Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[AderynCoch]

tree north.jpg

Tree up North

 

No that's the Midlands. The North is all heather and bracken.

[Soaring Hawk]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

 

And the best of luck to you Mr Sykes for a safe journey.  We'd all want to know that you arrived OK, so please message us when you make land...from The Hague

Edited October 25, 2013 by Soaring Hawk

[Buckster]

didn't we have a really intense storm some 8-10 years back in the S-East

 

I remember reports of >80mph gusts, wind howling like I've never heard before

[Iceni]

Errrm trees of any size can snap from the middle in storm force winds, not just from the base.

 

 

I don't know, if anything it might make roots weaker over time. I don't think trees gain any "experience" or know what's hits them, they don't really have a brain of sorts.

 

The National Trust and RHS held a moratorium about the trees they lost. They found that those which had grown in situ since they were tiny saplings held firm - they'd developed a good root system, but the ones which had been planted as semi-mature specimens, went over as even if they'd been there 20 years, they'd never developed a decent root system to keep them upright.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Iceni

[AderynCoch]

Seriously though, in situations like these it helps to assume the worst-case scenario will entail. Wind speed is just one factor when it comes to toppling trees in addition to size, species, being in leaf, etc. I'd be very surprised if somewhere didn't suffer damage and disruption from falling objects.

[jamicu]

Might be going off topic, but I can give some info about trees having in the past been involved with the management woodlands.Trees in areas which commonly experience strong winds will have created a structure that is more resistant to heavy winds. Trees on the the south coast of england will be able to handle much higher wind speeds than the trees further inland along the south coast. A more significant issue at the moment is the wetness/softness of the soil, and trees which still have a large percentage of leaves present.

 

Edit: I'm in fairly good spot for this, and I'm not doing anything on Monday. Tempted to take a walk up to Berry Head [map link]. They've got a webcam up there that might be worth checking if it turns out to be windy there on Monday morning [webcam link]

Edited October 25, 2013 by jamicu

[coldfingers]

Indeed I said a similar thing last night and got hounded for it, I guess all the trees in the far south must be of a delicate tropical nature or not part of the species we have up north? 

Hi Gaz, just as a matter of interest, do you get many Oaks up North? This is a genuine question and I would be interested in an answer. If you do I suggest anyone should never shelter under an oak in a windstorm, they tend to lose very heavy branches very easily.

[Robbie Garrett]

Rainfall from GFS high res, in HD.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[DAVID SNOW]

I'm really not sure what to make of this to be honest. I would like to think that Mr Sykes is a regular and generous donator to the likes of the RNLI though.

 

 

A little pulling of the leg BB

[LadyEv06]

It's half term for the majority I believe, at least here in London it is.  Cat 2 hurricane has sustained winds of 90mph+, this storm is talking about gusts of 90mph so not the same.

We've had half term here this week, hopefully most schools will be on half term down south where the winds look to be most dangerous! Wish me luck getting battered on the 3 mile round school walk!

[Mokidugway]

The northern tree looks post apocalyptic , give me the southern cutie every time!!

[Dancerwithwings]

Come monday there might be a few trees looking like this

 

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Mokidugway]

On a serious note alot of trees at the roadside are weakend by damage to their root system from utility companies digging trenches...

[doctormog]

Hi Gaz, just as a matter of interest, do you get many Oaks up North? This is a genuine question and I would be interested in an answer. If you do I suggest anyone should never shelter under an oak in a windstorm, they tend to lose very heavy branches very easily.

We have areas of oak woodland in various locations up here.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I have been lurking for 3+ years, following mostly snow events which I love (and T-Storms!!), but I have to say this event really worries me!

 

First experience of a severe storm was somewhere between 1976-78, living on north norfolk coast (golf club right on beach) and wind drove waves down chimney of golf club we lived in, had to evacuate in early hours of morning, me a toddler on neighbours neck walking up coast road in 4+ feet of (not normal tidal) water, storm surge flooded main coastal roads and worse flooding the mile or so closer to the beach.

 

Then was 1987; totally unexpected; day off school, yay! but then in early daylight hours, bits of our (30ish year old house) started breaking off; many roof tiles lost, flying off as projectiles, greenhouse ended up in bits in many gardens, broken windows and conservatory, triple glazed roof ended up at bottom of the garden, only fitted a few years before.

 

Then was 1990; much the same as 1987, but not quite as bad; conservatory roof barely held, but my brother fell through it trying to pick up broken roof tiles off it the following day, so needed replacing again. Father was at work in 8 story tower block which moved in wind enough to make him feel nauseous; wind caused serious chimney fire with ember bits flying everywhere, called fire brigade, they came out, but they said to let it burn out as was too dangerous to do anything else unless it spread.

 

Maybe 2000? In my current house; strong winds which blew the carpets up off the floor an inch or two through the air bricks in the bottom of the walls; no damage, but many neighbours had some minor stuff, like fences blown out, roof tiles off etc. I have not heard those "howling" winds since then, and hope I don't on Monday!

 

Really hoping this turns out to be nothing more than in recent years!!

Thanks for your first post.  My 1987 memory is of the wind just making a low keening sound for about 3 hours.  I lived about 200 metres from a woon and II could hear the trees snapping as the wind took them down.  The interior of the wood was a shambles, almost all of the trees around the perimeter stayed up.

 

Are you still in Norfolk?

[Lincs Observation]

In relation to the tree thing i have several 70 foot poplar trees still in full leaf to worry about, we lost one two weeks ago in what was a breezy monday night rush hour, 4 of these trees now have white X's on to be felled i suspect that come monday nature may well do some of the work for us.

 

LO

Edited October 25, 2013 by Lincs Observation

[PurpleButterfly]

 

I am excited but also quite worried at the same time about this storm! I remember 87" I was only 6yrs old then! (my I feel old now)

I just remember the damage it caused. I hope this storm isn't to bad, we have quite a lot of tree's around our street that are still in full leaf!!

I'm going to prepare myself non the less as its better to be ready!! Got to get the garden all sorted and the rabbit moved in doors.

 

What is the wind speed for Bedfordshire estimated at the moment? My location doesn't look good from the charts and the UKMO have the strongest guests at 63mph. 

[Pixel]

Come monday there might be a few trees looking like this

 

trees are tough oop north - down south you wouldn't want to park your car under any tree this coming Sunday nite 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Pixel

[A.J]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

be sure to take your passport with you chap, as model output suggests you'll make landfall in central Germany!

[coldfingers]

We have areas of oak woodland in various locations up here.

Thanks for the reply, son has been studying arboriculture and his interest is rubbing off on me.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The northern tree looks post apocalyptic , give me the southern cutie every time!!

After the Storm, they could both look the same.

 

We can't change what is going to happen, so Sunday evening I have a  and watch what happens.

 

I checked the generator out two weeks ago so even if we lose power I can still boil a kettle, keep two rooms warm and use the broadband and a computer.

 

All I hope is that the roof stays put on my and my neighbours houses.

In relation to the tree thing i have several 70 foot poplar trees still in full leaf to worry about, we lost one two weeks ago in what was a breezy monday night rush hour, 4 of these trees now have white X's on to be felled i suspect that come monday nature may well do some of the work for us.

 

LO

I hope they are far enough away from any buildings as to not cause problems

[Su Campu]

As I said before, the Rosenbloom Rule hints that a storm like this will track to the left (north) of the model forecast tracks. This could mean places like the Isle of Wight could be wightly fooked!

Still large scope for this to fall on the cold side of the polar front and hence not deepen as much. I think it'll be all to play for until t-24 hrs, and even then we could see a wide range of minimum pressur forecasts. I'm going for 965 hPa.

[Ruthie]

I live in a park in west London surrounded by trees, and so like many others will prob have a restless night on Sunday!

[Iceni]

Hi Gaz, just as a matter of interest, do you get many Oaks up North? This is a genuine question and I would be interested in an answer. If you do I suggest anyone should never shelter under an oak in a windstorm, they tend to lose very heavy branches very easily.

 

Oaks lose branches, but the worst trees of all were the beeches. Nearly all of them just uprooted in West Sussex. Very shallow root systems.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Think I'll move the fireworks out from the shed this weekend! there's a big ol' tree still in full leaf right behind it in next doors garden, and it's already leaning to the north east!

 

Would rather not wake up to fireworks shooting all over the garden come early Monday morning