Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[be cause]

I hadn't seen this area predicting graph until recently, basically it shows the current area then automatically predicts the next few weeks using a range of options from previous years

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-area#asiapts

 

well I will stick my neck out and predict minimum area at under 2 million sq kms this year and will not be surprised if it reaches1m

[BornFromTheVoid]

A small upward tick in the NSIDC extent, further widening the gap between the area and extent measurements.

 

Which will budge first? I suspect the area will slow down considerably, while extent losses will pick up over the next few days.

[Methuselah]

I hadn't seen this area predicting graph until recently, basically it shows the current area then automatically predicts the next few weeks using a range of options from previous years

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-area#asiapts

 

That seems very reasonable, 4!

[stewfox]

well I will stick my neck out and predict minimum area at under 2 million sq kms this year and will not be surprised if it reaches1m

Based on what ? None of the predictions come close to that.

 

Its a interesting mix this year that for sure

[knocker]

Arctic monthly surface air temperature anomalies versus average 1998-2006 north of 50^oN for May.

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

A loss of 208k yesterday on Cryosphere today, with the NSIDC extent dropping by just 50k, and IJIS extent dropping 104k.

[knocker]

EUMETSAT

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Big drops on both CT and NSIDC today, not so much for IJIS.

We're now within 3 million km2 of 5 previous sea ice area minima

 

Weekly trends in extent loss are still well below the average of the last few years though, but area loss has been close to the average of the last few years.

[stewfox]

Big drops on both CT and NSIDC today, not so much for IJIS.

We're now within 3 million km2 of 5 previous sea ice area minima

 

 

Weekly trends in extent loss are still well below the average of the last few years though, but area loss has been close to the average of the last few years.

 

Another spin.

 

Or 700,000 km2 above last year re IJIS.

 

2007,11 and 12 were at 8m early July

 

Are we going to lose 2.5m in the next 8-10days. ?? Think not

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another spin.

 

Or 700,000 km2 above last year re IJIS.

 

2007,11 and 12 were at 8m early July

 

Are we going to lose 2.5m in the next 8-10days. ?? Think not

 

Spin? Can you be more specific or are you just making up random accusations?

[Geordiesnow]

Another spin.

 

Or 700,000 km2 above last year re IJIS.

 

2007,11 and 12 were at 8m early July

 

Are we going to lose 2.5m in the next 8-10days. ?? Think not

 

Looking at the 30% coverage, you would sort of doubt there be a huge drop in extent in the next few days on a consistant basis at least and conditions do look reasonable enough across most of the basin with reletively slack low pressure across most of the basin being forecast by the models. 

 

Not surprised by the bigger drop on the NSIDC though, extent has not really dropped all that much but it still kind of matches what JAXA shows so I would think tomorrow may be a smaller drop. Wait and see though. 

[Methuselah]

All the talk of 'spin' is actually quite amusing...What 'spin'?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I wouldn't mind an answer myself. Some of the so called "sceptics" being allowed to throw around baseless accusation as they please is getting kinda tiring.

Stewfox likes to make the same bias and spin claims against me every now and then without any justification.

Edited June 24, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Southern Storm]

Another spin. Or 700,000 km2 above last year re IJIS. 2007,11 and 12 were at 8m early July Are we going to lose 2.5m in the next 8-10days. ?? Think not

Little harsh dont you think?Bftv is one of the most strait talking people within this thread, he's just posting facts.I wish people would wait until the end of the melt season before getting excited about a modest Increase from last year.We are ticking along nicely at the moment, but let's not get ahead of ourselves!

[stewfox]

All the talk of 'spin' is actually quite amusing...What 'spin'?

 

Always choosing negatives, 3m off at least 5yrs artic mins. Its a fact so I'll say

 

IJIS highest we have seen for the whole of this century for this time of year.

 

Currently as we head towards July it is the 19th highest on record or the 13th lowest Not trying to knock anyone but it could be a lot worse and I'm aware of the short fall of IJIS.

Edited June 24, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Always choosing negatives, 3m off at least 5yrs artic mins. Its a fact so I'll say

 

IJIS highest we have seen for the whole of this century for this time of year.

 

Currently as we head towards July it is the 19th highest on record or the 13th lowest Not trying to knock anyone but it could be a lot worse and I'm aware of the short fall of IJIS.

 

I mentioned the negatives in the sea ice area with the large drops and distance from previous minima, if you want to call them negatives.

Then the positives in the extent, the fact that the loss rate has continued below the average of the last few years.

 

I never made out that the situation was dire or that the extent was due to drop by 2.5 million by July.

[Geordiesnow]

I would be more encouraged with the current ice extent if the current thicknesses were not so low in parts of the Basin, the melt season is still reletively young and melting from the sun will last at least 6-8 weeks before SST's become the main factor in ice melt so theres still a long way regarding this years sea ice extent and I would not be surprised if we see some flash melt later on in the season due to the low thicknesses to the East of the North pole.

 

That said, if my predictions have been anything to go by so far this melt season, then that prediction above would be wrong but I won't be surprised if we ended up around 2012 again but having said that, some areas are doing better than last year so hopefully some sort of positive feedback will occur and that more sea ice tends to lead to more sea ice.

 

Hopefully weather patterns will remain favorable and in general we see slack set ups dominating for the rest of the summer.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the 30% coverage, you would sort of doubt there be a huge drop in extent in the next few days on a consistant basis at least and conditions do look reasonable enough across most of the basin with reletively slack low pressure across most of the basin being forecast by the models. 

 

Not surprised by the bigger drop on the NSIDC though, extent has not really dropped all that much but it still kind of matches what JAXA shows so I would think tomorrow may be a smaller drop. Wait and see though. 

 

If you're going by the DMI 30% extent, make sure you're looking at the right source, here. This shows a steep decline recently, with us dropping below 2005 and 2009.

The one shown on the "sea ice graphs" page is from their new 15% extent graphs and is stuck on the 11th. The updated version can be found here

 

Old version 30% extent graph

 

New 15% extent graph

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest NSIDC update has a 139k drop, making it 266k over the last 2 days and giving the highest 7 day fall this month (2nd highest of the melt season).

A new graph here, made by getting the 7 day total extent drop and dividing it by 7, so the 7 day mean daily loss (I'm sure there must be a better way to phrase that?).

 

 

2012 really stands out, as does the consistency of 2013 so far. Are we about to reach our first rapid melt phase of the year? Or will we once again be surprised and have 2013 move back near to average?

Only time will tell I guess!

 

EDIT: CT continues it's rapid falls and minor jumps, with an increase of 14k, after a 131k drop the previous day.

Edited June 25, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Geordiesnow]

With respect BFTV, I have indeed been looking at the right source and at the time of my post yesterday, the extent line was flat but I did have a look this morning and noticed the rather steep drop. Whether this is the start of steeper drops in extent remains to be seen, I guess the next few days should be interesting too see if this will be the case or not.

 

From my experience, it does seem when we see a steep drop on the 30% coverage, there is normally a day or two lag before the 15% extent line responds. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

With respect BFTV, I have indeed been looking at the right source and at the time of my post yesterday, the extent line was flat but I did have a look this morning and noticed the rather steep drop. Whether this is the start of steeper drops in extent remains to be seen, I guess the next few days should be interesting too see if this will be the case or not.

 

From my experience, it does seem when we see a steep drop on the 30% coverage, there is normally a day or two lag before the 15% extent line responds. 

 

Sorry GS, I wasn't actually commenting on your interpretation of graphs, which I agree with.

Just I've noticed a few places online where people have thought the new 15% graphs were similar to the 30% ones, so I was just making sure, no offence intended

 

I agree that we should expect the 30% measure to drop first.

 

Based on the current output, I'm gonna stick my next out and say that we're about to begin the first rapid drop in extent of the melt season (so very much above average). The charts are strongly indicating that very mild air will flood the Kara sea over the next few days. This currently has about 750k km2 of thin ice that is prime for a rapid melt out.

The extent is finally falling in Hudson Bay now as well as large areas drop below 15%, and with abour 900k left there too, much of which is teetering above 15% concentration, it's also prime ice for a rapid melt, with several pulses of very warm air set to sweep across over the coming week. I think we'll also see rapid melt of ice in the Baffin sea over the next 3 days, before cooler air arrives at the weekend. This region has another 750k left to melt.

 

We also look set to maintain a lot of mild air across the Chukchi, Beaufort and wester CA over the coming week, which should start taking its toll on the area, and perhaps the extent next week.

 

I'd say a drop of over 1 million km2 in extent during the next week is possible.

 

.............t24 ........................... .....................t168

Edited June 25, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Coast]

Wild Alaskan weather intensifies climate debate

 

Nothing but blue skies… This rare satellite image of a completely cloudless Alaska triggered media debate this week on whether climate change and melting Arctic sea ice are to blame. The true picture looks more nuanced.

 

 

Release of the image by NASA coincided with a heatwave that saw the mercury hit 36 °C in Talkeetna – 160 kilometres north of Anchorage – on 17 June, and record-breaking temperatures in at least three other towns. Yet just weeks ago, the state saw unseasonably late snow and cold weather, prompting former Alaskan governor and climate sceptic, Sarah Palin, to mockingly dismiss global warming on her Facebook page: "Global warming my gluteus maximus".

 

Meteorologists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned last week that it is far too early to link the freak Alaskan weather to climate change. "The jury is out on any individual events and their relationship to specific long term drivers," said Deke Arndt, chief of climate monitoring at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, during a routine monthly climate teleconference. "It takes time to connect the dots."

 

Unusual blockage

 

Earlier today, Eugene Petrescu, a regional NOAA scientist in Anchorage, told New Scientist that unusual blockages and deviations in the jet stream – the fast current of air that normally travels West to East across the northern hemisphere – are most likely to be responsible for both the cold and hot spells in Alaska. When the jet stream turned sharply south, it trapped Alaska in currents of cold air from Siberia and the Arctic. More recently, it veered sharply north, bringing with it bubbles of warm tropical air from the south, resulting in the current Alaskan heatwave. "It's eased a bit, but it's going to happen again next week," says Petrescu.

 

As to whether global warming is what is causing the jet stream to deviate, Petrescu says there is too little data as yet. "Right now, we can't say yes or no," he says.

 

Ice shrinking

 

But Petrescu said that global warming and the rapid melting of Arctic ice is definitely having an impact on Alaska's ice cover, particularly in the north, where average annual temperatures rose by 1.7 °C between 2000 and 2010. "Each summer, the main Arctic ice pack has been melting back, and now by each autumn there's less than 50 per cent of what was there historically," he says. The result in Alaska is that the ice that borders the north of the state for most of the year is absent for a month longer in summer, re-forming in November rather than October. The delayed freezing is blamed on higher sea-surface temperatures.

 

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23747-wild-alaskan-weather-intensifies-climate-debate.html#.Ucq2aTumj4s

 

My underlining and still leaves me undecided!

Edited June 26, 2013 by Coast

[BornFromTheVoid]

The  large extent losses continue with the NSIDC, 84k today and 350k over the last 3 days.

 

Meanwhile, the rapid fall on CT area has ended, with a loss of just 13k over the last 2 days.

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS now joining in with 234k lost over the last 2 days. The concentration maps here suggests the losses were mostly from Baffin, Chukchi, Kara and Hudson Bay.

 

After what was some of the best conditions for sea ice retention over the last 8-10 weeks that we've seen in probably over a decade, it will be fascinating to see just how much of a difference that has made over the next 2 months.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Large drops from the 3 most used sea ice measure on the forum today.

 

IJIS...................-123k

CT................... -116k

NSIDC............. -146k