Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013

[coldfingers]

As I said before, the Rosenbloom Rule hints that a storm like this will track to the left (north) of the model forecast tracks. This could mean places like the Isle of Wight could be wightly fooked!Still large scope for this to fall on the cold side of the polar front and hence not deepen as much. I think it'll be all to play for until t-24 hrs, and even then we could see a wide range of minimum pressur forecasts. I'm going for 965 hPa.

Please don't talk about it tracking further north, I can see Isle of Wight from where i live and I am also only half a mile from the beach. I REALLY don't want this storm to even be a baby of '87. Once in a lifetime is enough, also my daughter is only one street away from the beach with South facing windows. Thankfully their bedroom is to the north.

Edited October 25, 2013 by coldfingers

[DAVID SNOW]

I am excited but also quite worried at the same time about this storm! I remember 87" I was only 6yrs old then! (my I feel old now)

I just remember the damage it caused. I hope this storm isn't to bad, we have quite a lot of tree's around our street that are still in full leaf!!

I'm going to prepare myself non the less as its better to be ready!! Got to get the garden all sorted and the rabbit moved in doors.

 

What is the wind speed for Bedfordshire estimated at the moment? My location doesn't look good from the charts and the UKMO have the strongest guests at 63mph. 

 

 Be careful also with high sided avatars.....

[PurpleButterfly]

 Be careful also with high sided avatars.....

Don't worry I will be staying indoors too

[ANYWEATHER]

The cyclogenisis starts there about Midday Sunday according to the gfs and ecm with the black arrows illustrating this, then the  explosive low develops between midday Sunday and Midday Monday . somewhere is going to get badly hit at the moment perhaps the channel coastal counties, but as illustrated by the gfs some stormy winds developing for a short time as this bomb like moves away across Wales and the Midlands, and any severe weather will be thank lived to the jet stream pushing that low toward the near continent......  

[SLo47]

Thanks for your first post.  My 1987 memory is of the wind just making a low keening sound for about 3 hours.  I lived about 200 metres from a woon and II could hear the trees snapping as the wind took them down.  The interior of the wood was a shambles, almost all of the trees around the perimeter stayed up.

 

Are you still in Norfolk?

 

 

Thanks for your first post.  My 1987 memory is of the wind just making a low keening sound for about 3 hours.  I lived about 200 metres from a woon and II could hear the trees snapping as the wind took them down.  The interior of the wood was a shambles, almost all of the trees around the perimeter stayed up.

 

Are you still in Norfolk?

Thanks Not sure what a woon is, have no technical expertise with weather at all. I remember it died down in the morning, and was quiet for an hour or so, and went to visit my Nan a few hundred yards away ( day off school and all!) then it kicked back up again. We never lost any trees, just structural damage and power outage for a week or so. I was pretty young at the time, but best guess would be about from 5am, quiet at 9am, then back again until maybe 12pm? Still remember our power pylon at the end of our garden flashing violently until the cable came down in the front garden!

 

And yes, still in Norfolk, Fakenham now

Edited October 25, 2013 by SLo47

[P-M]

I live in a park in west London surrounded by trees, and so like many others will prob have a restless night on Sunday!

 

 

Do they not have homeless hostels down south?  Better than sleeping in  park surely...

Edited October 25, 2013 by P-M

[Dancerwithwings]

be sure to take your passport with you chap, as model output suggests you'll make landfall in central Germany!

You could be right there! It maybe a scene from The Wizard Of Oz , Where you'll see Miss Gulch (the Wicked Witch) madly pedaling her bicycle through the air !!!!

Edited October 25, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Thanks Not sure what a woon is, have no technical expertise with weather at all. I remember it died down in the morning, and was quiet for an hour or so, and went to visit my Nan a few hundred yards away ( day off school and all!) then it kicked back up again. We never lost any trees, just structural damage and power outage for a week or so. I was pretty young at the time, but best guess would be about from 5am, quiet at 9am, then back again until maybe 12pm? Still remember our power pylon at the end of our garden flashing violently until the cable came down in the front garden!

 

And yes, still in Norfolk, Fakenham now

A woon is a wood typed by fingers that aren't listening to the brain.  Nothing to do with Alcohol  (Honest).

 

Perhaps we ought to start a "Memories of 87" thread.  I live 2 miles from the wood I mentioned in the last post having moved house twice in that time.

 

As far as Monday is concerned (just to get back to the topic), latest output seems to show the track fractionally further north, so that would expose us to the strongest winds.  But we will not know until it happens, the important thing is what pressure it has dropped to as it crosses the country, anything below 970mb and the winds will be remembers for a long time.

[Nick L]

Funniest headline I have ever read. Sounds like a terrible straight-to-video movie title.

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/347103/Killer-Megastorm-to-batter-Britain-on-Monday-Met-Office-EXTENDS-weather-warning

[Tom Jarvis]

can I ask what are the chances of this storm producing sting jet and do the models take this into account. also if it were to have a sting jet what would be the wind speeds?? 

[Jo Farrow]

Funniest headline I have ever read. Sounds like a terrible straight-to-video movie title.

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/347103/Killer-Megastorm-to-batter-Britain-on-Monday-Met-Office-EXTENDS-weather-warning

I love the capital EXTENDS

they can't keep the drama going from Killer megastorm into MO wx warning, haha so put extends in capitals

[P-M]

Funniest headline I have ever read. Sounds like a terrible straight-to-video movie title.

 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/347103/Killer-Megastorm-to-batter-Britain-on-Monday-Met-Office-EXTENDS-weather-warning

 

 

Words fail me........funny as nope - still swearingk though haha  

[Azores Hi]

Be of no doubt, if this storm hits as predicted and we have inland gusts in excess of 60 mph there will be trees felled. Older weaker trees will be weeded out. Trees weakened by previous storms may go. Full leaf and wet ground makes this almost a certainty. The question is, how many will go?

Edited October 25, 2013 by Azores Hi

[Pixel]

Oaks lose branches, but the worst trees of all were the beeches. Nearly all of them just uprooted in West Sussex. Very shallow root systems.

interesting... 

our neighbour had permission refused by the council to get his beech tree thinned out last year, it's over 60ft tall and still has all its leaves.. and what with the ground being so wet me thinks the council might be paying for some street furniture (lamp posts, fences, bus stops, signs etc) very soon.

 

Am impressed with the warnings out so soon with a storm that hasn't physically appeared yet.. how technology has moved on since 87 - rather be warned than wake up to all that again - in-fact rather be warned and it not to happen at all.

[Jo Farrow]

can I ask what are the chances of this storm producing sting jet and do the models take this into account. also if it were to have a sting jet what would be the wind speeds?? 

I've just put this link out  http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=9957

 

which explains about Sting Jets and there is the potential for this to happen from this Monday storm and that would give the >100mph winds

[Nick L]

I love the capital EXTENDS

they can't keep the drama going from Killer megastorm into MO wx warning, haha so put extends in capitals

 

As if "Killer Megastorm" wasn't frightening enough, the capitalisation of "extends" truly had me reaching for fresh underwear...

[nick sussex]

can I ask what are the chances of this storm producing sting jet and do the models take this into account. also if it were to have a sting jet what would be the wind speeds??

Theres a good explanation of sting jets on the UKMO set which has a great download also going into further detail:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet

[Zenarcher]

Taking a closer look at what the main three weather models say this evening between the ECM, GFS and UKMO.

 

Trying my best to look at the differences where they place the center of the low at 60 hours (Monday 12am) the drawing below shows where each model places it,

 

 

Thanks to a handy tool on Google Maps the difference between the ECM and UKMO is about 246 miles apart from where they place the very center of the low which explains the different outcomes and the GFS is in the middle.

 

Here's the difference between them at 72 hours,

 

 

So each of them draw out different arrivals of the low, different deepness etc lets take a look at what each one says because either one of them may be correct or pretty close.

 

UKMO

 

Here are the gusts for 3am on Monday where it says the winds will be at their highest. So we have some parts along the coast hitting just over 70mph and inland parts 50 to 60mph.

 

 

Rainfall charts in MM

 

Monday 12am rain pushing in from the SW giving 12mm to 20mm,

 

 

Monday 12pm rain widespread across England and Wales giving 20mm to 33mm in some parts,

 

 

ECM

 

The 69 hour chart of the ECM which is 9am on Monday I've drawn out the highlighted area and what the wind speeds say in MPH,

 

 

And the same again for 12pm Monday when the worst of the winds move inland,

 

 

GFS

 

Monday 3am the GFS shows 60 and possibly 70mph gusts for the South coasts,

 

 

Rainfall charts heavy rain moves in to Southern parts along with the strong winds between 8 - 14mm,

 

 

Monday 9am the GFS shows 60 to 70mph gusts affecting the coastal area's and even some inland parts. In the channel it shows gusts reach over 75mph and possibly 80mph,

 

 

Rainfall 9am eases off in the South but gets heavy over Northern England 14 - 25mm,

 

 

As we approach Monday the models will continue to get a better grip on things but I would recommend looking at the NAE charts that you can find here http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

 to view rainfall and wind etc and if your subscribed to Net Weather Extra keep a close watch on the NMM which is very good for events like this based on experience I've had anyway. Sat images, ship and buoy reports will also come in handy when the low approaches they will tell us if its coming in as forecast or if it misbehaves and goes in deeper and takes a slightly different track.

[Jo Farrow]

Theres a good explanation of sting jets on the UKMO set which has a great download also going into further detail:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet

the explainer on that is great

[feb1991blizzard]

There is a good post by Brickfielder earlier in this thread as well.

[Su Campu]

I've just put this link out  http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/display/?id=9957

 

which explains about Sting Jets and there is the potential for this to happen from this Monday storm and that would give the >100mph winds

I wish the misquoting of Michael Fish would stop. A hurricane didn't hit England, it was a storm. Just like Monday's. 

[Jo Farrow]

I wish the misquoting of Michael Fish would stop. A hurricane didn't hit England, it was a storm. Just like Monday's. 

Mike doesn't mind, you're right  though

[mountain shadow]

A predicted sub 970mb low pressure travelling through central southern England is a rare thing.

It may be damaging or it may not but Southerners in exposed areas should at the very least ensure they are prepared.

[Storm Track]

Well, it could be look like a wind speed with more than 100mph that could be more very serious affects for hurricane I predict

I disagree, it won't be that bad

--- Category 2 Category 2 Sustained winds 43–49 m/s 83–95 kn

Juan rapidly weakening 154–177 km/h 96–110 mph Normal central pressure 965–979 mbar 28.50–28.91 inHg

Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage

Storms of Category 2 intensity often damage roofing material (sometimes exposing the roof) and inflict damage upon poorly constructed doors and windows. Poorly constructed signs and piers can receive considerable damage and many trees are uprooted or snapped. Mobile homes, whether anchored or not, are typically damaged and sometimes destroyed, and many manufactured homes also suffer structural damage. Small craft in unprotected anchorages may break their moorings. Extensive to near-total power outages and scattered loss of potable water are likely, possibly lasting many days.^[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 2 intensity, and made landfall at that intensity, include Diana (1990), Erin (1995), Alma (1996), and Ernesto (2012).

---

This storm won't be packing winds of 96-110 mph

If people must compare North Atlantic depression to tropical systems, it would be realistic to compare it to a Tropical Storm

But, we're not talking about a warm core system, that needs ocean temperatures of 28c+ to sustain itself

[Summer Sun]

Daily Mirror front page tomorrow

 

 

Daily Express front page

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Summer Sun