Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[UV-RAY]

It's all speculation until August, but looking at the CFS V2 charts for the NH and providing they are right then we could be looking at a quite a large recovery.

Edit; Why can't I get the link to download?

[Gray-Wolf]

But where's the fun in that Pete? 

 

It's like Jengo (or something similar) , the fun is trying to 'understand' the rapidly changing situation and 'predicting' how , and when, the tower will fall?

 

Something truly phenomenal is occurring (and in those few span years we have allotted as a 'life') that no human being has witnessed before?

 

If we actually grabbed the crucial piece that has the tower fall then isn't it fascinating guessing just where ,and how, the tower will tumble?

 

There is nothing 'personal' in all of this just a system working out of kilter and , as with the climate system as a whole, I find it fascinating?

 

Like Hurricanes and tornadoes there is a majesty all there own in their functioning..... the 'horror' comes when you realise the 'human ' impact such majesty might be inflicting  on the humans below?

 

As it is Koch and co. give us an excuse not to care and just watch unhindered ( if it's all just 'Natural' then what the hell do we need worry about? we did not inflict this on the poor blighters impacted... if not? well then that's your own moral 'choice' on how it makes you feel?)

 

The start of the true Arctic Basin melt season is on us now and both last years low, and the impact that has on ice age/distribution/thickness, will slowly reveal it's impacts on just how the season will progress.

 

My belief is that the ice is now so degraded that a sub 07' year (even without those amazing coincidences of weather and export????!!!) is the most probable outcome (who'd have thunk it eh?!!!) and on previous years 'watching' we are bound to see something 'new' and revealing about how the ice now acts (I think even BFTV is a convert to the 'novel' working of the Arctic with the 'old currency' of how the basin reacts now defunct?).

 

We have the melt out of the CAA to witness over the next 7 weeks and isn't that a hoot? All those years spent trying to ply a route through (and the winter lay overs) and now folk take small boats around the basin in a single season!!!

 

Enjoy the spectacle my friend.....what else can you do?

[Geordiesnow]

What an extraordinary post, you only need look at the stats and currently area is well up on recent years, who is in denial?You seem to have so much invested in death spiral semantics, I fear you may suffer a nervous breakdown if ice responds to recent lack of warming by recovering.As seems possible from this years slow melt. 

 

Ice extent is only a tad higher than 2012 at the moment, the melt season is still young and we got around another 2 and half months of sustained melting to go so way to early to get carried away by the slower than usual decline. 

 

I do feel extent may not go down as quickly as 2012 did in the first part of June looking at the 30% ice coverage charts, remember 2012 30% coverage ice extent was declining rapidly now and soon afterwards, it declined quickly on the 15% coverage, so far this year its remaining steady so one would assume ice extent at 15% coverage won't decline as quickly for the foreseeable future but looking at the charts, some very mild air is going to affect Kara/Barants seas and Baffin and more likely Hudson Bay is going to get a huge chunk of warm air soon hitting these areas as we go into next week so the extent could soon go down 

 

I respect GW posts, yes some of them do seem a bit over dramatic but his science behind his predictions are very plausible and you can't argue with the stats really. 

 

It will be an interesting melt season too see how this year will fare after the dramatic ice loss of 2012, will it "recover" in terms of extent figures like it did in 2008 or will it be around the 2012 mark or even lower. Too early too tell at this stage either way so sit back and watch with interest is what I will say. 

[Gray-Wolf]

In response to the importance of 'eckman pumping' from events like the LP ( now fading?) in the central basin Chris Reynolds brings us this;

 

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=97670&tid=3622&cid=44107

 

it appears it may well play a role in such events? (and an increasing one as snow/ice declines further?) With a 'seasonal pack' it may well be the source of the 'overturning event' that helps lead up to a year round ice free Arctic Ocean?

[stewfox]

Cryosat2 confirmed the accuracy of the PIOMAS observations and so helps validate the accuracy of the methodology throughout both their operation and their 'hindcasts' of how ice volumes used to be.

 

If you have no problem with the cryosat 2 data then surely you also accept the validity of the PIOMAS data?

 

 

Anyhow , back to the 'new Arctic' and what we can expect of the ice through the rest of the melt cycle.

 

come Sept?

 

EDIT: 4? LOL.

 

Many thanks for the comment on volume, useful to know. Any comment about a fragmented core could be pushing ice out.(BFTV post)? As you have suggested there are not other years we can compare with.

Edited June 3, 2013 by stewfox

[VillagePlank]

Just a quick question (honestly don't know) ... does ice volume affect albedo? It seems fairly straightforward that ice extent does (since it's a measure of the reflective surface) but does volume? ie is albedo limited to the surface or, say, top inch, top foot, top mile ?

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd imagine only in that higher volumes lead to thicker ice? 1m ice has no issue allowing a good deal of light into the ocean below (hence those mega blooms on the ice base that teams discovered last summer?......which in themselves must lower the albedo of the ice above???)

 

So , by late July a lot of the FY ice offers no protection to the waters below and so helps with the 'bottom melt' portion of the Season?

[VillagePlank]

So, in other words, since ice is translucent, a better proxy for ice albedo is ice volume rather than extent? Is their some sort of study that merges the two measures? For instance, we could have a column of ice 10 miles thick, say, but only a metre wide, which, I'd imagine wouldn't affect albedo much, but a 1cm ice sheet covering the entire N hemisphere would?

[Gray-Wolf]

It's a puzzler eh? 1m ice, by it's very nature, would be set among lots of broken ice/open water (in the real world) so it would be difficult to tease apart the energy transfer through the ice from the 'seep' at the edges of floes?

 

The fracture event has effectively made the pack into a 'grenade' with easily broken off small floes glued together by late formed ice. We can see this over the area that the small Arctic cyclone (SAC13?)  loitered recently with stretches of open water between some very small (small enough to have been 'flipped' during the storm?) ice. This area now basks under the elongated H.P. system from Barentsz into East Siberian.

 

When we hit the 'June Cliff' in melt levels we might find this event has played quite a large role in prepping the area for melt out?

 

If this low wasn't enough we expect a 980mb low to have a thrash for a couple of days , before fizzling, later in the week?

[4wd]

You're making too much of the 'fracture event' the only reason it's being played up is that we have quite good imagery of it for the first time.As others keep mentioned, the main effect was spreading to cover a larger area, and any open water revealed refroze within days.I expect the same thing must have happened many times before, it is not some new unprecedented event.

Or if it is you have no way to prove it one way or the other.We do not know everything about what is normal.

[Geordiesnow]

You're making too much of the 'fracture event' the only reason it's being played up is that we have quite good imagery of it for the first time.As others keep mentioned, the main effect was spreading to cover a larger area, and any open water revealed refroze within days.I expect the same thing must have happened many times before, it is not some new unprecedented event.

Or if it is you have no way to prove it one way or the other.We do not know everything about what is normal.

 

I'm not sure he is really tbh, we are getting to the time of year where temps are just not low enough to allow for substancial refreezing and its quite unusual too see 2 relatively deep lows(deep in the sence how tightly together the isobars are going around the low) in quick succession and the first low did not even seem all that deep but according to the images, it appears to of lower the concentration of the ice not too far away from the pole! So goodness knows what impacts the 2nd low will have on the ice. 

 

I am concerned by this, I really am, in general having a low pressure dominated Arctic in the summer month is not a bad thing but you don't want deep depressions like these ones when the ice is weaker these days. The saving grace is that these lows do have reletively cold air embedded in them unlike the August one which had alot of very warm air being pumped in from the landmasses at first so I suppose the ice could recover somewhat but we have to wait and see. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The next week could prove very interesting across the Arctic.

 

We have a somewhat deep low pressure across the Arctic for the next few days dipping below 980hPa at times with a tight pressure gradient.

 

.......... ....T6 ................ .............. .......T48

 

Generally this isn't a problem. Low pressure, or +ve AO, in summer can be associated with cooler temperatures, cloudiness and a less amplified jet stream. The increased wind wouldn't do much as the ice pack would be quite solid and thick.

 

Nowadays, as was shown by last weeks conditions, even a moderate low can disrupt the central pack, lowering the concentration and leaving the ice more susceptible to future conditions. In this case, the likely disruption of the pack is going to be followed a strong dipole pattern, which will drive the sea ice toward the Atlantic and bring in much milder conditions across the central and Pacific side of the Arctic.

 

 

The low pressure over the Eurasian side and the high pressure across the N. American side (the dipole pattern) drives the sea ice towards the Atlantic. At the same time, warmer air gets dragged in towards the Chukchi sea, just north of the Bering strait, and across the central Arctic (the dipole was a strong contributor towards the 2007 event, and the 4 record minima before that).

 

.................. .......dipole at t144 ........................... .... upper air value t144 & t168

 

This pulls surface temperatures up above 0C across most of the Arctic also

 

 

Coupled with all this, it appears that conditions around Hudson bay are going to warm up significantly and stay warm for the next week at least, so we could see some high losses here too.

 

Between the conditions across the Arctic, and Hudson Bay, we should start seeing our first regular >100,000km2 losses by about next weekend.

[BornFromTheVoid]

PIOMAS has updated an we're now slightly above 2012 and 2011 and close to 2010.

 

 

We're almost the same as 2012 on average thickness

 

 

[be cause]

PIOMAS has updated an we're now slightly above 2012 and 2011 and close to 2010.

 

 

We're almost the same as 2012 on average thickness

 

Thought we were doing rather well 'till I realized I as looking at 1990 and not 2013. It does not look like the Arctic drama is over by any stretch of the imagination .. And now a low with 100 km + winds .. just what all that lovely 1st year ice needed ...

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest NSIDC update...

 

Un-baked Alaska

 

Arctic sea ice extent declined at a near-average rate through May, but overall it remained below average compared to the 1979 to 2000 average. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) varied through the month between modest positive and negative phases. Slack winds over central Alaska allowed cold air to stay in place and made much of the month unusually cold there. The last part of the month saw much higher temperatures.

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/06/un-baked-alaska/

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking back over the previous September data, the largest increase from one year to the next is 1.75 million km2 (1995 to 1996), with the largest drop being 1.62 million km2 (2006 to 2007).

This would give us a range this year of 1.99 to 5.36 million km2, or lowest on record to 6th lowest on record.

 

Also, the longest streak of consecutive falls in September mean extent is 3. This occurred twice, between 1996 and 1999 (7.88, 6.74, 6.56, 6.24) and between 2009 and 2012 (5.35, 4.93, 4.63, 3.61).

There hasn't been more than 2 consecutive increases in the September mean extent on the entire record.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like SAC13's damage is now able to be seen by the sensors? Looks like we' will be following 2012's line through the rest of June? Possibly steeper as the sun takes effect and the slightly larger SAC13(2) again hits the central pack (what happened to the days when a Low Pressure system meant cloud and reduced melt and not fragmentation , open water and small floes tossed by 100kph winds until melted.....plus eckman pumping of lower waters to the surface????)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I've been thinking that surely with a much thinner layer of ice, we would see a melt out virtually, and to note also that there would be less quantity of cold water being released due to the thinner sheet, meaning that water temps would restore to normal quicker, and 2012 was just a one off case with all the old ice and much thicker ice disappearing releasing huge amounts of cold water into the oceans, meaning an extreme change in the jet stream. 

This maybe why the jet this year so far has been in more of a normal state, when last year it was holidaying in spain leaving us with nothing but lows smack bang on top of us or under us. 

P.S Greenland and NF have virtually open water already surrounding them except the far North.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi EES91!

 

We do appear to see less and less fresh ,cold water from ice melt but this is supplemented from the increased flow rates from the rivers flowing into the basin on from increased Greenland melt?

 

The 'difference' to how things used to be is the amount of open water that can be 'overturned' by depressions? Currently we appear to have a steady stream of central basin LP systems crunching the ice?

 

With June normally showing our melt rates pick up to summer levels (100km2 days) these storms will be of interest. Will they augment melt rates or will they protect the ice? In the old basin the cloudy conditions used to help keep melt rates down but recent summers have shown the ice now being badly impacted by such systems? Recent summers have seen a lot more HP systems over the basin that we have seen so far this summer and I have to wonder whether we are still seeing the knock on effects of all that extra melt last year?

 

I had postulated that our summer (here in the UK) might not follow the trend of the post 07' summers due to the extra melt out of Arctic sea ice last summer and we do appear to have a different 'set up' over us for the past few months? Too soon to call it but I did moot a more HP dominated season for us ( thinking the extra 'changes' that last years record low placed into the system would demand the Jet positioning to be markedly different to the previous 6 years?). The folk who like to see low solar as the driver for a HP dominated N. Atlantic are going to have to do a bit of head scratching about why we are seeing such a situation over solar Max?

 

Though 'clumsy' at best I can see the whole of the Jet pattern shifted East with the S.Greenland High of previous years now being responsible for our higher pressure regime and central Europe picking up the trough that used to sit to our SW the past 6 summers?

 

Back to the ice and what we can expect up there? I think that if we see another 2 months of central pack LP systems that we will begin to see very high loss days as the ice becomes ever more battered and it's surface to mass ratio plummets allowing for very rapid Ablation? The wind field will also push the ice out of the central region and into the  fringe regions (now snow cover of the land there has plummeted into neg anom figures from showing positive anom figures....all over 6 weeks???) that will now be warmed by the rapidly heating inner continents.?

 

It would be the greatest of all ironies to see a season dominated by LP systems, that once would have produced high ice levels come Sept ,be responsible for another across the board record ice loss year?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Indeed, I think this year could be another tragedy up there. I kept seeing and hearing of a massive low at the end of August last year completely obliterating the ice and enhancing extra melting. If this is going to be the case yet again, and with much thinner ice, my statement is heaven help us! 

Records could quite easily be broken yet again this year if I'm honest.

You've got to think though, what problems will this create for us further down the line? All that extra humidity being stored up there will only go on to become deep snowfall in other areas in late Autumn/early winter, this in itself may also lead to some extremities in areas that are not used to seeing such heavy snowfalls, a great example being the UK!

Pressure patterns may alter because of the scale of snow cover levels across the N Hemisphere. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the 'Great Arctic cyclone 12' of early Aug, did not have the impact on ice levels some folk would like you to believe? Much of the million shed was already about to 'blink out' ( as we saw in the Canadian Archipelago just prior to GAC12). the problems it brought were the mixing of the surface water and , as such storms become more common over open Arctic water, this will continue to be true. The depth of mixing that some buoys measured impacted the bottom, warm, Atlantic waters and the concern must be that the halocline above (cold,fresher) is lost/mixed out?

 

The warmth brought into the basin by the Atlantic bottom waters (and pacific bottom waters) would already render the basin ice free year round if it were at the surface and so the longer we can keep a 'cap' over this resource the better?

 

It has been a very different (more 'normal'?) year over the basin thus far so I have to wonder if this will continue? Before i witnessed the 'change' to the impacts of weather types the succession of Lows would have had me hoping for a 'rebound year' well above last years record low but seeing as I know this weather type can now actively destroy ice (or at least smash the thin ice we have to bits?) then I cannot feel confident about the Sept Min.?

 

if ice is flung out to the peripheries then it would place a cold source right next to war source of the continents? To me this speaks of low formation and the bigger the contrast between the air masses the more vigorous the Low?

 

Though we may see a very different 'weather year' I think the 'ice year' will be just as dramatic as the last 6 years and may well alter the 'make up' of the basin ice expanding further the amount of First year ice compared to older ice.

 

To me this is the precursor to a seasonal pack with a basin full of young, thin ice that is able to completely melt out over an average year? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest NSIDC extent for June

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest to the 6th

 

 

I wonder how closely we'll follow the 2012 line? Looks like a period of strong melting may be coming up with a strong dipole and plenty of warmth on the Pacific side.

Between June 5th and June 12th 2012, the Arctic lost over a million km2 in extent, which was the largest 1 week melt that summer. A tough act to follow, but I think a ~600k loss over that time this year could be expected.

The largest 1 week melt so far this year was 517,900km2, between April 24th and May 1st. The latest week long melt up to the 6th June is 476,620km2

 

EDIT: Another pointless stat, we've just dropped below 80% of the maximum sea ice extent set on March 14th.

Edited June 7, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the weather up there does not seem to want to follow 2012 BFTV!

 

The low setting up over the pole looks to last an age (the complete 180hrs on GFS and 240hrs on ECWFM!!) I'd ask again is it possible that the actual 'spin' of the planet could help keep such a low lodged over the pole for great duration's of time?

 

With this 'New' Arctic of young, thin ice I really have to wonder if such synoptics could end up being very poor for the ice there? If peripheral areas keep warm ( and deal with their ice) then does that not just produce killing fields for ice to be flung out into? Will it not mess around with the ocean profile introducing warmer, saltier waters to the surface whilst mixing out Fresher, colder melt/river run off???

 

The breaks in the cloud up there today already show a pretty mangled central pack (note the 'rounded' floes, not lozenge shaped as more normal for the time of year?) so another bashing must surely only make it's ability to survive the season less (esp. if we keep seeing the surface to mass ratio of individual floes keep favouring higher surface area??).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Things certainly looking interesting now.

The recent low, although not that strong, is readily breaking up the central Arctic ice, leaving a unique pattern of low concentration ice in the centre and high concentration on the peripheral regions.

 

Cryosphere today has picked up on this, with yesterday having a massive 247k drop in area, mostly from the central Arctic. I don't think this will translate to a similarly large extent drop today as much of the concentration remains above 15%.