Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[john pike]

that shows the date as 10th John, it is the 11th and the chart below is the latest

 

 

net wx latest T 120 fax.JPG

 

same on mine john

 

press f5 a few times

[Gaz1985]

High Pressure becoming in control 

 

 

[William of Walworth]

As you all know! I want that powerful (and now undisputed) LP attack to shift away earlier rather than hang around,. One or two models still suggesting the possibility that HP MIGHT attempt to re=build as soon as next Thurs or Fri onwards. Can only hopecast that the slightly more benign models are correct, those wishes are contradicted or in part supported depending on which models you prefer. Last thing I want right now is for fierce winds and rain to be persisting in Eastern England (where I'll be) right into the weekend of the 21st. Could happen. Hoping not. Model watching very anxiously for the last two weekends of September ...

 

(After early October -- you're all welcome to Autumn and Winter because I'll mostly be hibernating after that!)

[mushymanrob]

You may get what you want regarding a settled spell as we move later into September,seems the GFS is keen on this idea.

 

PS wishing for mega heatwaves with temps in the upper 30s would also lead to people dying, probably many more than an autumn storm.

 

temps in the upper 30's in september? has anyone suggested that?..

 

well.... gone is the prospect of any quick return to a settled spell, this mornings models have dropped that scenario. its looking likely now that theres not much prospect of anything pleasant and settled, plus i dont think the teleconnections suggest anything like that is likely. in fact its all looking pretty drab after this weekends storm excitement.

 

time to switch from hot to cold frosty?... :lol:

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows the azozores/atlantic anticyclone ridging in later next week as the low to the northeast slowly departs, so after a cool, windy and unsettled spell, it continues to look like a more benign and pleasantly warm spell with sunny periods and light winds will arrive by the end of next week but before then, a spell of very wet & windy weather will arrive on sunday.

[Frosty.]

 

time to switch from hot to cold frosty?...

not yet mushy, the gefs is still showing a fine and pleasant spell arriving by the end of next week, yes it's FI but the low will not last for that long it will fill and drift away. i'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet while there is still a chance of autumn warmth.

[Isolated Frost]

Much of the next 7 days is dominated by mP airstreams; with temperatures near or just below average, especially across northern areas. Plenty of rain and sleet/snow for this chart in Scotland; the first time the -5c 850 isotherm has appeared on the North Sea stamp- the chance of high pressure building on later, but this weekend, and then an interlude next week look particularly cool, wet, and windy for most.

[Frosty.]

temps in the upper 30's in september? has anyone suggested that?..

 

 

you are right mushy, nobody suggested upper 30's celsius in september, I suggested the possibility of 30 celsius if the anticyclone becomes centred to the east allowing very warm air from southern europe to drift up across the uk.

[Summer Sun]

ECM 00z is now moving the worst of this low away quicker as per GFS last

 

 

End settled in line with last nights ensemble and anomaly

 

 

UKMO keeps this deep low beyond Tuesday

 

 

GFS this morning has moved to UKMO

 

 

The models are all over the place still for early next week

 

[SMU]

Another very cold ( relative ) ECM this morning- & by Day 10 the whole of Northern Europe well below average at 850 MB-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013091200/ECM0-240.GIF?12-12

 

 

For the UK, a train of days at 0c @ 850 MB is almost unheard of for mid September....-

 

S

Edited September 12, 2013 by Steve Murr

[ANYWEATHER]

Another very cold ( relative ) ECM this morning- & by Day 10 the whole of Northern Europe well below average at 850 MB-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013091200/ECM0-240.GIF?12-12

 

 

For the UK, a train of days at 0c @ 850 MB is almost unheard of for mid September....-

 

S

Ah Ahhh! We now know the weather is in cold mode ,now that youre starting posting!!!  

[Frosty.]

I'm happy to report that the Ecm 00z  op run looks much better than the dire 12z last night, there is a gradual improvement later next week as the trough fills and slowly drifts away with the pattern flattening out, the azores/atlantic anticyclone builds a ridge northeastwards across the southern half of the uk with increasingly fine and pleasant weather returning.

[SMU]

Cheers LOL-

 

We could be on course for a sub 13c Sept- !

 

The thing that I keep seeing is the polar height anomaly driving the jet & polar cell further south-

 

 

S

[Frosty.]

Another very cold ( relative ) ECM this morning- & by Day 10 the whole of Northern Europe well below average at 850 MB-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013091200/ECM0-240.GIF?12-12

 

 

For the UK, a train of days at 0c @ 850 MB is almost unheard of for mid September....-

 

S

It's downgraded though steve.

[DAVID SNOW]

you are right mushy, nobody suggested upper 30's celsius in september, I suggested the possibility of 30 celsius if the anticyclone becomes centred to the east allowing very warm air from southern europe to drift up across the uk.

That's correct frosty NOBODY forecast such high temps, as you well know my comment was regarding summer past and peoples wishes for heat waves in summer NOT autumn.

Rob, you have missed the point of my post you quoted but no problem there as for a late settled spell into September the GEM would be the pick of the bunch if that is what some may like.

[Frosty.]

That's correct frosty NOBODY forecast such high temps, as you well know my comment was regarding summer past and peoples wishes for heat waves in summer NOT autumn.

Rob, you have missed the point of my post you quoted but no problem there as for a late settled spell into September the GEM would be the pick of the bunch if that is what some may like.

Although i'm a coldie, I just can't get excited about cold synoptics in september, it's still much too early for anything to come of it apart from across the scottish mountain summits, so if there is a run like the Ecm 12z last night in late october, then I will be very interested, however, it looks like the pattern shown on the ecm 12z was a one off and the longer term trend remains for a settled and warmer spell for around the last week of september..and maybe first week of october? Edited September 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby on the models

 

Good morning folks. Here is the latest report taken using the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday September 12th 2013.

 

All models including the Fax Charts show a moist NW or West airflow over the UK today and across the South tomorrow and some of Saturday too as a warm front crosses from the West later today with it's associated cold front getting hung up over Southern Britain tomorrow and Saturday. Within these fronts will lie outbreaks of mostly light rain but with some heavier bursts tomorrow and Saturday morning in the South as ripples run along the front West to East. The North will become clearer and fresher tomorrow and Saturday with some bright spells. By Sunday a vigorous depression will move East to the North of Scotland with winds becoming strong Westerly everywhere with gales in the North and a band of heavy rain pushing East through Sunday, heavy in places. Monday then sees a cold front having chased the rain away SE leaving all of the UK in a cool or very cool NW flow with squally showers and sunny spells.

 

GFS then shows much of next week being governed by the Low slowly filling as it ambles around in the North sea maintaining showery and cool weather over the British Isles with limited sunny intervals. The strong winds do ease through each day but coming from the North it will always feel cool or very cool especially near the East Coast. Through the second half of the output this morning is for the UK to see continuing changeable weather with rain at times in quite cool conditions with the most notable difference this morning being the strong build of pressure over Greenland later which could well steer some powerful storms across the Atlantic towards the UK later in the month should that happen.

 

The GFS Ensembles are well trending on the cool side of average this morning, certainly through the next week before something of a recovery to more normal levels of temperature in what appears to be a changeable spell of weather throughout.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow to the north of the UK tilting NW to SE across the UK at the weekend in a very powerful form with the flow then projected more or less SE across the UK within the reliable time restraints of the output today.

 

UKMO shows a cool and very windy start to next week with the first band of squally rain clearing to showers but followed by another across the South over Tuesday behind which cool or very cool weather with frequent showers Nationwide look likely.

 

GEM although the same in the short term offers a strong build of pressure late next week from the SW with High pressure straddled across the UK in 10 days time with fine Autumnal weather for most with fog and mist overnight.

 

NAVGEM is much more reluctant to build High pressure in later next week instead opting for a GFS type solution with Low pressure maintained close to or over the North with further cool and showery weather with more prolonged rainfall at times for most areas with High pressure held well to the SW.

 

ECM does show a tentative rise in pressure later next week which would ensure Southern areas at least see drier and brighter weather with no more than the odd shower while Northern parts look likely to hold on to an Atlantic Westerly delivering some rain at times as fronts pass by in association with Low pressure to the NW.

 

In Summary this morning the one thing that is clear is all areas are going to see a spell of wet and windy weather at the end of the weekend and start of next week which will include some unseasonably cool conditions for the north and East in particular for a time. What is unclear remains to be what follows after with GEM and ECM to a lesser degree opting for a more settled ending to next week as high pressure builds from the South. The limitations of the UKMO run make it unclear where that one is heading while GFS and NAVGEM showing something much more unsettled continuing over the UK. GFS shows pressure rising strongly over Greenland which if happens could eventually steer the Jet Stream South and put the UK in the firing line for some potent storms later in the month but at this range this is simply embryonic and subject to change. So all in all a lot of interesting synoptics jostling around over the next few weeks as the poles cool quickly and the summer warmth holds on to our South.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Edited September 12, 2013 by Summer Sun

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

A few people have been harping on about a warm and settled spell for weeks now, but as ever it mostly stays in FI and never materialises. This week was touted as being wam and settled at one point last week. Turned out to be pretty cool,  fairly cloudy with rain on most days in the form of showers or longer spells of rain.

 

Law of averages suggests there will be a warmer more settled spell at some point, but when all i see is HP charts posted at 7+ days away it suggests it's not gonna happen anytime soon.

Edited September 12, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Weather Boy]

High Pressure becoming in control 

 

 

 

The problem with this chart is that it would take a very small adjustment west to give the east (and a slightly larger adjustment for the west too) some pretty horrific weather with cold northerly winds and potentially driving rain.  Given that the chart is 10 days out, that cannot be ruled out.

 

That said, the weather is a moveable feast and one would expect it to clear away east and the high to ridge in.  But then, the models expected that this time last week for the middle/late part of this week, and it didn't happen.  They changed their tune pretty smartish when they realised that they were wrong.

 

I can never work out whether it's scientifically correct to say, 'because the models did this recently, they could well be doing it again' but if it is, that could be the case here.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not much cheer on the model front today, this is about it

 

ensembles show rising pressure, but it's already delayed by a day or 2.

Oh well life goes on, eta of the sun coming back out, better get some vitamin D tablets   

[The PIT]

Sunday and Monday show the first Autumn storm and the first strong winds to hit the country for sometime. GFS seems to be strengthening the storm at the moment. There could be some lively gusts across southern Scotland and northern England Sunday before it gets really nasty early into Monday for Scotland and North Eastern England before it moves away into the north sea.

Should also be some white stuff for the Scottish hills as well.

Plenty of time for downgrades yet though.

[SMU]

It's downgraded though steve.

what has?

 

ECM through 4-10 is colder than yesterday-

[Frosty.]

The GEM 00z is the pick of the 00z output this morning. once the cool, unsettled windy weather subsides... at least for those of us who are hoping for one final summery flourish before autumn becomes too advanced, I mean really, what is not to like about these charts? warm autumn sunshine, mists and mellow fruitfulness and all that..

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Very good agreement between the ECM 00Z, GFS 00Z and UKMO 00Z that the LP will still be affecting our weather at T144.

 

 

 

 

Subject to change of course at this range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

what has?

 

ECM through 4-10 is colder than yesterday-

It's not as bad as the Ecm 12z op run last night, hardly a trend is it steve?