Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[SMU]

I don't know what were actually talking about -

to be honest im not deep analysing every run chart by chart- 

 

The 12z ECM looked cold & miserable & the 00z ECM is roughly the same- It may be slightly warmer @ 850 than the12z but I didn't really look.

 

Any day in mid sept where you see the 0c isotherm over England is some 7/8 degrees below the norm- so if it turns out that we get the 2c isotherm then that's still some 5/6 degrees below the norm.

 

Looking at the wider picture the summer heat is already being surpressed into Spain & across the southern portion of Europe, the ECM paints a very distinct uniform southerly shift south in the polar cell across Europe- which is very unusual-

 

It does not preclude more warm spells in October or even late sept, but within the 3-10 day timeframe unseasonable chill for Europe is the guidance.,...

 

S

Edited September 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Frosty.]

I don't know what were actually talking about -

to be honest im not deep analysing every run chart by chart- 

 

The 12z ECM looked cold & miserable & the 00z ECM is roughly the same- It may be slightly warmer @ 850 than the12z but I didn't really look.

 

Any day in mid sept where you see the 0c isotherm over England is some 7/8 degrees below the norm- so if it turns out that we get the 2c isotherm then that's still some 5/6 degrees below the norm.

 

Looking at the wider picture the summer heat is already being surpressed into Spain & across the southern portion of Europe, the ECM paints a very distinct uniform southerly shift south in the polar cell across Europe- which is very unusual-

 

It does preclude more warm spells in October or even late sept, but within the 3-10 day timeframe unseasonable chill for Europe is the guidance.,...

 

S

Fair enough, I hope we have a bitterly cold winter but the Ecm 00z has changed somewhat compared to the 12z last night, that was my point..i'm still hoping for another warm spell before autumn really kicks in.

[DAVID SNOW]

Although i'm a coldie, I just can't get excited about cold synoptics in september, it's still much too early for anything to come of it apart from across the scottish mountain summits, so if there is a run like the Ecm 12z last night in late october, then I will be very interested, however, it looks like the pattern shown on the ecm 12z was a one off and the longer term trend remains for a settled and warmer spell for around the last week of september..and maybe first week of october?

 

 

 I can understand peoples opinion of September some have said its their least favourite month, summer is a memory now and as you say winter seems a long way off but we do have some interesting weather approaching, the low forecast to crash into the north looks like it will be a deep one and will certainly blow the cobwebs away and with some squally showers thrown in too

So for me September holds plenty of interest,not least the autumn mists and the turning of the leaves and even a settled spell(not 2011)at the end

[Frosty.]

The ECM 00z ensemble mean shows a slow improvement taking place from later next week as a weak atlantic ridge begins to push across the uk once the deeper cool pool of unsettled weather pushes away into mainland europe, from then on, the azores/atlantic anticyclone slowly gains more momentum and beyond T+240 hours would continue to show the trend towards a relatively warmer and more settled further outlook that the met office have been describing for many days now.

[MR EXTREMES]

if anything I do not agree with steve m in that this autumn will see anything exceptional in regards to heat, but I do agree with the 2c isotherm that's pretty good cool down so early into autumn.

 

I don't have a crystal ball but the models are certainly pushing back the azores theory now which im hoping will continue within early autumn and I do feel this will continue as the hurricaine season is now starting to ramp up and the swift change from summer to autumn is already showing good signs on the model outputs. 

[MR EXTREMES]

The ECM 00z ensemble mean shows a slow improvement taking place from later next week as a weak atlantic ridge begins to push across the uk once the deeper cool pool of unsettled weather pushes away into mainland europe, from then on, the azores/atlantic anticyclone slowly gains more momentum and beyond T+240 hours would continue to show the trend towards a relatively warmer and more settled further outlook that the met office have been describing for many days now.

to be fair frosty this is along way out but is being shown but already the flip flops are taking place across the board with the models don't you just love change lol

 

and the 6z gfs don't look like a indain summer either

everything is going south for winter now and double low will aid this futher.

Edited September 12, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[MR EXTREMES]

Greenland heights already surely not

as you can see though slight scandi ridge don't help with the low pressure system I has no where to go except southeast with more activity coming out of the northern states into the north alantic. all change if you take this run into account within a good time frame.

Edited September 12, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh well hope all those autumn lovers enjoy this autumnal weather. Feel free to show us your videos of you dancing in the wind and rain,

Just a note if you spend all your time indoors during this spell, your autumn preferences are immediately invalidated 

 

What a load of cack, I mean the worst thing is we have a low close to Scandinavia are we can't even get the winds to veer round to the north to get some proper north sea convection. Not one run from any model over the past 24 hours has produced a northerly, What an absolute joke!

Edited September 12, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[MR EXTREMES]

Oh well hope all those autumn lovers enjoy this autumnal weather. Feel free to show us your videos of you dancing in the wind and rain,

Just a note if you spend all your time indoors during this spell, your autumn preferences are immediately invalidated 

 

What a load of cack, I mean the worst thing is we have a low close to Scandinavia are we can't even get the winds to veer round to the north to get some proper north sea convection. Not one run from any model over the past 24 hours has produced a northerly, What an absolute joke!

no far of though fella of coarse there be changes and a 2c isotherm if it happens will be a lil taster I expect for some on the mountain tops its a start though.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Oh well hope all those autumn lovers enjoy this autumnal weather. Feel free to show us your videos of you dancing in the wind and rain,

Just a note if you spend all your time indoors during this spell, your autumn preferences are immediately invalidated 

 

What a load of cack, I mean the worst thing is we have a low close to Scandinavia are we can't even get the winds to veer round to the north to get some proper north sea convection. Not one run from any model over the past 24 hours has produced a northerly, What an absolute joke!

 

 

Im sure Summer sun will have some HP charts stored away that you can look at

[Captain Shortwave]

 

*facedesk*

Rain, rain and more rain, no showers just rain, and cold. Might hibernate until icicles start to grow on my nose 

I like winter cold and snow by the way and will be ramping beastly easterlies like everyone else. I just hate autumn and it's persistent gloomy, wet, breezy and cool weather.

Edited September 12, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Yarmy]

 

*facedesk*

Rain, rain and more rain, no showers just rain, and cold. Might hibernate until icicles start to grow on my nose 

I like winter cold and snow by the way and will be ramping beastly easterlies like everyone else. I just hate autumn and it's persistent gloomy, wet, breezy and cool weather.

 

Is that Humberto there sucking all the juice out of the AZH to clear the way for another low to come our way?

[MR EXTREMES]

Is that Humberto there sucking all the juice out of the AZH to clear the way for another low to come our way?

 

 

 

*facedesk*

Rain, rain and more rain, no showers just rain, and cold. Might hibernate until icicles start to grow on my nose 

I like winter cold and snow by the way and will be ramping beastly easterlies like everyone else. I just hate autumn and it's persistent gloomy, wet, breezy and cool weather.

its agood start captain and yeah that looks like a nice little storm down there and the north alantic is alive bigtime rather have it all now than through the winter months.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is now starting to increase high pressure over Greenland hence the more unsettled weather shown over the UK from GFS

 

 

 

The met office now have warnings out for the strong winds this cover all of Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and Northumberland all other areas are in the clear currently

[MR EXTREMES]

GFS is now starting to increase high pressure over Greenland hence the more unsettled weather shown over the UK from GFS

 

 

 

The met office now have warnings out for the strong winds this cover all of Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and Northumberland all other areas are in the clear currently

intresting to see so much northern latitude blocking and I read something yesterday might need to find the post again but there was mention that Iceland would be a favoured area for northern blocking.

 

although as captain said its far to soon in the season for anything to exciting in regards to cold,but 2009/10 had this type of setup early to and stuck around for a longtime.

 

still its what makes model watching intresting but its only one run and one day lets see how it progresses.

[MR EXTREMES]

intresting to see so much northern latitude blocking and I read something yesterday might need to find the post again but there was mention that Iceland would be a favoured area for northern blocking.

 

although as captain said its far to soon in the season for anything to exciting in regards to cold,but 2009/10 had this type of setup early to and stuck around for a longtime.

 

still its what makes model watching intresting but its only one run and one day lets see how it progresses.

 

but from what I can see from the models across the board its very very lively weather now.

[summer blizzard]

Fair enough, I hope we have a bitterly cold winter but the Ecm 00z has changed somewhat compared to the 12z last night, that was my point..i'm still hoping for another warm spell before autumn really kicks in.

Your talking about the difference between whole meal and brown bread here, its still bread. Sure the high on the 0z is closer, but we are still close to the edge and still under a cold airmass. Both runs are cooler than their counterparts yesterday and Tuesday.Looks to me like the Mjo being between neutral and phase 6 is ruling the roost.

[Derecho]

One dominant theme over the last few months has been the persistant formation of high pressure between NE Scandanavia and Svalbard. Like 2010 this area was were the most anomalous melting of ice took place. SST's in this region as a result are far above normal. Will the formation of high pressure be persistant there over the next few months? Will be interesting to see. It has been very pronounced on recent runs.

The pattern we are seeing IMO is reminiscent to the second half of May, high pressure to our NE transporting heat to Scandi and leaving central Europe under threat from troughs, the UK and France left with temepratures noticeably below normal.

Given the uprade of next weeks below normal temperatures in recent runs, we are definitely within a shot of having a CET in the 12's.

One thing noticeable later in the runs is hurricane Humberto emerging, this will throw a lot of uncertainty within the models for the later part of the month.

[Summer Sun]

Well despite the more unsettled GFS the met office continue to favour a return to warmer settled conditions during the final part of this month and into October

 

There remain signs of a rather more settled weather type across many parts of the United Kingdom during the last week or so of September, so conditions are more likely than not to be drier than average. This should also allow daytime temperatures to be close to or a little above the late September average and as such conditions will feel quite pleasant in sunshine

 

 

Chilly by night with a risk of frost in rural areas, mist or fog to start the day but warming up nicely once the sun gets to work.

 

That should suite many on here something for everyone

[Chris K]

intresting to see so much northern latitude blocking and I read something yesterday might need to find the post again but there was mention that Iceland would be a favoured area for northern blocking.although as captain said its far to soon in the season for anything to exciting in regards to cold,but 2009/10 had this type of setup early to and stuck around for a longtime.still its what makes model watching intresting but its only one run and one day lets see how it progresses.

What is also interesting is that overall since around June - bar various 'blips' - it has felt like we have had a (excuse the rubbish term) "parent pattern" of the azores high sitting to our SW eventually pushing into and across the UK repeatedly and often linking up with the high over Scandi. The 'strength' of Lower pressure from the South or East were then affecting whether it would stick around or weaken it. This has reset time and time again, but with these periods of time inbetween where something prolonged would spawn from the "parent pattern" and then stuck around until reset again, like the July heat.Only now does it seem to be transitioning to a different pattern as the Jet Stream looks to be awakening from slumber. I will personally be watching for signs for any potential long lasting "parent pattern" setting up over the next few months, as it seems to be a trend in recent years.My thoughts are all purely unscientfic and as much use as a punt for a white christmas....but it's interesting nonetheless from a personal point of view whilst staring at the models year round. Edited September 12, 2013 by Chris K

[mushymanrob]

not yet mushy, the gefs is still showing a fine and pleasant spell arriving by the end of next week, yes it's FI but the low will not last for that long it will fill and drift away. i'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet while there is still a chance of autumn warmth.

 

fair play mate, atm we are on the same team... but in afew weeks youll be the enemy along with all the other coldies! :lol:

 

as for autumn warmth.... hmm... it looked quite likely a few days ago as the models did quite consistently suggest the azh ridge would produce something settled, interestingly the anomaly charts never backed this and now they appear to be right as the ops have dropped any quick azh pressure build. i dont know, but maybe we have just slipped into a pattern change from the one weve had since june (ridging azh), into a much cooler and wetter northwesterly regime..

[Gaz1985]

Well despite the more unsettled GFS the met office continue to favour a return to warmer settled conditions during the final part of this month and into October

 

 

Chilly by night with a risk of frost in rural areas, mist or fog to start the day but warming up nicely once the sun gets to work.

 

That should suite many on here something for everyone

 

Indeed better than wind and rain, at least with the projected High Pressure and sun it should feel pleasant enough in to early October.

[syed2878]

@frosty. If u look at the met update they do talk about a settel spell how ever they do also mension unsettel from start of october. Nw first and spreading south, although the south is mor favoured for mor dryer and setteld. It's good to c the moddels starting to show mor autumnal weather.

[johnholmes]

Translation please!

 

I can understand it so what is the problem VM, I would send a pm but you are not open for such messages it seems.

pm me and I will explain please?

[Frosty.]

The latest met office update is still strongly supporting a GEM 00z type further outlook with fine, dry and sunny weather and pleasant warmth and overnight mist & fog during the last 7-10 days of september which could persist into october, at least for the south & east..so no downgrade in the mid range as far as the warmer and more anticyclonic outlook is concerned.