Chase Day 20 - Discussion Slight risk CO,NB,KS,OK + many others

[nsrobins]

A wide-scale slight risk today from a number of areas of potential severe weather. The two areas of interest for the NW team are the OFB play in E KS and the DL in far W KS/CO line.
Personally I like the E KS area for much better shear, and the 07Z RAP pushes a pronounced DL bulge well into the heart of KS by 21Z which may assist initiation.
I assume you might have to consider team changeovers but Weds may be a biggish day too.
 

[chionomaniac]

Just looking at a variety of outputs Neil and I would agree with you. Looks like we will see a stronger pulse of jet energy across eastern Kansas from around 18Z before it fades. With the CAPE highest in this region and dewpoints favourable any storms that do kick off will have a good as chance as any for a tornado - though risk is less than last night.

 

My chase target tonight is Junction City KS, though any where in that NE/E KS region is reasonable.

[nsrobins]

Interesting how each subsequent run has increased the risk in NC and NE KS this afternoon.
We have stupid EHI and SRHs are up to 350 in the Salina/Concordia/Junction City an dpoints east zone.

Taking a punt of a slight westward adjustment and the nose of the DL bulge, overlayed by a decent 700mb SW flow, I'm going west of Chiono's target and will be having a lazy lunch in Salina, KS.

[dallas]

I see the SPC has a severe risk for Fri 31st, dont see too many of them do we?

[Arron]

We're on the road and with tomorrows risk in mind and changeover day on Thursday, we're heading to Greensburg for lunch. Retreating low pressure should enhance moisture and back winds down this area and already there's a nice clearing down there. No doubt it'll change by the time we get there!

[nsrobins]

The clearance should continue to nose into C KS and then C N & NE KS coincident with the current and modelled DL bulge beneath the surface low over W KS now.
I see the potential for cells in S C KS agreed but for maximised shear I'd still be snoozing in Salina ready for the off.

[chionomaniac]

We're on the road and with tomorrows risk in mind and changeover day on Thursday, we're heading to Greensburg for lunch. Retreating low pressure should enhance moisture and back winds down this area and already there's a nice clearing down there. No doubt it'll change by the time we get there!

 

Talking of which - anyone noticed this update - up to moderate now.

 

 

FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG/EAST OF

   THE DRYLINE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE

   EVENT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...POSSIBLY

   STRONG...MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY2

   PERIOD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[chionomaniac]

MD issued for E-CNTRL/ERN KS....NE MO...SRN IA...FAR SW NEB for significant hail and a few tornados

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0837.html

 

 

A bit too east for the team - but early days yet - however, team may like the 4kmNAM forecast for 00Z:

 

[samadamsuk]

cell over the ok panhandle, in Beaver county - about 60 miles sw of the team

[Arron]

Just finished lunch in Greensburg and now heading south to have a look at the cell that's gone up in the OK panhandle

[matty40s]

looks very interesting if thats the cell in the view from the camera...

[chionomaniac]

Wonderful stream at the mo.

[Arron]

Not too many chasers down here Got the bandwidth all to ourselves at the moment There was quite a few posts on facebook last night about streaming issues, seems the cell towers getting overloaded are not helping.

[Arron]

Damn caught in a traffic jam, tornado on the ground too grrrrrrrrrrr

[matty40s]

not sure who is editing the stream page, but the linky directs you to day 16.

 

Nice hook forming on the cell north of mitchell now - josh alessi right on it

 

big rotation - here she comes

 

on the ground - great footage

[chionomaniac]

Yes, it looks like this cell has spent the last 15 mins reorganising and is looking promising for dropping another tube. (Forgan cell)

 

Also cell in NE KS T warned now

[DubWeatherAddict]

BOOOOOBIES!!!!

[chionomaniac]

Also Tom Stolz right with you on the same stretch of road

[Paul Churchley]

My other half tried to get live streaming on her iPad but it just hangs... it is fine on my Windows laptop... any ideas?

[nsrobins]

Just got in. The cell you are on has a very decent signature. Perhaps south on the 183 to get a better view.

[chionomaniac]

Neil - have you seen the couplet on the NE KS cell - a large tornado on the ground with that one nr Corning. And not a chaser in sight!

[nsrobins]

Neil - seen the couplet on the NE KS cell - a large tornado on the ground with that one nr Corning. And not a chaser in sight!

Indeed. I think we'd of been on it but the virtual world lends itself to hindsight LOL.

The team have an opportunity where they are ATM.

[chionomaniac]

Those in Goff need to take cover. This is looking like Carney and Moore sigs.

[chionomaniac]

Indeed. I think we'd of been on it but the virtual world lends itself to hindsight LOL.

The team have an opportunity where they are ATM.

Agreed. The OK storm the team are on was the first to drop a tube tonight.

[samadamsuk]

That is ferocious - what a storm up in Ne KS!