few occasions. They will admit that and it is no different to the pros...these super computera full of algorithms and processing power are quite often wrong.

To put it into perspective grab a globe and have a look at how tiny this country is in the grand scheme of things ?

We have the met office that cater for our island and due to its positioning,size and location..surrounded by sea you can understand why they get it wrong at times......Its not the end of the world though and life goes on and there are more important things than the weather and if it snows...

Ps theres a good few inches of level snow where I live just outside Cannock now...feel free to come and take some home as I cant wait for the Summer now :-P

[snow freak]

sorry but those of you saying this was going to be a marginal event are wrong. This was not mentioned as a marginal. In fact forecasters were saying the opposite.

[#windysnow#]

The fronts did merge - what we had left overnight merged with what came in from the SW this afternoon, we were always going to end up with a large band of weather.

Ultimately, the heaviest stuff was in the Irish Sea, occasionally affecting Merseyside as well as of course greater PPN intensity over the genuine High Ground in the Peaks.

The METO could not have determined where the greatest intensity would be, only made a best estimate of which areas would be exposed to the PPN for longest for the purpose of their warnings. We also have to remember that regardless of the time of year, the fronts are Atlantic based and even in mid-winter there would have been a lifting of uppers after the first front cleared through.

Apologies and I do respect your comments Ian however I was told earlier that the heavy stuff in the Irish Sea would ink back south and merge with the stuff in the sw I don't think this has happened from looking at the radar everything is just continuing to move north and not south east as forecast. Also uppers would drop as everything moved south east.

The METO are professionals, I would rather hear a forecast that said we don't really know due to the complexities of the weather u mite get 20 cm's or u mite get 0 cm's. the only peppe that really bother with the warnings are us on here, no one else cares.

[Wadey]

What goes north will come back south so that ppn in the Irish Sea might pivot round on the way back down and that could be why the heavy snow was signalled by the met just the timing of it ?

[#windysnow#]

Mate the forecasters that people love to berate are just using data from billions of pounds worth of supercomputers. Who is REALLY at fault when a forecast goes wrong ?

Ive used weather forums for a long time and although I aint always participated in threads I have witnessed the likes of Ian Brown and Steve Murr have their pants pulled down and be wrong on a good few occasions. They will admit that and it is no different to the pros...these super computera full of algorithms and processing power are quite often wrong.

To put it into perspective grab a globe and have a look at how tiny this country is in the grand scheme of things ?

We have the met office that cater for our island and due to its positioning,size and location..surrounded by sea you can understand why they get it wrong at times......Its not the end of the world though and life goes on and there are more important things than the weather and if it snows...

Ps theres a good few inches of level snow where I live just outside Cannock now...feel free to come and take some home as I cant wait for the Summer now :-P

Great post mate puts it into context see my last post

[The Wolf]

I think I must be quite similar to Gord here, just outside Wolverhampton, in that I am doing quite well out of this

event again. Feel sorry for those who are not doing aswell. Hopefully it will get better tonight for you.

It just shows how marginal this is though. Just down the road from me in parts of Wombourne and Stourbridge there is hardly any snow. You go a bit further up the A449 towards Wolverhampton and suddenly the snow is far thicker.

[#windysnow#]

sorry but those of you saying this was going to be a marginal event are wrong. This was not mentioned as a marginal. In fact forecasters were saying the opposite.

Totally agree

[RobR]

Light oaks 800 ft asl, on outskirts of stoke,

Around 4 inch on top of this mornings

Some decent drifts as it blows in off

Fields, lane outside house is closed

With 3 ft blown across it !

Anyone help with uploading pics taken

On iPhone, can't seem to attach file.

Dave

I'm on Norton Heights...not that far as the crow flies...the altitude must be really helping you. We have some mini drifts...must be about 6 inches level on grass and drifts are way higher against the fences. The problem now is the snizzle falling. Its still so gusty as well. One of the showroom flag poles has lost its flag which is unusual.

[Ian Brown]

Apologies and I do respect your comments Ian however I was told earlier that the heavy stuff in the Irish Sea would ink back south and merge with the stuff in the sw I don't think this has happened from looking at the radar everything is just continuing to move north and not south east as forecast. Also uppers would drop as everything moved south east.

The METO are professionals, I would rather hear a forecast that said we don't really know due to the complexities of the weather u mite get 20 cm's or u mite get 0 cm's. the only peppe that really bother with the warnings are us on here, no one else cares.

I dont' think that what was in the Irish Sea was ever going to move SE, when the winds have been turning easterly throughout the day. What could have happened is the when the second band came in, it could have intensified along the NW-SE axis over the NW and the Midlands, in relation to the warning zone.

That has not happened and we have this bulk of ongoing PPN which of course has some legs yet, but I can't see why there should be an intensification. Your location and the SW Midlands, were always on the peripheries of where the core of the band was likely to be.

[Gord]

I think I must be quite similar to Gord here, just outside Wolverhampton, in that I am doing quite well out of this

event again. Feel sorry for those who are not doing aswell. Hopefully it will get better tonight for you.

It just shows how marginal this is though. Just down the road from me in parts of Wombourne and Stourbridge there is hardly any snow. You go a bit further up the A449 towards Wolverhampton and suddenly the snow is far thicker.

Indeed, I moved from Wordsley to here last November and I've definitely seen the difference! It's all about elevation around here. This was the kind of night that I enjoyed driving up Brettel Lane in Stourbridge and seeing the conditions change from one end of the road to the other!

Edited March 22, 2013 by Gord

[Bishop Brennan]

Rather than splitting the Midlands thread into West and East, in future can we have it split so that all the usual negative posters have their own place to moan & whinge, & leave the rest of to enjoy the weather in peace, whatever in brings?

Bish

[TonyH]

May be more conducive to snow. What Ian is saying is in effect the snow is dying out.

Disagree, light to moderate snow continues from now to this time tomorrow.

[cyclonic happiness]

Nice bit of back building going on over the Cotswolds atm.

This is throwing some heavier stuff towards the mid Midlands.

Keep the faith guys and gals, there's usually something totally unexpected that could happen .

[Herefordweather]

It always looked marginal to me for the whole midlands. Especially on the GFS. Here, we have moderate snow and it is settled on as, grass and roofs and with a temperature of 0.5c, it shouldn't be long until it settles on every surface, despite over 25mm of rain today. It's March 22nd, if you genuinely thought this wouldn't be marginal, then think again!

[snow freak]

there is no need to split the 'haves and have nots' surely. we have a right to moan if we're not getting the snow surely. its great to hear those that are getting lots of the stuff but please feel sorry for those that aren't so lucky

[TonyH]

Roll on spring now

It is Spring now!

[#windysnow#]

I dont' think that what was in the Irish Sea was ever going to move SE, when the winds have been turning easterly throughout the day. What could have happened is the when the second band came in, it could have intensified along the NW-SE axis over the NW and the Midlands, in relation to the warning zone.

That has not happened and we have this bulk of ongoing PPN which of course has some legs yet, but I can't see why there should be an intensification. Your location and the SW Midlands, were always on the peripheries of where the core of the band was likely to be.

I am in the amber zone

[nitro_deluxe]

Can see the whole area of precipitation now gradually winding down and albeit very slowly narrowing,at the same time intensifying in places too with quite a few pockets of very heavy falls here and there throughout the night and beyond.Many more hours of snow yet to come folks,a surprise maybe even rude awakening for quite a few come morning despite the fairly sceptical mood in here.Which to be honest is totally understandable after all the closer shaves we've had in more central parts over the past few months.

Should probably be more than enough for a snowman or two and what better day to build one than say a Saturday? or directly after a morning fry up

Night folks.

Edited March 22, 2013 by triple_x1

[mozza81]

Gord, where you live now is one of the best areas for snow in the West Midlands! Welcome.

My mate lives in Stourbridge n said no snow this morning n we had 6-7cms.

Marginal events always happen here.

Where in upper gornal do you live?

If you see a porsche 911 turbo with m3 uos plate that's me:)

[Ian Brown]

I am in the amber zone

I don't think you should have been.

[stewfox]

Heavy sleet here just too far south tonight

[Barbmac]

Steady snow falling here in West Malvern, temperature's sitting at exactly 0.0^oC, dewpoint's -0.7^oC. Just been out to measure what's on the garage roof and it's gone up to 11 cm depth.

[#windysnow#]

I don't think you should have been.

I agree. That's what I am saying about the METO they build in a degree of risk factor

[Derbyshire Snow]

It looks like that's it for any really heavier snow in this area tonight. Favoured regions for the next few hours look to be on a line from Cardiff to Northampton. The precipitation in that area is intensifying just needs to be a little colder. Theres still not much to indicate any widespread and heavier snow from the north or north west coming our way

Signing off now on what been a very good day for this locality

Temp 0c and light snow which should go for a fair while yet

[SalopWatcher]

Well been really heavy last hour probs 2-3 inches outside on our patio... Great stuff...