Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.info/etcvl28/vl28-1240-g-grn-n.JPG

 

Nares still in full flow???

 

We really have seen differing patterns ( from recent years) enforce themselves over the basin this year. With the basin being such a different place to how it was in the 80's I wonder if this 'change' will bring us a new 'flavour' to the changes going on there?

 

As an add on there's no denying the north shore of Greenland/Canadian Archipelago has better ice than last year but it is also true that both Nares and Fram feed off this ice. As more ice is driven into this 'thickening' how much of the 'old ice' are we leaching away via these exits?

 

I just read a piece by and Arctic explorer who aims to break the 'speed' record from Ellesmere Island to the Pole this spring. He ended the piece by musing that 'for explorers' it was a normal response to the question 'Why' to say " because it's there"........he wondered if he needed change this for this years expedition to " because it might not be there". Funny really? an explorer is normally remembered for being the 'first' to get to a place. Maybe we're looking at someone becoming famous by being 'the last' to do a certain trip?

 

EDIT:

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png

 

Where will this 'recovery year' end up in the rankings?

Edited December 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[keithlucky]

Massive increase in thick ice in western Arctic http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2013122618_2013122700_038_arcticictn.001.gif

Arctic Sea Ice Volume in 2013 Up 50%. (h/t NorthWest Passage 2013 blog)

“Measurements from ESA’s CryoSat satellite show that the volume of Arctic sea ice has significantly increased this autumn.

The volume of ice measured this autumn is about 50% higher compared to last year.

In October 2013, CryoSat measured about 9000 cubic km of sea ice – a notable increase compared to 6000 cubic km in October 2012.â€

“90% of the increase is due to growth of multiyear ice“

“This year’s multiyear ice is now on average about 20%, or around 30 cm, thicker than last year.â€

“the volume of ice year-to-year was not varying anything like as much as the ice extent“

[Gray-Wolf]

I had recently been looing through tethered buoy data across the Arctic basin ( back beyond 2010) and would suggest that folk suspend their glee at an extra 30cm of ice until they are comfortable with the max melt out rates we have seen recently across the basin during the ' bottom melt' end of the season?

 

However 'pleased' we are to have seen more ice survive this autumn we must keep a sensible head on our shoulders lest we lose it it our excitement?

 

2013 proved a very good year for retaining ice but this was on the back of 1 'perfect melt storm year' ( which dropped ice levels 22% below the last records low) and then a run of 'average summers' which not only challenged that record but , in 2012, dropped the record low another 18%?

 

What odds would you give for a repeat in favour of an 'average', or even 'good' summer across the basin?

 

Remember 2012 hit 'average' ice levels in March of that year ( higher than all the post 07' years) only to find itself setting that new record low. I recall a number of posters , still posting here today, making an awful fuss about this 'record high' in that March?

 

As it is the bulk of the ice facilitating this volume gain is hard up against Greenland/Canadian Archipelago. In one of the recent summers we saw those areas start August with 7m+ ice only to finish Aug with sub 3m ice???

 

As a guide I have always used 2m ice as the absolute survivability limit for an average year ( the Canadian Archipelago is now mostly FY ice and so makes this amount over winter only for it to all go by mid Aug?). Thicker ice depends on ice cover around it or it also fails ( warm water really eats ice!). Ice not flowing into open water is what spared a lot of the ice last year?

 

Let us hope for a repeat of last summer but let us also not be blind to the odds stacked against it?

[knocker]

And so ends 2013

 

 The latest value: 12,341,252 km²â€‚(December 31, 2013)

 

And volume

Edited January 1, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the JAXA plot looks to be the lowest of the series? As for PIOMAS ? Well the continued absence of the Pacific ice has to be impacting the volume we would expect at this time of year? Should we now be expecting this figure to now slip back away from the plotted decline trend line?

[stewfox]

 

As a guide I have always used 2m ice as the absolute survivability limit for an average year ( the Canadian Archipelago is now mostly FY ice and so makes this amount over winter only for it to all go by mid Aug?). Thicker ice depends on ice cover around it or it also fails ( warm water really eats ice!). Ice not flowing into open water is what spared a lot of the ice last year?

 

Let us hope for a repeat of last summer but let us also not be blind to the odds stacked against it?

 

In need and we will be well short of 2m across a wide area and much of this will be new ice not the more resilient multi year ice

 

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png

[BornFromTheVoid]

The mean extent for 2013, based on the NSIDC data, was 10,902,870km2. This is the 7th lowest on record.

 

The lowest 10

2012:... 10.3826262

2007:... 10.46029748

2011:... 10.46472296

2010:... 10.69067742

2006:... 10.75473381

2005:... 10.88583603

2013:... 10.90286608

2009:... 10.91535493

2008:... 10.95861352

2004:... 11.22460022

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Crakopalypse Two......return of the smasher.........

 

 

The High Pressure that has been camped over Beaufort appears to have been to heavy for the fragile ice to bare? We might now expect the ice to crumple ,fracture and rotate around the High ( Beaufort Gyre) .

[4wd]

So more huge gains imminent, like last year.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm just not as sure as you four that we have seen any 'Huge Gains' nor that we can say the type of summer the Arctic will have this year?

 

Though its a bit 'ground-hoggey' a bout of sea ice smashing will make it easier for both the pack to become more mobile and also for the heat to penetrate into the ice faster. The only thing that could prove a positive would be cloudy weather that keeps the ice away from known melt out areas ( kinda like the summer we just saw?) but what are the chances of seeing that particular lightening strike twice?

 

We know we are only 3 years away from the earliest possible return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptics and we know we have had, up until last summer, a run of 'average summers post 07's 'perfect melt storm' summer. To me this means '1 in 10 to 20 year oddball year,average year,average year,average year, average year, average year, cool year?. So no hot years yet? one freak , loads of 'average', 1 cool and no warm years? Hmmmm , what are the odds that we see an above average year compared to another cool one? What are the odds we see another 'average year?

 

My money would go on 'average' , then on 'above average' then on a repeat cool year.

 

The last 'average year' brought us a record low ( 18% lower than the 'perfect melt storm' year of 07') and the last 'cool year saw us rebound to the years between 07' and 2012? That means we know what another cool year will probably bring ( a repeat of last year with final amounts in the 'pack' between 07' and 2012'?) ,we should worry about an 'average year' as this will mean a return to very low ice levels ( like 2012?) and an above average year??? Well they are saying ice free by 2020 a lot these days and so this might budge us down the next level toward that 'seasonal' status.

 

The condition of the pack is also important and, as I was saying 11 months ago, a smashed up pack won't cope with the 2012 type summer as well as the ice of that year did. If this is true then an above average year would be a disaster to a smashed up pack. Another 'cool one'? well that would depend on wind and cloud amounts but we saw what happened after the 2008 'rebound' didn't we?

 

Just silly talk ( because we can't 'know' yet) but I , at this moment, would go for a return to low ice levels at the end of summer just because I see the 'odds' of a year that would provide us with that as being far higher than the ones that would lead to an increase on last years ice min?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Extent now lowest on record for the current date on IJIS/JAXA

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

 

[Gray-Wolf]

So more huge gains imminent, like last year.

 

Better not read the above 4wd...... appears last year finished bottom of the pile over at JAXA ( or near as damn it....lol) . A very odd 12 months eh?

 

I guess the external areas are the reason for the low extent BFTV? Bering, Okhotsk,Greenland and Barentsz?

 

EDIT: What an oddball year eh?

Edited January 7, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

Better not read the above 4wd...... appears last year finished bottom of the pile over at JAXA ( or near as damn it....lol) . A very odd 12 months eh?

 

I guess the external areas are the reason for the low extent BFTV? Bering, Okhotsk,Greenland and Barentsz?

 

EDIT: What an oddball year eh?

GW with all the cracks of last year, the thin ice, storms, high ssts etc etc the fact is that the ice in its worst condition still managed to survive in a better condition. its easy i think to show a picture of a crack or 50 and assume that this is a negative as implied by your good self... however with the mass crack last year it seems to suggest that maybe it might be a good thing? cracking encourages more ice growth, heat escape from the open sea and blocking up and stacking of sea ice so it could actually help with thickness... it would be nice if everytime i read this thread there were some balanced posts rather than.. we are doomed... I could post equally some good news articles by picking select spots just as its easy to find areas that are not doing so well... I dont really care about less ice in Bering ... i care more there is less ice in greenland as that means less transport out imo... Barents may be down on the 90s figures but actually is better than last year... I actually am not concerned about extent either i would rather the cold be bottled up in the north and making the ice thicker... anyway...lets try and think of some balanced suggestions moving forward... yes we are the lowest on record but in reality for this time of year we arent far away from the last 10 years are we? a cold burst over bering and we are all equal.. if we were 1 million off last year or the last 5 years i would be concerned... lets not forget that the cold has moved house this winter and believe the north pole is just north of Texas :-) 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we're all on a learning curve here OSW? Cracking leads to heat loss and over riding ( thickening) but it also leads to increased fragility of areas and increase in transport speeds. We had a 'cool summer' last year ( weather driven?) and this helped maintain a pack in the late noughties figures ( surely a 'cool summer' wouldn't rival 2012?) but will a similar fragmentation event bring about the same under different synoptics over summer? I'm not able to say as I've not witnessed such under the forcings of the post 07' arctic?

 

As things stand the arctic has just shed a lot of it's cold and so any outpourings from Beaufort will just augment that loss ( by propping up higher temps?) so I'm at a loss what to think.

 

I think I'll sit and watch!

 

http://www.woksat.info/etcwa07/wa07-1412-a-apt-w.html

 

A big lead opening up up toward Bering side of Beaufort today

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.info/etcwa09/wa09-1350-a-apt-w.html

 

Anyone like to comment on the top right hand corner of this image?

 

It looks like a 'crackopalypse' type event in Kara with a huge section torn of ( very wide lead?) and ice headed south?

 

Maybe something to look into over the next few days?

[jonboy]

http://www.woksat.info/etcwa09/wa09-1350-a-apt-w.html

 

Anyone like to comment on the top right hand corner of this image?

 

It looks like a 'crackopalypse' type event in Kara with a huge section torn of ( very wide lead?) and ice headed south?

 

Maybe something to look into over the next few days?

 

yet we are about to see a change of synoptic's in the area does this every enter your mindset GW 

[Geordiesnow]

Being a novice I am, I thought ice fracturing and cracking during the winter months is not that unusual and tends to occur every winter due to strong winter storms being one of the main players. 

 

Oldsnowywizard's did a very good post above of how you can balance these things, Barents sea ice is looking quite a bit better than this time last year where constant southerly winds pushed the ice edge well up north and lets be honest, an above sea ice extent in the Bering Sea has little impact on the ice in the basin itself, you would imagine having thicker ice in the Barents/Kara Seas is more of a positive. 

 

Still far too early to make predictions for the summer and it be interesting what the sea ice volume is come the Spring. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Quite right G.S. , fracturing and leads are a part of the arctic scenery! Excessive fracturing is not. The type of event we witnessed last Feb was not a common event in the Arctic ( only possible because the ice is now so young and thin) and it might be that we are seeing the beginning of another of these events now ( 6 weeks earlier than last year).

 

This is 'The New Arctic' and , as such, has a lot to teach those willing to learn?

[knocker]

Seems to be a tongue of warmish air sneaking in from the east midweek. Cooler again by the weekend.

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

C.T. show an area drop? From looking at their 'areas' it appears that Hudson is one of the main contributors to the drop off?

 

Anyone know why this might be (I thought that it would have been prey to the recent cold plunge?)?

[knocker]

Cracks and the mobility of ice in the Beaufort

 

As mentioned in the post on last week's weird winter weather, a large blocking high over the Beaufort Sea also caused a cracking that was a minor repeat of last year's spectacular and extensive cracking event. Although this one wasn't as notable (Jan. 1st image on the right was posted by Jim Hunt on the ASIF),I'd like to share with you this article Chris Reynolds posted on his Dosbat blog a couple of days ago,in which he discusses the effect thinning ice will probably have on the amount of cracking events occuring in the future:

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/01/cracks-and-the-mobility-of-ice-in-the-beaufort.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Gray-Wolf]

A little later into Jan a huge swathe of Kara ripped open and headed south. I think this is still visible on the Wokingham images ( Arctic to pole). Also the ice exiting into Fram is teeny compared to past years ( with plenty of water in between floes).

 

Let's see how the next 8 weeks go but I'd expect Kara to show an odd melt pattern this year with this band of newly formed ice bound to melt out earlier than the rest?

[Geordiesnow]

C.T. show an area drop? From looking at their 'areas' it appears that Hudson is one of the main contributors to the drop off?

 

Anyone know why this might be (I thought that it would have been prey to the recent cold plunge?)?

 

Parts of Canada has recently experienced a very strong winter storm so I assume the winds pushed the ice from the Northern coast of Hudson and this can be seen from the thicknesses charts?

[knocker]

Yesterday

Edited January 25, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Formation of Nares Strait Ice Bridges in 2014

 

Darkness and cold covers North Greenland, Ellesmere Island as well as Nares Strait, the waterway that connects these two inhospitable places. And despite the darkness of the polar night, I can see that three beautiful arches made of ice connect Greenland to Canada. It is possible to walk across water, if the water is frozen. Stuck to land, ice arches or ice bridges shut down ice motion while the ocean under the ice keeps moving. Lets have a peek at how this looked from space yesterday:

 

http://icyseas.org/2014/01/27/formation-of-nares-strait-ice-bridges-in-2014/