Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[Devonian]

Keith said: Sorry Devonian for crossing over to the darkside but there was nothing extrodinary about this storm just go back in history,

 

I'd put it another way. Haiyan was extraordinary, but there have been extraordinary storms before. Looking at what news is coming out of the area I can't but describe what I see as extraordinary.

[Gray-Wolf]

How can folk compare Bangladesh to the Philippines Dev?

 

Do they have any knowledge, so as to compare, or not?

And whilst we're at it why has science spent so long developing ,and then putting up, satellites if they are the chocolate fireguards the misleaders say they are? I suppose all the other types of sats are just as useless and should never have been planned, developed and put into space either?

 

It is just a nasty little stunt to try and stop the impacts of this terrible storm from resounding around the hall in Warsaw (and helping highlight just how bad a future we face should we seek to listen to the misleaders).

 

The gods have given us all the nastiest of helping hands ( but then Shiva can hang that way) to help show the cost of listening to the nonsense some 'preach'.

 

 

EDIT:  .http://www.rtcc.org/2013/11/11/filipino-delegate-announces-hunger-strike-at-un-climate-talks-opening/?

 

I'm sure this is the type of thing the Wattsy's were trying to offset

Edited November 11, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

Perhaps we should listen to the Philippines lead negotiator in Warsaw.

 

“It’s time to stop this madness†– Philippines plea at UN climate talks -

 

Philippines lead negotiator Yeb Sano has just addressed the opening session of the UN climate summit in Warsaw – calling for urgent action to prevent a repeat of the devastating storm that hit parts of his country at the weekend. A full transcript of his speech is below. -

 

http://www.rtcc.org/2013/11/11/its-time-to-stop-this-madness-philippines-plea-at-un-climate-talks

Edited November 11, 2013 by knocker

[Devonian]

Perhaps we should listen to the Philippines lead negotiator in Warsaw.

 

“It’s time to stop this madness†– Philippines plea at UN climate talks -

 

Philippines lead negotiator Yeb Sano has just addressed the opening session of the UN climate summit in Warsaw – calling for urgent action to prevent a repeat of the devastating storm that hit parts of his country at the weekend. A full transcript of his speech is below. -

 

http://www.rtcc.org/2013/11/11/its-time-to-stop-this-madness-philippines-plea-at-un-climate-talks

 

Fwiw, I don't see how this storm, obviously, links to 'you know what'. SST's were not astronomic? It wasn't outside the possible just exceptional? The level of destruction was in line with what the very worst of a typhoon can do?

 

I do suspect the future will see higher SST's and more powerful tropical disturbances but not yet. Of course I realise by then it will be too late...Our dilemma I guess.

[knocker]

Sorry Devonian for crossing over to the darkside but there was nothing extrodinary about this storm just go back in history,

 

 

That's a novel idea. There can't be an extrodinary storm in the future because it's already happened.

[knocker]

Fwiw, I don't see how this storm, obviously, links to 'you know what'. SST's were not astronomic? It wasn't outside the possible just exceptional? The level of destruction was in line with what the very worst of a typhoon can do?

 

I do suspect the future will see higher SST's and more powerful tropical disturbances but not yet. Of course I realise by then it will be too late...Our dilemma I guess.

 

I don't know whether you have seen this Dev. I posted it in research. It's a translation as you can tell.

 

If you look more closely into the theory can be found, however, that there is less on the sea temperature reaches in as the temperature difference to the upper troposphere - it is the temperature gradient, from the storm draws its energy. Kerry Emanuel , the guru of tropical storm research from MIT , the increase of the strongest storms therefore leads back to two factors: global warming at the surface and the cooling of the upper atmosphere, which is mainly caused by ozone depletion.

 

 

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.scilogs.de/klimalounge/werden-tropenstuerme-schlimmer/&prev=/search%3Fq%3DWerden%2BTropenst%25C3%25BCrme%2Bschlimmer%253F%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3DoNX%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official

Edited November 11, 2013 by knocker

[Devonian]

I don't know whether you have seen this Dev. I posted it in research. It's a translation as you can tell.

 

 

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.scilogs.de/klimalounge/werden-tropenstuerme-schlimmer/&prev=/search%3Fq%3DWerden%2BTropenst%25C3%25BCrme%2Bschlimmer%253F%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3DoNX%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official

 

Using my usual policy of not knowing better than those who know better than me I'd agree with him. Perhaps I should have said 'I do suspect the future will see higher SST's and more powerful tropical disturbances but it's just not obvious yet'.

[knocker]

Another Record in the Western Pacific: Australia

Another indicator of how warm the western Pacific region is lately: Australia has seen its warmest 12 months on record.

 

 

 

http://davidappell.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/another-record-in-western-pacific.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

Why Was Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda So Powerful, and is this a trend?

 

I’m sure the measurements are still being checked and adjusted but it is clear that Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda was one of the most powerful tropical cyclones (termed “Typhoon†in the western Pacific) ever recorded. There are several ways to measure how big and bad a tropical cyclone is including it’s overall size from end to end, how low the barometric pressure gets, how high the sustained wind speed is, and how wide that wind field is. In addition, when a typhoon hits land details matter. The front right quadrant of a counter-clockwise spinning typhoon packs the maximum punch and if that part of the storm enters an embayment during high tide the storm surge can be immense. It seems that the storm surge for Haiyan/Yolanda was in the many tens of feet range, and quite possibly will be found responsible for the largest part of the still uncalculated death toll.

 

Edited November 12, 2013 by knocker

[VillagePlank]

Sigh. It endlessly amazes me that I spend the time and effort explaining how we *expect* storms like this from time to time and no one appears to even read it.

 

That one extreme side says it's not extraordinary and the other side says it's armageddon incarnate is neither here nor there. The loss of at least 10,000 people, in my view, should be enough to put the petty squabbling aside, if, at least, for only a day or so. I guess the loss of life really doesn't count when we can pontificate over whether the sustatined wind speed was a record breaker or not.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Sparkicle

[VillagePlank]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/10/australia-warmest-ever-calendar-year?

 

Good job we're on a cool down eh?

 

First of all - who said we're on a cool-down? Quotes, please: otherwise retract this nonsense.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Apologies for deviating slightly from the current tragedy, but all this (A)GW tennis gets very confusing at times, (and to be honest at times like this a little distasteful - tragedy shouldn't be used to support arguments), but people's personal viewpoints often get completely lost. As I see it there are a couple of common positions being taken:

 

1. [*]the world isn't warming - so nothing to worry about [*]the world was warming, but now it's stopped - so nothing to worry about [*]the world is in a warming phase, but it's natural cycles, nothing to do with human activity - no point worrying, we can't change it [*]the world is in a natural warming phase, exacerbated by human activity - we may be able to have some influence, but only fairly limited [*]the world is warming, and human activity is the main reason - we can significantly affect the eventual outcome, but it requires a major global change to human behaviour
   

Personally I'm probably closest to 5, but this is influenced by an acceptance that the evidence is not absolutely proven, however if we do nothing and then history shows that it was in fact 5 all along, we (the human race) will have been guilty of terrible arrogance, and by then it'll be too late i.e. better to act now just in case - even if that means making changes which will materially affect the perceived standard of living of the richest societies, (after all, the types of action generally suggested would likely have the biggest impact on developed or rapidly developing nations).

 

So I'd appreciate if people could declare their personal standpoint, either referring to the ones above, or stating their own. I'd find it very useful to understand a person's position behind all the day to day exchanges.

[knocker]

Sigh. It endlessly amazes me that I spend the time and effort explaining how we *expect* storms like this from time to time and no one appears to even read it.

 

That one extreme side says it's not extraordinary and the other side says it's armageddon incarnate is neither here nor there. The loss of at least 10,000 people, in my view, should be enough to put the petty squabbling aside, if, at least, for only a day or so. I guess the loss of life really doesn't count when we can pontificate over whether the sustatined wind speed was a record breaker or not.

 

I think that a tad unfair. I did post this.

 

You are missing the point Keith. What Watts and Homewood are doing is classic' bulverism'. By that I mean they are presenting an argument that avoids the need to prove that some people are wrong by first assuming their claim is wrong and then explaining why the person, or people, could hold such a fallacious view.

 

As far as I'm aware no serious scientist has stated this is the result of AGW as most normal people are more concerned about the human tragedy that is unfolding  Except Anthony Watts and his crew who are trying to pretend this monster storm didn’t happen, and instead, that it was a run of the mill typhoon. It sure isn't that. I'm afraid I find it completely distasteful and insensitive.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

First of all - who said we're on a cool-down? Quotes, please: otherwise retract this nonsense.

 

C'mon sparks! we even have a dedicated thread to the alleged 'pause' in warming of which some folk point to the data from 2010 to present as a period of 'cooling'. The impacts, over the past 12 months, of temps across Australia appear to show that some regions of the globe are far from stable/cooling? Through the southern winter we kept having posts reporting cold from areas of S. America but this seems more than balanced by the Australian constant heat?

 

It is starting to appear ( to me) that the Southern hemisphere is now also beginning to suffer from jet trough/ridge issues as we in the northern hemisphere have been? If the pattern of extremes that we have been suffering have now crossed the equator and into the southern hemisphere then I have concerns about the way such exaggerated patterns will impact Antarctica? Should we see similar patterns to our hemisphere then we should expect warm air advection into the southern continent? Even without a healed Ozone hole this pattern may prove enough to overcome the circumpolar's strength and bring to an end the 'splendid isolation' that Antarctica has enjoyed for over 20yrs?

[knocker]

Shock and awe.

 

Latest denier conspiracy theory: European Space Agency killed satellite because they didn't like data

 

Shock News : Satellite Showed Little Sea Level Rise Before They Tampered With The Data

[VillagePlank]

C'mon sparks! we even have a dedicated thread to the alleged 'pause' in warming of which some folk point to the data from 2010 to present as a period of 'cooling'. The impacts, over the past 12 months, of temps across Australia appear to show that some regions of the globe are far from stable/cooling? Through the southern winter we kept having posts reporting cold from areas of S. America but this seems more than balanced by the Australian constant heat?

 

OK, well the CET is *falling* and it is been for a number of years. Does anyone - and I mean *anyone* - use this as evidence of global cooling? Nope. Didn't think so. Vice versa etc etc.

[VillagePlank]

C'mon sparks! we even have a dedicated thread to the alleged 'pause' in warming of which some folk point to the data from 2010 to present as a period of 'cooling'. The impacts, over the past 12 months, of temps across Australia appear to show that some regions of the globe are far from stable/cooling? Through the southern winter we kept having posts reporting cold from areas of S. America but this seems more than balanced by the Australian constant heat?

 

Yes, and some people pray to Zeus, and think plastic Gnomes at the end of the garden come alive at night. What does this have to do with any serious consideration of the science? You can't, or rather you shouldn't, base your stance on some idiotic fringe group.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Devonian]

Apologies for deviating slightly from the current tragedy, but all this (A)GW tennis gets very confusing at times, (and to be honest at times like this a little distasteful - tragedy shouldn't be used to support arguments), but people's personal viewpoints often get completely lost. As I see it there are a couple of common positions being taken:

 

[*]the world isn't warming - so nothing to worry about

[*]the world was warming, but now it's stopped - so nothing to worry about

[*]the world is in a warming phase, but it's natural cycles, nothing to do with human activity - no point worrying, we can't change it

[*]the world is in a natural warming phase, exacerbated by human activity - we may be able to have some influence, but only fairly limited

[*]the world is warming, and human activity is the main reason - we can significantly affect the eventual outcome, but it requires a major global change to human behaviour

Personally I'm probably closest to 5, but this is influenced by an acceptance that the evidence is not absolutely proven, however if we do nothing and then history shows that it was in fact 5 all along, we (the human race) will have been guilty of terrible arrogance, and by then it'll be too late i.e. better to act now just in case - even if that means making changes which will materially affect the perceived standard of living of the richest societies, (after all, the types of action generally suggested would likely have the biggest impact on developed or rapidly developing nations).

 

So I'd appreciate if people could declare their personal standpoint, either referring to the ones above, or stating their own. I'd find it very useful to understand a person's position behind all the day to day exchanges.

 

5b, the underlying trend is strong warming...human activity is most likely the main reason...requires a major global change to human behaviour, which atm looks unlikely.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Devonian

[4wd]

How can folk compare Bangladesh to the Philippines Dev?

 

Do they have any knowledge, so as to compare, or not?

And whilst we're at it why has science spent so long developing ,and then putting up, satellites if they are the chocolate fireguards the misleaders say they are? I suppose all the other types of sats are just as useless and should never have been planned, developed and put into space either?

 

It is just a nasty little stunt to try and stop the impacts of this terrible storm from resounding around the hall in Warsaw (and helping highlight just how bad a future we face should we seek to listen to the misleaders).

 

The gods have given us all the nastiest of helping hands ( but then Shiva can hang that way) to help show the cost of listening to the nonsense some 'preach'.

 

 

EDIT:  .http://www.rtcc.org/2013/11/11/filipino-delegate-announces-hunger-strike-at-un-climate-talks-opening/?

 

I'm sure this is the type of thing the Wattsy's were trying to offset

How does the Philippines Typhoon look compared to this list from Wunderground?I can hardly believe the nasty points scoring going on around this subject in here.It was a major Typhoon, it was not caused by Global Warming nor in any meaningful way made worse by warming.Trying  to somehow blame 'misleaders' for a deadly storm is frankly disgusting - but to be fair I've see far worse on the usual hate blogs and you are merely parroting a somewhat distilled version here.http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadlyworld.asp?MR=1

[knocker]

5b, the underlying trend is strong warming...human activity is most likely the main reason...requires a major global change to human behaviour, which atm looks unlikely.

 

I'll go along with that as well.

[knocker]

U of Alabama at Huntsville lower tropospheric temperature trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade

 

http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

[Devonian]

How does the Philippines Typhoon look compared to this list from Wunderground?I can hardly believe the nasty points scoring going on around this subject in here.It was a major Typhoon, it was not caused by Global Warming nor in any meaningful way made worse by warming.Trying  to somehow blame 'misleaders' for a deadly storm is frankly disgusting - but to be fair I've see far worse on the usual hate blogs and you are merely parroting a somewhat distilled version here.http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadlyworld.asp?MR=1

'Hate blogs'? Do you read that foul mouthed idiot Stevegoddard?

[UV-RAY]

'Hate blogs'? Do you read that foul mouthed idiot Stevegoddard?

Blinkers on Dev, I see what I only what to see!

[Devonian]

Blinkers on Dev, I see what I only what to see!

SI, because I try not to be blinkered I read Goddard, just (I'm sure) like you read RealClimate. Frankly Stevegoddard is one of the most foulmouthed, disrespectful climate boggers I've ever had the misfortune to come across. I challenge anyone to read his output for a few days and not be shocked by the language, disrespect and tone. Go on, quote us his 'best' post of recent days.

Edited November 12, 2013 by Devonian

[knocker]

It was a major Typhoon, it was not caused by Global Warming nor in any meaningful way made worse by warming. 

 

Can you name anyone on here who actually stated that the storm was caused or even enhanced by Global Warming. I certainly didn't and actually said that the priority was the human tragedy unfolding and that we shouldn't stoop to the level of Watts and Goddard who managed to reach an all time low with their callous disregard of the truth. I'm surprised, or am I, that they have followers on here as most of their acolytes are right wing fruitcakes.