Are we about to enter another mini ice age ?

[Guest pjl20101]

Personally I think all of this is journalistic spin, like we said before don't believe everything you read in the papers. However saying that solar activity is low and will probably be low for a number of decades, thus having an impact on temperature values.

[BornFromTheVoid]

MINI ICE AGE TO HIT NEXT YEAR

AS Britain shivers through the coldest Easter ever, experts say we could be heading for a new Ice Age. Their frosty prediction comes as the Met Office has warned that temperatures will remain up to 10C below average until about April 20 – not just the UK, but in the rest of the world as well. Experts have declared the start of 2013 the coldest for 208 years, and they reckon it could become a whole lot colder.

Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory claimed it is proof we are heading for a “mini Ice Ageâ€. He said: “We are now on an unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.†According to Dr Abdussamatov, the Earth cools and warms in 200-year cycles. The last big freeze, known as the Little Ice Age, ended in 1805. And he claims the next freezing period for the Earth will begin next year.

http://www.dailystar...o-hit-next-year

Meanwhile on Earth, January and February have have been the joint 9th warmest on record globally, and, with January to March in the UK coolest since 1987

http://www.ncdc.noaa...c/global/2013/2

Where do the tabloids get these "facts"?

[Guest pjl20101]

BFTV to my mind the press are doing their usual tactic of trolling, its their job to do so. So they can make money and its illogical.

[laserguy]

Meanwhile on Earth, January and February have have been the joint 9th warmest on record globally...

Only the 9th, huh?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Only the 9th, huh?

As the quote goes...'there's lies, damn lies and statistics'.

It makes me question any of these figures that are banded around, whether they be warm or cold extremes.

Personally I seem to be hearing more often about cold extremes being broken yet somehow we're constantly hearing 'globally' we're in the top 10 warmest years. Seems we always are.....

Something tells me Birmingham could be sat in the middle of a glacier and we'd still be in the top 10 warmest years globally

Edited March 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

As the quote goes...'there's lies, damn lies and statistics'.

It makes me question any of these figures that are banded around, whether they be warm or cold extremes.

And there are also context-free, randomized bites of useless 'information' that leave us all wondering at their real purpose...In terms of the thread's original question: what does it matter if it's the 9th, 13th, 1st or even the 487th (in the past 987.53447, or whatever, years) warmest ever? It's a one-off...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Also I'll just add that I've never been a big fan of these 'conspiracy theories' doing the rounds BUT given how much investment and propaganda there has been from official agencies pedalling 'global warming' over the years it has to make one wonder whether a U-turn in thoughts would be feasible/acceptable. The growing number of 'climate experts' shifting their thoughts towards a colder outlook has to make you stop and think surely?

[johnholmes]

MINI ICE AGE TO HIT NEXT YEAR

AS Britain shivers through the coldest Easter ever, experts say we could be heading for a new Ice Age. Their frosty prediction comes as the Met Office has warned that temperatures will remain up to 10C below average until about April 20 – not just the UK, but in the rest of the world as well. Experts have declared the start of 2013 the coldest for 208 years, and they reckon it could become a whole lot colder.

Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory claimed it is proof we are heading for a “mini Ice Ageâ€. He said: “We are now on an unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.†According to Dr Abdussamatov, the Earth cools and warms in 200-year cycles. The last big freeze, known as the Little Ice Age, ended in 1805. And he claims the next freezing period for the Earth will begin next year.

http://www.dailystar...o-hit-next-year

old Hubert Lamb will be chortling in his grave at this. It is just what he predicted would happen in the 1970's prior to the GW/AGW starting up. Some of you may remember Magnus Magnusson standing on a map of Europe with snowflakes falling as Europe turned white. Not some crazy tv channel but the BBC 2. I love these swings and roundabouts from 'experts' predicting opposite ends of the temperature scale.

[Cheshire Freeze]

old Hubert Lamb will be chortling in his grave at this. It is just what he predicted would happen in the 1970's prior to the GW/AGW starting up. Some of you may remember Magnus Magnusson standing on a map of Europe with snowflakes falling as Europe turned white. Not some crazy tv channel but the BBC 2. I love these swings and roundabouts from 'experts' predicting opposite ends of the temperature scale.

Goes back to my point a couple of days back that no-one has a clue where we'll be climatically in 20-50 years time.

Best to keep a (very) open mind!

Edited March 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[Gary_R_Walker]

Also I'll just add that I've never been a big fan of these 'conspiracy theories' doing the rounds BUT given how much investment and propaganda there has been from official agencies pedalling 'global warming' over the years it has to make one wonder whether a U-turn in thoughts would be feasible/acceptable. The growing number of 'climate experts' shifting their thoughts towards a colder outlook has to make you stop and think surely?

I think that this is a weather forum that is frequented in the main by weather enthusiasts who have a tendency to like their weather a tad extreme. Be that cold and snowy, hot and stormy, hurricane or tornado. So when I hear one of the members say that they're "not a big fan of these conspiracy theories" It tends to make me raise an eyebrow in a Roger Moore kind of way.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think that this is a weather forum that is frequented in the main by weather enthusiasts who have a tendency to like their weather a tad extreme. Be that cold and snowy, hot and stormy, hurricane or tornado. So when I hear one of the members say that they're "not a big fan of these conspiracy theories" It tends to make me raise an eyebrow in a Roger Moore kind of way.

Haha, no I mean it! Objectivity is the key!

I like the extremes but consistently plumping for them just because you happen to want to see them is pointless and as far removed from reality as you could hope to get.

Edited March 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[jethro]

Before folk get their knickers in a twist about the Daily Star predicting another ice age, mini or otherwise, the paper they're referencing is a peer reviewed paper from an expert. The expert in question is Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, Director of Polkovo Observatory, St Pertersburg and Head of the Space Research Laboratory. He's a reputable Astrophysicist, not a crank forecaster like Madden.

The full paper is here: http://icecap.us/ima.../abduss_APR.pdf

Edited March 30, 2013 by jethro

[jethro]

Please stay on topic without descending to personal snipes and bickering. If you really cannot resist the urge to take pot shots at one another, please do it via PM, not in thread.

[Gary_R_Walker]

Before folk get their knickers in a twist about the Daily Star predicting another ice age, mini or otherwise, the paper they're referencing is a peer reviewed paper from an expert. The expert in question is Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, Director of Polkovo Observatory, St Pertersburg and Head of the Space Research Laboratory. He's a reputable Astrophysicist, not a crank forecaster like Madden.

The full paper is here: http://icecap.us/ima.../abduss_APR.pdf

I happen to know old Hab quite well, we met some years back at the Mecca Bingo hall in East Ham. A lovely fella.

[jethro]

I happen to know old Hab quite well, we met some years back at the Mecca Bingo hall in East Ham. A lovely fella.

Lol.

A question for those who are posting the temperature data for this year, or the last few years.....what has the past got to do with the future? The predicted Little Ice Age hasn't happened yet, some folk are wondering if the weather in recent years may be signs of the beginning of it. No one is saying we're in a Little Ice Age, people are merely pondering the possible prospect of one. The temperature data of the last few years is utterly irrelevant to this discussion.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Goes back to my point a couple of days back that no-one has a clue where we'll be climatically in 20-50 years time.

Best to keep a (very) open mind!

Claiming we have no idea is somewhat disingenuous, like claiming we have no idea what the weather will be like in 2 days. We actually have a very good idea. In 20 years time, we'll have a cool, temperate oceanic climate, that will likely be a few tenths of a degree warmer than today on average.

Similar predictions were the consensus among climate scientists in the 70s too, not an imminent ice age (despite the media hype). Those predictions turned out quite well!

Jethro,

At least Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov makes a prediction, deep cooling from next year. I guess we'll see what happens. Unfortunately though, he's another Heartland Institute regular. He has also claimed that we reached peak warming between 1998 and 2005, and that solar driven cooling was to be expected afterward (this before 2010 broke the previous records. Also the average temperature after 1998-2005 has been warmer).

[Guest pjl20101]

Lol.

A question for those who are posting the temperature data for this year, or the last few years.....what has the past got to do with the future? The predicted Little Ice Age hasn't happened yet, some folk are wondering if the weather in recent years may be signs of the beginning of it. No one is saying we're in a Little Ice Age, people are merely pondering the possible prospect of one. The temperature data of the last few years is utterly irrelevant to this discussion.

Personally I think we will enter a hibernation period in our weather like CC has mentioned, I think the weather over the next 50 years or so won't be as straight forward as the astrophysisists are suggesting. It to me will be a case of dog eat dog and lets see who wins.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Claiming we have no idea is somewhat disingenuous, like claiming we have no idea what the weather will be like in 2 days. We actually have a very good idea. In 20 years time, we'll have a cool, temperate oceanic climate, that will likely be a few tenths of a degree warmer than today on average.

Similar predictions were the consensus among climate scientists in the 70s too, not an imminent ice age (despite the media hype). Those predictions turned out quite well!

Yes but you're making the mistake of extrapolating from just one example within a (relatively) miniscule timeframe. Just because in the 1970's there was a consensus for what we happen to be seeing now, it doesn't mean that the same will be true this time.

There's a very big difference between having strong suspisions and actually KNOWING to a 99.9% degree what will happen in future years. There just isn't any proof as the next 50 years haven't happened yet.....(or have they?).....sorry wrong thread

[jethro]

Claiming we have no idea is somewhat disingenuous, like claiming we have no idea what the weather will be like in 2 days. We actually have a very good idea. In 20 years time, we'll have a cool, temperate oceanic climate, that will likely be a few tenths of a degree warmer than today on average.

Similar predictions were the consensus among climate scientists in the 70s too, not an imminent ice age (despite the media hype). Those predictions turned out quite well!

Jethro,

At least Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov makes a prediction, deep cooling from next year. I guess we'll see what happens. Unfortunately though, he's another Heartland Institute regular. He has also claimed that we reached peak warming between 1998 and 2005, and that solar driven cooling was to be expected afterward (this before 2010 broke the previous records. Also the average temperature after 1998-2005 has been warmer).

The Heartland has nothing to do with this discussion. What matters when it comes to papers is whether or not the author is qualified, is reputable and whether or not it passes peer review.

As for predictions, making them is more important than whether or not they validate. Many, many qualified people made predictions for Solar cycle 24, the list from NASA is a long one, one by one they've fallen by the wayside. Much of the Sun, it's behaviour and impact is unknown, only by trying and publishing theories can the information be honed. Personally, I'd rather a failed prediction with sound and published science behind the prediction, than a wild pot shot which proves uncannily accurate but that cannot be tried, nor tested due to lack of testable science.

The Sun may yet make fools of us all, but that won't stop the information and predictions being interesting. And I don't think anyone's in a position to say what theory or prediction is right or wrong at the moment, we simply don't know. What we do know though is historically the LIA didn't affect all the globe equally, it's impacts were most keenly felt in NW Europe and even then, not just cooling. Looking for signs of a new Little Ice Age in global average figures is a waste of time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Heartland has nothing to do with this discussion. What matters when it comes to papers is whether or not the author is qualified, is reputable and whether or not it passes peer review.

As for predictions, making them is more important than whether or not they validate. Many, many qualified people made predictions for Solar cycle 24, the list from NASA is a long one, one by one they've fallen by the wayside. Much of the Sun, it's behaviour and impact is unknown, only by trying and publishing theories can the information be honed. Personally, I'd rather a failed prediction with sound and published science behind the prediction, than a wild pot shot which proves uncannily accurate but that cannot be tried, nor tested due to lack of testable science.

The Sun may yet make fools of us all, but that won't stop the information and predictions being interesting. And I don't think anyone's in a position to say what theory or prediction is right or wrong at the moment, we simply don't know. What we do know though is historically the LIA didn't affect all the globe equally, it's impacts were most keenly felt in NW Europe and even then, not just cooling. Looking for signs of a new Little Ice Age in global average figures is a waste of time.

Exactly Jethro, very well put!

[be cause]

do you mean 'collapse of ice cover'?

No .. I mean what I say ..For the last few summers Northern Hemisphere snow cover has crashed ...but I have not got separate stats for on land snow cover .. if BFTV or GW (or anyone ...even Jethro !) have such I would like them to be allowed to bring them to this conversation .. or to me on PM (which I now know means ...)

What I was saying is that this years stats might be worth watching .. current NH snow cover is @ 10% above average for the end of March and in many places rather deep .and with all this blocking going on ... this thread could run and run ...

[Methuselah]

Before folk get their knickers in a twist about the Daily Star predicting another ice age, mini or otherwise, the paper they're referencing is a peer reviewed paper from an expert. The expert in question is Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, Director of Polkovo Observatory, St Pertersburg and Head of the Space Research Laboratory. He's a reputable Astrophysicist, not a crank forecaster like Madden.

The full paper is here: http://icecap.us/ima.../abduss_APR.pdf

But is he a climatologist?

But, anywho, J, I'm pretty much with Crewe Cold on this one: none of us knows what the global climate will be like in, say, fifty years' time...I'm sceptical about many a prediction concerning the myriad feedbacks that increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 (and that's an observed phenomenon) might instigate; I'm even more suspicious, when attempting to imagine what might happen in response to something that (being only a prediction) no-one knows is even going to happen...

[laserguy]

And there are also context-free, randomized bites of useless 'information' that leave us all wondering at their real purpose...In terms of the thread's original question: what does it matter if it's the 9th, 13th, 1st or even the 487th (in the past 987.53447, or whatever, years) warmest ever? It's a one-off...

My response to this has been deleted. Wasn't offensive or inflammatory or provocative in any way, so I'll try again. Why therefore is it OK for you to endorse BFTV for bringing this nugget of information to our attention, then to have a go at folk who pick up on it?

[be cause]

But, with global temps being stable-ish (depending upon which paper you choose to cite), there's no evidence to support that idea, at all...

I wont cite any papers I have not been into the future to retrieve them ... however I can see and feel evidence all around me that things (as in weather ...which makes climate after all) are changing and I am excited by change ..

Until recently , the only future I was told I could depend on was runaway AGW . I like a wealth of possibilities and with Polar ice melt I can see new creative opportunities for Gaia (for those who object to Mother Nature).

[Methuselah]

I wont cite any papers I have not been into the future to retrieve them ... however I can see and feel evidence all around me that things (as in weather ...which makes climate after all) are changing and I am excited by change ..

Until recently , the only future I was told I could depend on was runaway AGW . I like a wealth of possibilities and with Polar ice melt I can see new creative opportunities for Gaia (for those who object to Mother Nature).

I agree, be cause. Absolutely! But, as we've seen before, changes over human lifetimes don't necessarily add-up to anything long-term. Whatever ideas we may have, 5- or 6-years' data are insufficient for making realistic predictions...A couple of hot summers/mild winters and all the media hype about imminent frost fairs will be but a distant memory...