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Chase Day 20 - Discussion Slight risk CO,NB,KS,OK + many others


nsrobins

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

A wide-scale slight risk today from a number of areas of potential severe weather. The two areas of interest for the NW team are the OFB play in E KS and the DL in far W KS/CO line.
Personally I like the E KS area for much better shear, and the 07Z RAP pushes a pronounced DL bulge well into the heart of KS by 21Z which may assist initiation.
I assume you might have to consider team changeovers but Weds may be a biggish day too.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Just looking at a variety of outputs Neil and I would agree with you. Looks like we will see a stronger pulse of jet energy across eastern Kansas from around 18Z before it fades. With the CAPE highest in this region and dewpoints favourable any storms that do kick off will have a good as chance as any for a tornado - though risk is less than last night.

 

My chase target tonight is Junction City KS, though any where in that NE/E KS region is reasonable.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Interesting how each subsequent run has increased the risk in NC and NE KS this afternoon.
We have stupid EHI and SRHs are up to 350 in the Salina/Concordia/Junction City an dpoints east zone.

Taking a punt of a slight westward adjustment and the nose of the DL bulge, overlayed by a decent 700mb SW flow, I'm going west of Chiono's target and will be having a lazy lunch in Salina, KS.

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Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

I see the SPC has a severe risk for Fri 31st, dont see too many of them do we?

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

We're on the road and with tomorrows risk in mind and changeover day on Thursday, we're heading to Greensburg for lunch. Retreating low pressure should enhance moisture and back winds down this area and already there's a nice clearing down there. No doubt it'll change by the time we get there!

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

The clearance should continue to nose into C KS and then C N & NE KS coincident with the current and modelled DL bulge beneath the surface low over W KS now.
I see the potential for cells in S C KS agreed but for maximised shear I'd still be snoozing in Salina ready for the off.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

We're on the road and with tomorrows risk in mind and changeover day on Thursday, we're heading to Greensburg for lunch. Retreating low pressure should enhance moisture and back winds down this area and already there's a nice clearing down there. No doubt it'll change by the time we get there!

 

Talking of which - anyone noticed this update - up to moderate now.

 

post-4523-0-86906200-1369766954_thumb.gi

 

FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG/EAST OF
   THE DRYLINE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   EVENT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
   STRONG...MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY2
   PERIOD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

MD issued for E-CNTRL/ERN KS....NE MO...SRN IA...FAR SW NEB for significant hail and a few tornados

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0837.html

 

 

A bit too east for the team - but early days yet - however, team may like the 4kmNAM forecast for 00Z:

 

post-4523-0-36162300-1369768175_thumb.gi

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Just finished lunch in Greensburg and now heading south to have a look at the cell that's gone up in the OK panhandle :D

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

looks very interesting if thats the cell in the view from the camera...

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Wonderful stream at the mo.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Not too many chasers down here :D Got the bandwidth all to ourselves at the moment :D There was quite a few posts on facebook last night about streaming issues, seems the cell towers getting overloaded are not helping.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Damn caught in a traffic jam, tornado on the ground too grrrrrrrrrrr

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

not sure who is editing the stream page, but the linky directs you to day 16.

 

Nice hook forming on the cell north of mitchell now - josh alessi right on it

 

big rotation - here she comes

 

on the ground - great footage

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Yes, it looks like this cell has spent the last 15 mins reorganising and is looking promising for dropping another tube. (Forgan cell)

 

Also cell in NE KS T warned now

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Also Tom Stolz right with you on the same stretch of road

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Just got in. The cell you are on has a very decent signature. Perhaps south on the 183 to get a better view.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Neil - have you seen the couplet on the NE KS cell - a large tornado on the ground with that one nr Corning. And not a chaser in sight!

Edited by chionomaniac
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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Neil - seen the couplet on the NE KS cell - a large tornado on the ground with that one nr Corning. And not a chaser in sight!

Indeed. I think we'd of been on it but the virtual world lends itself to hindsight LOL.

The team have an opportunity where they are ATM.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Those in Goff need to take cover. This is looking like Carney and Moore sigs.

post-4523-0-03782500-1369776367_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Indeed. I think we'd of been on it but the virtual world lends itself to hindsight LOL.

The team have an opportunity where they are ATM.

Agreed. The OK storm the team are on was the first to drop a tube tonight.

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