East Pacific Invest Thread 2013

[Somerset Squall]

96E became Hurricane Dalila.

 

Yup, 97E looking more impressive now, up to 70% from NHC. Good chance of another cane I fancy, the fourth in a row if it does achieve that status.

[summer blizzard]

Most GFS ensembles take 97E on the same path as the other two..

 

 

Strength predictions are pretty bearish though, barely making it a hurricane.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like TD5 to me...

 

[Somerset Squall]

97E became Hurricane Erick.

 

After a lull in activity, we have invest 98E churning away in the east of the basin, south of the coast of Mexico. Convection is gradually building and is showing signs of rotation. Conditions look favourable for 98E as it moves to the west-northwest, and I think the NHC's forecast of a 20% risk of TC development in the next 48hrs is a little conservative.

[Somerset Squall]

98E has been slow to organise as it continues to head westwards further out to sea (now at roughly 120W), but seems to be getting it's act together now. Convection is blossoming over the LLCC, and the system has developed some impressive banding features this evening. NHC give a 80% chance of TC development in the next 48hrs. If current trends persist, I see 98E being upgraded very soon.

[summer blizzard]

Lemon in the east pacific.

[Somerset Squall]

98E became Tropical Storm Flossie.

 

Invest 99E formed and has become Tropical Storm Gil.

 

Invest 90E has formed east of TS Gil. The disturbance appears to be organising rapidly, and NHC have given a 40% chance of TC development in the next 48hrs. It'll be interesting to see if it does form and how potentially it could interact with TS Gil as the two systems are pretty close to one another. Interesting to note yet another disturbed area well east of invest 90E, though NHC aren't mentioning this area yet.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has not been persistant with 90E today. NHC upped it's chances of forming into a TC to 60% but has since dropped it back down to 40%. Convection diminished completely this afternoon but it has since made a comeback. However, the convection is poorly organised, and the invest overall does not look as good as it did yesterday, and this could be in part due to the proximity of Hurricane Gil to the west. Still worth watching however, as the LLCC remains well defined.

[Somerset Squall]

90E became Hurricane Henriette.

 

We now have a couple invests in the Central Pacific, and one is looking like it may become the first TC to form in the Central Pacific basin this year (3 have moved into the basin, but didn't form there (Flossie, Gil and Henriette)). Invest 90C, located directly south of Hawaii, is organising very nicely with deep convection exploding over the well defined LLCC. CPHC give a 80% chance of TC formation over the next 48hrs as shear is low and waters warm. We also have invest 91C to the west of 90C. CPHC only give a 20% chance of development but this one is showing some signs of organisation too with convection slowly increasing over the broad LLCC.

Edited August 15, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

Interesting. Perhaps Japan should be on alert down the line.

 

[mezzacyclone]

"low shear" and "warm sst`s" in the Central Pacific? never been so Interesting, personally speaking anyway as this surely is against the norm?

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 90C has been sheared overnight, and this is probably due to the outflow of 91C to the west, which itself has grown better organised. 90C has a well defined LLC, but the shear has exposed it to view from the convection. 90C's chances have been decreased to 60%, but 91C's chances have been upped to 80%.

Edited August 16, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

"low shear" and "warm sst`s" in the Central Pacific? never been so Interesting, personally speaking anyway as this surely is against the norm?

It's more common in El Nino years that produced the beasts Major Hurricane Ioke in 2006 (this storm got me interested in hurricanes) and Major Hurricane Neki in 2009. But yeah it seems that there is an area of favourable conditions in the Central Pacific at the moment!

[summer blizzard]

90C down to 20% however it does look very good. I'd suggest it just needs a little more space to allow the low level center to close off.

 

[Somerset Squall]

90C became TS Unala and crossed into the West Pacific basin.

 

91C became Tropical Storm Pewa, crossed into the West Pacific basin and is now Typhoon Pewa.

 

We now have invest 92C, which I believe is the same system as 92E which has slowly tracked across the Central Pacific basin without development, until now. The disturbance has a small area of convection over a possible LLCC which appears to be forming as evidenced by some turning in the convection. CPHC give the system a 30% chance of TC formation, though I think this is a little conservative.

 

Also further east we have a disturbance taking shape in the Central Pacific which has been given a 20% chance of TC development by CPHC. Shear is currently high over the system but it is forecast to weaken which could allow development.

 

I find this amount of activity in the Central Pacific basin to be astonishing. If these two systems develop (and there is a good chance they will), we would have had 4 named storms in a month in this basin. I may be jumping the gun here but 2 named storms so close is remarkable enough. To put this into perspective- the last named storm to form in this basin was Omeka in 2010 (2011 and 2012 had one or two decaying systems move in from the East Pacific which is more common, but they didn't form there)!

 

On to the East Pacific (which has been very quiet since Henriette at the beginning of the month), we have invest 94E located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. The invest is currently not very well organised, with messy convection showing signs of broad rotation. However, shear is low and waters are warm, and models are keen on development. NHC give a 20% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs and 80% chance in 5 days.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

The invest is now at 40% for the next 48 hours and 80% within 5 days.

[Somerset Squall]

94E became TS Ivo.

 

We now have invest 95E taking shape south of the Gulf Of Tehuantepec. The invest has spawned on the southern half of a tropical wave that moved across the Caribbean this week (the northern half of the wave has become TD6 in the Atlantic). 95E's convection is showing some curvature and organisation, and NHC give a 40% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs (I suspect these chances will rise next update) and 80% in the next 5 days.

Edited August 25, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

95E is a good looking cherry. 

 

Not closed yet though.

 

[summer blizzard]

Cherry in the East Pacific.

 

Likely TS headed for Baja.

[crikey]

Surprised no one is talking about this one. Am l in the correct thread..?

 

ACCESS G has this tropical storm developing into a significant system  passing east  Japan?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=windbarb&level=gradient&tz=AEDT&area=G&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

 

then moving north east and strengthens into a monster!! mid latitude system  in the northern latitudes by the 17th sept 2013

ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)

 

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

 

[Konstantinos]

92 Ε, 10% - 40 %


 

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..1. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN ANDSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM IN THISAREA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOTEXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATERTHIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVERPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

[Vorticity0123]

New invest (96E) active in the EPAC, with a decent chance to develop. The area is currently disorganized, with a fair amount of convection near the center, but no clear low level circulation apparent:

 

 

 

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THIS LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

 

Current models forecast a wobbly and slow track toward the northeast:

 

 

Last few runs, the GFS intensified this system into a hurricane, though the last run seems to have backed off in developing this system. Above picture shows this could be caused by wrong initialization, given the erroneous GFS track (red) seen in above picture.

 

 

Pressure chart of the GFS 00z run at T132 shows 96E being close to a hurricane.

 

The EC also develops this system into a strong TS.

 

Shear is currently low over the system (about 10 knots), while the vorticity at the different heigts still seems to be somewhat elongated and poorly defined. There is also abundant moisture near the system.

 

Concluding, there seems to be enough model support for 96E to develop into a potent TC, but it will likely take a while before this system has become a TD. So it will most likely take some time before the fate of this system becomes more clear.

 

Sources:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

http://dutch.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep201396_model.html?MR=1

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Edited October 19, 2013 by Vorticity0123

[Vorticity0123]

Seemingly this system is developing quicker than I expected, up to 80% now.

 

 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDREDMILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND ATROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY WHILE THISLOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGHCHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THESOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THISDISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...IS POSSIBLE OVERSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Somerset Squall]

I wonder if this one will achieve major hurricane status? Still no major hurricane for this season, which is unusual. A late season surprise perhaps? It'll be interesting to see. Mexico certainly looks in for a drenching over the next few days though.

[Vorticity0123]

I wonder if this one will achieve major hurricane status? Still no major hurricane for this season, which is unusual. A late season surprise perhaps? It'll be interesting to see. Mexico certainly looks in for a drenching over the next few days though.

 

It is indeed very unusual to see both the Epac and the Atlantic producing no major hurricane in a hurricane season.

Mexico has been very unlucky with tropical cyclones, being hit multiple times from both the atlantic and east pacific. They really don't want another cyclone.

Unfortunately, models have been trending more toward a Mexican landfall...

 

 

Last loop shows some curvature within 96E, so I guess it won't be long before this becomes the next depression of the season.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96E/flash-vis-short.html

Edited October 19, 2013 by Vorticity0123