Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Gray-Wolf]

So , how do you guys think that the upcoming storm will impact the ice that we have left?

 

One thing that screams out to me is how ice conditions differ from last year. Last summer the ice cover was pretty solid across the central pack so the Atlantic side of the basin was spared from the type of mauling the Beaufort side recieved? This time the pack is rubble so the swells will have no problem in pushing right through the basin ( no 'damping out' by the ice cover) and tumbling/overwashing the ice ( remember , no matter what the 2m temps say water over ice melts the ice!).

 

It also looks like the Greenie High will be in place meaning quite a pressure grad. from low centre into the high so we should expect some pretty choppy conditions between the two?

 

Last year we were jumped on for calling GAC12 an 'anomalous low' ( only for the same folk to then 'flip-flop' when they saw an excuse, other than warming, for the record losses we saw?). With us now about to have a 'back to back' experience of such vicious lows, even with such differing 'weather' through the two melt seasons, are we starting to see what high land temps and cold ice rubble spawn late in the new melt seasons?

[knocker]

Good question GW. I remember the paper from last year that concluded the storm didn't have that great an impact but conditions are very different at the moment.

 

Sea Ice coverage on the northern hemisphere

Edited July 21, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Indeed sir ( though some would seek to blame all of the melt on that single 'unprecidented' event???).

 

This time around we have ice that is well fractured but a few weeks 'behind' what we are accustomed to and the 'rapid rinse' cycle it is about to go through may well overturn that difference ( imagine broken ice in a drink, leave one to melt and stir up one for a few minutes.......any differences?).

 

I am sold on the notion that the loss of the 'backbone' of the Arctic ice pack means the shift to 'seasonal' is enevitable. The difference weather makes is apparently being shown to be far less of a driver than it used to be in 'The Old Arctic'? We have seen 'Average years' break what it took a 'perfect melt storm' to do in 07' (2011 and 2012) and now it looks likely that a cold, stormy ,early season does not mean ice retention? Though melt rates may have been pegged back over that period the ice was still being 'denatured' by the weather allowing for the rapid melt we have just witnessed once summer established over the basin ( grinding ice down makes a much larger surface area to mass difference and so the mass soaks up energy fasr faster through that larger surface area).

 

It has been one hell of a season and I think some of the folk using 'old money' ,to calculate the basins reactions to conditions, will find themselves caught out as the Basin now only accepts the 'New Currency'?

[knocker]

US Navy, Coast Guard Prep for Ice-Free Arctic

 

The question of the Arctic Ocean becoming seasonally ice-free as a result of climate change is no longer one of “if†but “when.†And while environmentalists and scientists may bemoan the consequences for polar bears, ringed seals or weather patterns, many governments see opportunity.

 

One opportunity is shortened transit times for cargo vessels, particularly from Atlantic to Pacific (and vice versa) via the Northern Sea Route across the top of Russia, and to a lesser extent via the fabled Northwest Passage through Canada’s Arctic archipelago. A recent study concluded that the Northern Sea Route could become completely navigable for part of the year by mid-century at latest.

 

http://news.discovery.com/earth/oceans/us-navy-coast-guard-prepare-for-ice-free-arctic-130722.htm?utm_content=buffer928b5&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer

Edited July 22, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

They are talking about the northern sea route being clear by early Aug this year? Plenty of time for Ships Capt.s to watch the 'boiling oceans again as the travel through the east Siberian sea. Folk should check out the methane outputs around that region through May , June and July.......yet more records being broken.

[BornFromTheVoid]

June 27 snow and ice in Arctic.jpgNo puddles visible yet on the web cams planted near the north pole. Are the puddles appearing later than recent years, or am I just not remembering properly?

 

You may find the latest north pole cam images quite interesting

 

Lots of surface melt water about

 

 

We have to first main storm of the summer starting tonight. The ECM makes it a 48-72 hour event, mainly impacting the Chukchi, Beaufort, CAA and Central Arctic.

 

t24 .......................................................................... t48 ................................... ..................................t72

 

The storm is not as strong, and the ice is not as fragmented as the early August event last year, but the effects should still be interesting to watch.

 

Another area to keep an eye on the just east of the N. Pole. The region here that has had somewhat low concentration ice for a number of weeks, and is beginning to form open water regions on the extent and area images. This can be seen in Wipneus' great work on the sea ice forum.

Red pixels show concentration dropping below 15%, blue are going above 15%.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.200.html

Edited July 23, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd say that the main body of ice across the Central Arctic is far more fragmented than the approach to last summers GAC12 BFTV?

 

The ice is riddled with the impacts of both the Feb event and from the Persistent Arctic Cyclone13? Yesterdays image from the pole shows a mush with the odd floe embedded within it. Why is this important? Well the swells created by the cyclone will not be damped out by contiguous ice ( last year the swells did not reach through to the atlantic side of the pack) so the smaller ice rubble will be bobbed and tumbled by the wave action increasing melt across it's whole surface ( instead of just slowly rising and falling as swells pass underneath).

 

With winds expect above beaufort5 this may have a lasting impact on the seasons melt this year ( in the way we saw on the Beaufort side of the pack during last summers cyclone?).

Edited July 23, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd say that the main body of ice across the Central Arctic is far more fragmented than the approach to last summers GAC12 BFTV?

 

The ice is riddled with the impacts of both the Feb event and from the Persistent Arctic Cyclone13? Yesterdays image from the pole shows a mush with the odd floe embedded within it. Why is this important? Well the swells created by the cyclone will not be damped out by contiguous ice ( last year the swells did not reach through to the atlantic side of the pack) so the smaller ice rubble will be bobbed and tumbled by the wave action increasing melt across it's whole surface ( instead of just slowly rising and falling as swells pass underneath).

 

With winds expect above beaufort5 this may have a lasting impact on the seasons melt this year ( in the way we saw on the Beaufort side of the pack during last summers cyclone?).

 

I'd say that it isn't as bad GW. The region near the Laptev and around the pole is in poor condition, but that is not the main area to be affected by the storm. This storm will mainly be impacting the Beaufort, Chukchi and western central Arctic, which are in much better condition than GAC13 arrived last year.

 

While I'd expect to see some damage from this storm, the lasting impact, however, remains to be seen. Lets not forget that this is a more run of the mill type Arctic system, and is significantly weaker than the storm last August.

[4wd]

You may find the latest north pole cam images quite interesting

 

Lots of surface melt water about

 

 

 

 

Webcam #1 shows minimal surface melt though, in fact it looks rather like blowing snow running along the ground.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/webcam1.html

I wonder if the sudden water at cam #2  is actually an effect of wind rather than surface melt at the location.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Webcam #1 shows minimal surface melt though, in fact it looks rather like blowing snow running along the ground.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/webcam1.html

I wonder if the sudden water at cam #2  is actually an effect of wind rather than surface melt at the location.

 

I guess there could be a number of reasons.

There will be a lot of local variation, depending on snow depths and how fragmented the ice is. The large melt pooling in cam 2 could be due to the ice being more consolidated, so there is less opportunity for it to drain. On the other hand, it may have just been a bit sunnier and warmer there for a while.

[keithlucky]

Arctic propaganda in collapse 

A 15percent increase in ice volume over last year http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

[UV-RAY]

Arctic propaganda in collapse 

A 15percent increase in ice volume over last year http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

I think it's best not to posts comments like this Keith as your falling into the same trap as proponents of AGW and taking every minute detail as proof. I always thinks it's best to wait and see where we are come the end of the melt season, not many do on here granted!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic propaganda in collapse 

A 15percent increase in ice volume over last year http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

 

That doesn't show volume Keith, it's 30% extent.

Edited July 23, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Methuselah]

That doesn't show volume Keith, it's 30% extent.

I knew there was something wrong with that, Sam...But my enlarger missed the real legend, and only zoomed the phony one...It's a very common 'mistake', within certain circles...

[knocker]

I guess there could be a number of reasons.

There will be a lot of local variation, depending on snow depths and how fragmented the ice is. The large melt pooling in cam 2 could be due to the ice being more consolidated, so there is less opportunity for it to drain. On the other hand, it may have just been a bit sunnier and warmer there for a while.

 

Further to this some observations regarding methane.

 

http://arctic-news.blogspot.dk/2013/07/open-water-at-north-pole.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's where we currently stand with regard to previous CT sea ice area minima

 

 

We're below 8 previous minima, and within 1 million km2 of another 19.

Despite being just 4th lowest for the time of year, if we maintain the loss rate of the last 10 days, by July 31st we'll be lowest on record for the time of year and below 27 out of 34 previous minima.

[Geordiesnow]

Would like to note, it was around this time of year where the NSIDC and JAXA extents disagreed slightly where the 2012 line was. The NSIDC kept the extent below the 2007 for most of July whilst the JAXA ice extent had the 2012 extent above the 2007 line at this time of year so one would suggest we may not be as close to the 2012 extent as JAXA suggests. 

 

Not sure which one was accurate but I think JAXA was changing it satellites last year so I am more inclined to believe the NSIDC one. Although someone more knowledgeable may know more than I do. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some interesting goings on with the Arctic sea ice today.

 

First off, IJIS saw a drop of 70.4k, a little below average, while NSIDC saw an increase of 50.7k, which is very unusual.

CT area then, saw a drop of 174.4k, taking it below 5 million km2.

 

The variability in the extent appears to be down to the storm at the moment. Wipneus, over on the sea ice forum, does his own area and extent calculation, usually with the AMRS2 concentration data, but they're having some issue so he used the SSMIS data for yesterday. He got an extent increase of 41k and an area decrease of 51k, from the same concentration data. Most of the extent increases were around the Pacific side of the Arctic, where the storm has been the last 2 days. This indicates that the ice here has been getting melted and dispersed, but remaining above 15% concentration, thus an increase in extent but decrease in area. The difference between the IJIS extent and the NSIDC extent is a bit tougher to explain though, especially when it isn't clear whether IJIS use AMSR2 or Windsat data.

 

 

The loss in area is pretty interesting though. It means we only have to record a loss of 48k/day for the rest of the month for the largest July area loss on record. It also means that 2013 had the record fastest drop from >6 million km2 to <5 million km2, spending just 8 days in the 5 million km2 bracket, compared to 2012 (9 days), 2011 (13 days), and 2007 (12 days)

[Gray-Wolf]

apparently we have a new ice type to add to our cryospheric lexicon....." Decayed ice" is now being used by the Canadian ice service to describe our 'slush puppy ice' . Ask a Climate Misleader why we need new terms if this is not a brand new circumstance!

[be cause]

Call off the hysterical alarm !!! .. Cryosphere Today reports a rise .. repeat RISE ! in Arctic sea ice area of 7000 sq km  All is well to our north !!!

[Gray-Wolf]

Call off the hysterical alarm !!! .. Cryosphere Today reports a rise .. repeat RISE ! in Arctic sea ice area of 7000 sq km  All is well to our north !!!

 

LOL! Yup , all is hunky dorey!

 

I'm just wondering exactly what a minor mid summer storm like this one is capable of? I've noted that the 'well read' folk have now started to waver on their views of recovery and , dare I say it? , mentioned 'record losses' ??? We either have a feel for the 'New Arctic' or we are stuck looking at the pre- 2010 basin ( when we still entered summer with paleocryistic ice). Well out with the old ( Paleocryistic) and in with the new (  Decayed ice) I say!

 

So , we know how the paleocryistic ice dealt with summer storms ( spread out a bit) but what will it's replacement do under such conditions???

 

Let's watch for the next 5 days to find the answer.......

[Geordiesnow]

Let's watch for the next 5 days to find the answer.......

 

So you are expecting a large drop in extent to come then GW?

 

I stand by my prediction that this storm won't do much damage ice extent wise due to the positioning of this storm and for the fact its not as strong as last year. However the long term damage could be greater than last year with more thicker ice being dismantled(got to say the ice thicknesses charts look pretty bad). The storm also is now expected to fade much faster than when this storm was first being noticetable in the outputs and actually the current outlook weather wise in the Arctic at this moment in time looks reasonably good for ice retention once the storm passes and we head into the medium term.

 

The Danish 30% coverage seems to suggest quite an uptick in extent but this could be an error and tomorrows update may provide whether this is the case or not. Extent may currently be 4th lowest but on AVERAGE so far this year would probably match to 2008/09 extents, its not like we have been near the lowest on record and we only just trying to join onto the pack so this may suggest that there could be less of an albedo affect which may allow extent to hover around previous extent marks with the exception of 2012. Although the thin ice to the East of the North Pole could still play a role I feel and the ice line on the Atlantic side of the Arctic looks to be lowest ever on record(quite a fair distance away from the Svalbard islands) for this point in July so still a quite a fair way to go. 

 

Whatever happens, its going to be an very interesting last 4-6 weeks of the melt season and as I say in my previous posts, its been a very interesting melt season. 

[stewfox]

I see the North Pole 'lake on top of the world ' is being reported (to me surface melt water)

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2013/07/27/melting-polar-ice-cap-created-a-lake-on-top-of-the-world/

 

Note the article states

 

"Of course, the accelerated melting of ice at the poles produces a bigger problem: rising sea levels" 

 

I think the Sun summary is better although I am not sure where 'egg head' has to do with it ?

 

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5034249/SHOCKING-images-show-the-ice-cap-at-the-North-Pole-melting-away-and-turning-into-a-vast-lake.html

 

 

In my view even a better summary from Sky apart from high temperature comments for the artic ?

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1120670/north-pole-ice-melts-into-growing-lake

 

""""I have seen much more extensive ponding," James Morison, the NPEO's principal investigator told The Atlantic Wire.

"Because we use wide angle lenses the melt pond looks much bigger than it is."

This year's melting of the ice is not as bad as last year's, which was record-breaking.

The calmness of the scene is not set to stay for long because a summer cyclone with blasting winds that could lead to the destruction of around 800,000 square miles of ice is expected"""""""""

 

IJIS continues the 'slow down theme', the calm before the storm ?

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Edited July 27, 2013 by stewfox

[4wd]

I thought they'd not be able to resist mis-representing that image, the cam location just happened to be in a perfectly normal shallow melt pool.It must still be stable ice below since it hasn't even tilted.

[Methuselah]

I thought they'd not be able to resist mis-representing that image, the cam location just happened to be in a perfectly normal shallow melt pool.It must still be stable ice below since it hasn't even tilted.

Indeed, 4 - that is all I'm seeing, too...