Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[Skullzrulerz]

Hahaa! All the best mate. All I know is, they will not be a million miles from you at all. Definitely Nottingham across to Lincs Southward. You might get some tornadic action though, as there looks to be some mad converging winds within the centre of the low. Beware bud! I think I'm gonna be in for a serious battering 

tornadoes???

[Storm Track]

This storm system could be potentially very dangerous winds with potentially very damaging winds are very likely in the further of the Southern England areas early Sunday night and into Monday night that would be equivalent to a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Storm Track

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Does it matter which way it goes?

Very much so, a 200-300 mile Southward shift will leave us wondering what all the fuss would be about except maybe the extreme South. The likely track is that we will cop for some serious action, and a 50-100 mile Northward shift will mean much more of the Midlands, maybe as far North as Yorkshire getting some damaging winds. 

[LadyEv06]

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

tornadoes???

Indeed tornadoes. A pretty considerable risk in my eyes too. Do not be surprised to see reports of a twister by the time Monday lunchtime has arrived as it stands.

[weirpig]

yeah as a few people have said mid wales to the humber  looking at the moment were main action will be,  but with a few days left the track could and probably will change,. could be a fair storm on the way.

[feb1991blizzard]

Never mind the isles of scilly, he will end up in the isles of absolute stupid if he tries, he would definitely end up needing goggles.

[Darandio]

Satellite imagery doesn't show much at the moment, but what we can't see is how the jet stream is going to interact.

 

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

Completely stupid question no doubt, but moving that imagery forward to the present time, is it the formation towards the top left that is going to form this storm?

Edited October 25, 2013 by Darandio

[radiohead]

This is from the National Weather Serivce Ocean Prediction Center 48 hour chart (midday Sunday)

 

Note the "Developing hurricane force" and the track indicated by the arrow over the UK.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by radiohead

[Kiwi]

It's never as bad as they say. I'm determined to complete my sail from Cornwall to the scilly isles on Monday

 

[Casper]

Good evening all, this weather event is certainly setting this board alight! I'm in Swindon so should be getting some of the strong winds. Unfortunately Monday morning I have to travel in to work at 05.15 am on my scooter (not my big bike in my avatar!), I hope I not going to get blown all over the place!! Stay safe everyone.

[Mokidugway]

The storms predicted path could lead to some very heavy rain over the lake distict wich is a bit worying to say the least, and a possable sting in its tale for nw/ne as it exits the uk north of the wash ?

[Matty M]

My opinion of actual outcome is an ensemble member.

 

Take a degree off for imby'ism but this is my hunch from experience.

 

Storm deepening earlier and further than models now suggesting and pushing further north as a result.

 

[Benny123]

Does anyone have any idea if this storm will coincide with high tides? Also, is there anyone brave enough that plans to video document the storms progress? (Preferably along the South coast)

[weirpig]

This is from the National Weather Serivce Ocean Prediction Center 48 hour chart (midday Sunday)

 

Note the "Developing hurricane force" and the track indicated by the arrow over the UK.

 

 

 

is it me or does this put the track of the low even further north??

  seems to be over north wales

[stevofunnelcl]

This storm system could be potentially very dangerous winds with potentially very damaging winds are very likely in the further of the Southern England areas early Sunday night and into Monday night that would be equivalent to a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

I disagree, it won't be that bad

---

Category 2 Category 2 Sustained winds 43–49 m/s 83–95 kn

Juan rapidly weakening 154–177 km/h 96–110 mph Normal central pressure 965–979 mbar 28.50–28.91 inHg

Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage

Storms of Category 2 intensity often damage roofing material (sometimes exposing the roof) and inflict damage upon poorly constructed doors and windows. Poorly constructed signs and piers can receive considerable damage and many trees are uprooted or snapped. Mobile homes, whether anchored or not, are typically damaged and sometimes destroyed, and many manufactured homes also suffer structural damage. Small craft in unprotected anchorages may break their moorings. Extensive to near-total power outages and scattered loss of potable water are likely, possibly lasting many days.^[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 2 intensity, and made landfall at that intensity, include Diana (1990), Erin (1995), Alma (1996), and Ernesto (2012).

---

This storm won't be packing winds of 96-110 mph

 

If people must compare North Atlantic depression to tropical systems, it would be realistic to compare it to a Tropical Storm

 

But, we're not talking about a warm core system, that needs ocean temperatures of 28c+ to sustain itself

[Jo Farrow]

It's worth remembering that the actual centre of the low pressure is not where the strongest winds are. Due to various forces Coriolis, friction etc the southerly flank/side of this low will be where the most damaging gusts/winds will hit. That's why our watch highlights Channel coastal counties specifically - at the moment

 

Have a look on Netweather Extra (if you subscribe) NMM 18 Winds gusts and Windspeed/direction (t+66 +69), you can see the quieter centre and red gusts to south

[Jayces]

Can't you move south for the day?? Lol, I don't want it too bad - can't see the school run being much fun :-/

 

It's half term for the majority I believe, at least here in London it is.

 

This storm system could be potentially very dangerous winds with potentially very damaging winds are very likely in the further of the Southern England areas early Sunday night and into Monday night that would be equivalent to a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

 

Cat 2 hurricane has sustained winds of 90mph+, this storm is talking about gusts of 90mph so not the same.

[Snowman.]

Looking at GFS high res

 

You get gusts topping the high 60's mph till early Monday morning then from 09:00 they ease

 

At this stage the worst is out in the channel sparing the UK the worst though the Kent coast may be the one exception for mainland England

 

 

I wouldn't like to be crossing to France on the ferry on Monday

 

This is concerning for me now.

[pip22]

Watch BBC news now its talking about the storm right now.

[radiohead]

is it me or does this put the track of the low even further north??

  seems to be over north wales

 

Yes, the track is a little further north. It was issued at 17:54:41 UTC so it's quite recent.

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Does anyone have any idea if this storm will coincide with high tides? Also, is there anyone brave enough that plans to video document the storms progress? (Preferably along the South coast)

Neap Tides next week, not high spring tides.  Also main wind direction is from the South to South West until it passes us, then a brief spell of strongish North Westerlies

[I Cumbria Marra I]

The winds have to be stronger than about 80mph to cause any serious damage in my experience, no chance 60-70mph will uproot any trees.

[AderynCoch]

is it me or does this put the track of the low even further north??

  seems to be over north wales

That's what I've been thinking. At the moment we're fine up here in the calm of the eye (as much as extratropical cyclones have eyes), but it wouldn't take a great shift northwards to bring the tightly-packed isobars on the southern side of the centre up here.

 

I do think the south coast is going to have it bad regardless of any northward shift, as they'll be exposed to winds gusting off the Channel.

[Guest William Grimsley]

The torrential rain on the northern flank of this low is concerning though - ground here is completely saturated...

I'll be joining near you area on Monday. Also, I think rainfall is going to be much more of a problem than wind in Cheshire on Monday.

 

EDIT: Oops, I thought you were in the Liverpool area. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by William Grimsley