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Super Typhoon Haiyan


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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    The barrage of TC's in the West Pacific continues. TD 31W has developed close to Pohnpei, about 30 degrees longitude to the east of the Philippines. Unfortunately, this cyclone is forecast to move westward and slam the Philippines at almost the same location as 30W, but then as a major typhoon. This could cause quite some devastation, but the track is far from set in stone, as the center is yet in its developing stages and it will likely take more than 5 days before this cyclone reaches the Philippines. 

     

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    The forecasted track and development location do show some similarities with Super Typhoon Bopha, which made landfall as a cat.5 super typhoon at the southern Philippines. Let's hope this cyclone won't repeat that scenario.

     

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    TC Bopha at landfall as a cat.5 storm making landfall at the Philippines.

    Edited by Vorticity0123
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    31W has strengthened and has become Tropical Storm Haiyan, with winds of 35kts. Although the storm is quite broad in nature, some fairly quick intensification is expected as the system moves west-northwest towards the Philippines, as shear looks relatively low along track and waters are very warm east of the Philippines. In fact, JTWC mention the possibility of rapid strengthening on approach to the Philippines. Looks to be a a big concern to the Philippines later this week.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Yet again another one heading for the Philippines: 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Interesting blog from Jeff Masters. Apparently this October was the most active on record for the number of typhoons in the West Pacific. And despite us now being in November, it shows no signs of slowing down.

     

    More trouble in the Western Pacific
    Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific over the past month has been very high, with seven typhoons in the month of October alone. According to records at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), this would appear to be a new record for the number of typhoons in any October, breaking the previous record of six typhoons during October 1989 (thanks go to typhoon expert Mark Lander for this stat.) The latest system of concern is Tropical Storm Haiyan, which is gathering strength over the warm tropical waters east of the Philippines. Haiyan's formation brings the tally of named storms in the Western Pacific in 2013 to 28, making it the busiest season in that ocean basin since the 32 named storms of 2004. Satellite loops show that Haiyan is a large tropical storm with plenty of intense thunderstorms that are steadily growing more organized. Haiyan is expected to take advantage of warm waters and low wind shear and intensify into a major Category 4 typhoon by Thursday. Both the GFS and European models predict that Haiyan will pass through the central Philippines near 6 UTC on Friday. If this prediction holds true, Haiyan could be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year--particularly since Tropical Depression Thirty is dumping heavy rains of up to one inch per hour over the central Philippines today, which will saturate the soil and make extreme flooding more likely late this week when Haiyan arrives.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Haiyan has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at 55kts. Haiyan has developed a solid central dense overcast flanked by strong banding features. Shear remains low, waters warm and outflow excellent. Based on the structure of Haiyan, and the very favourable environment ahead, Haiyan is likely to enter a rapid intensification phase over the next day or so. JTWC expect a peak of 130kts, which looks likely. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to see another cat 5 IMO. This looks like it is going to be devestating for the Philippines.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Haiyan has continued to strengthen

     

    Up to Typhoon strength now:

     

     

    Haiyan Now A Typhoon, Gaining Strength

     

    While the Atlantic hurricane season may have taken its last breath, that is certainly not the case in the western Pacific Ocean. Typhoon Haiyan, roughly 500 miles south of Guam, is gathering strength in a favorable environment of light winds aloft and warm sea-surface temperatures.

     
    Haiyan's forecast west-northwest track will keep it well south of Guam, however, it will also put it on a collision course with the Philippines later this week. According to the latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (shown in the second graphic at right), Haiyan may approach super typhoon status (sustained winds at least 150 mph) before reaching the central Philippines around Friday midday, local time (late Thursday night, U.S. time). Given this more southern track than past tropical cyclones this season, the Philippine capital of Manila, home to roughly 12 million people in the metro area, is in danger of a direct strike by Haiyan Friday night or early Saturday local time 
     
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    http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-storm-typhoon-haiyan-threatens-manila-philippines-20131104

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed Coast, winds are now up to 65kts, making Haiyan a cat 1 typhoon on the SS scale. The solid central dense overcast perisists, flanked by strong banding, and an eye feature is beginning to emerge. I expect some rapid strengthening this afternoon, as shear remains low and waters warm. Outflow is near radial and remains impressive, further supporting the idea of rapid intensification.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Haiyan is rapidly intensifying. An well defined eye has cleared out within the solid central dense overcast. Winds are now at 105kts (cat 3 SS scale) according to JTWC. The rapid strengthening is expected to continue, with Haiyan expected to become a 130kt super typhoon in the next 12 hours then cat 5 intensity prior to slamming into the Philippines. A serious scenario for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Haiyan has further intensified and is now a 130kt super typhoon (high end cat 4 on the SS scale). The eye has become even smaller and is only 6 nautical miles wide according to JTWC. Haiyan is expected to become the season's 4th cat 5 later today (and the world's 5th).

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Haiyan could be a biggy and develop further through today:

     

     

    Typhoon Haiyan is intensifying as it continues to move across the northern Pacific, packing winds of up to 240 kilometres per hour.
     
    Forecaster Michael Ziobrol, from the US National Weather Service, says the typhoon is expected to affect parts of Micronesia later on Wednesday. "It's going pretty quickly and it's going to go to Palau and south of Yap but there's a little island there with a few people called Nrulu and they're probably going to get the eye of the typhoon over them," he said. The Palau National Emergency Management Office (NEMO) is advising the public to tune into local broadcasters for updates and to stock up on emergency supplies. Palau's government offices and schools will remain shut until Friday.
     
    Mr Ziobro says many of the islands in the path of the typhoon are low-lying areas. "Some of these little islands are not very high... levels above the ocean so some of the wave action would be higher than atolls," he said. "They might be only about 10 feet high and we're expecting seas of 13-16 feet and probably even higher than that and it could over wash the island." So far, there have been no deaths but some damage has been reported. Mr Ziobro says people on the Micronesian islands should not venture out to sea due to rough waters and strong winds. "That's very dangerous at this point," he said. "There was a little island... Woleai, we knew they had some damage. We haven't heard anybody getting hurt or killed so that's been fortunate for now."
     
    'Most dangerous storm'
     
    Haiyan is expected to reach central Philippines as a super typhoon by Friday noon local time, moving at 233-249 kilometres per hour, according to Michael Ziobrol. "If people are in the Philippines, they should start preparing too, especially the central Philippines," he said. Dr Jeff Masters, a contributor to the weather blog Wunderground, says Haiyan will likely be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year.
     

    The typhoon will be named Yolanda when it enters the Philippines.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Haiyan is now a category 5 Super Typhoon with winds of 140kts according to the last JTWC update. However, I think Haiyan could be stronger than this or getting stornger than this. I feel so sorry for those in the path of this fierce beast!

     

    post-1820-0-89499400-1383764780_thumb.jp

     

    Palau, the island south of Haiyan in the image, may be spared the strongest winds as the eye passes to the north, a very close shave indeed. The rains here are obviously of great concern at the current time. The Philippines look to be in the firing line from the most dangerous winds and rain however.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    If this is anything to go by, it might be a record breaker. I can't help but think that they may be overestimating the intensity just a little bit though. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/HAIYAN_Y-list.txt

     

    JMA go for a peak intensity of 895mb, shich would still make it the strongest storm of the season so far. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

     

     

     

    It's a beauty. My thoughts will be with the people who live in the Phillipines in the coming days.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    JTWC have upped the winds to 150kts in their latest advisory, which makes Haiyan the strongest tropical cyclone of the year worldwide by their estimates. JMA expect a peak of 895mb, which is the strongest since Super Typhoon Megi in 2010. How I wish recon operated in this basin! It's a damn shame that it doesn't, especially when the West Pacific basin is home to the most frequent and intense cyclones in the world.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

    Met Office Storms â€@metofficestorms 13s Typhoon #Haiyan is now the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide for over a year - winds and central pressure near 170 mph and 910 mb

     

     

    Godd bles Philippines 

     

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/521703/mass-evacuation-ready

    Edited by lfcdude
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    Posted
  • Location: Hong Kong
  • Location: Hong Kong

    Following this one closely..James Reynolds a.k.a. Typhoon Hunter has travelled with a couple of other Mets to the expected eye location.

     

    A note on the intensities given by the USA...they are 1-min sustained, JMA uses 10-min sustained, which is where the disparity comes from.

    JMA is the official agency of this basin so there figures should be used (however I, and a lot of other people prefer the JTWC).

     

    This is an incredible storm, and how they cannot justify Recon in this basin is beyond me.  This is much likely stronger than the analysis techniques, and wouldnt be completely unreasonable if 160+ knots was seen out of this.

     

    I pray for the Phillipines.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Still a 150kt cat 5 Super Typhoon this morning:

     

    post-1820-0-73481200-1383808413_thumb.jp

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Still gaining strength!

     

     

    Posted Image

     

    Super typhoon Haiyan hits Category 5, an extremely serious threat to Philippines

     

    The western Pacific storm Haiyan has intensified without interruption since Sunday and is now a dangerous Category 5 super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds exceeding 160 mph.  It is on a path due west, and landfall Friday in the central Philippines is inevitable.
     
    Haiyan – known as Yolanda in the Philippines – is likely the strongest storm to form on the planet this year. “Based on satellite imagery, [Haiyan's] the strongest storm I’ve seen since Bopha (2012),†says Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics. Super typhoon Bopha, whose peak winds reached 175 mph, caused hundreds of fatalities on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao in December 2012.
     
    Maue says it’s possible Haiyan’s maximum sustained winds have reached 180 mph. “[The] system has developed to almost max intensity for a cyclone,†notes a NOAA bulletin. Officially, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts additional strengthening over the next day, but with the storm near its theoretical maximum strength – it’s more likely it has leveled off. As it continues westward over the Philippine Sea, its inner core may re-organize through what’s known as an eyewall replacement cycle, which would briefly weaken the storm. But water temperatures are very warm along Haiyan’s path, so significant weakening is unlikely.

     

    At landfall – predicted to occur around 0-6 UTC Friday (Friday morning local time in Manila) – the storm is forecast to have maximum sustained winds around 155 mph – equivalent to a high-end category 4 hurricane. The storm is currently in the vicinity of Yap and Palau, where a 72 mph wind gust was recently recorded.

     

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    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/06/super-typhoon-haiyan-hits-category-5-an-extremely-serious-threat-to-philippines/

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Now touted as one of the years strongest Typhoons, plans are being carried out to move people in the path of Haiyan:

     

    Thousands Flee Before Big Typhoon Hits Philippines

     

    Thousands of people evacuated villages in the central Philippines on Thursday before one of the year's strongest typhoons strikes the region, including a province devastated by an earthquake last month. Typhoon Haiyan has sustained winds of 215 kilometers (134 miles) per hour and ferocious gusts of 250 kph (155 mph) and could strengthen over the Pacific Ocean before slamming the eastern province of Samar early Friday, government forecasters said.

     
    The U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii said it was the strongest tropical cyclone in the world this year, although Cyclone Phailin, which hit eastern India on Oct. 12, packed winds of up to 222 kph (138 mph) and stronger gusts. Facing another possible disaster, President Benigno Aquino III warned people to leave high-risk areas, including 100 coastal communities where forecasters said the storm surge could reach up to 23 feet (7 meters). He urged seafarers to stay away from choppy seas.
     
    Aquino urged people to stay calm and avoid panic-buying of basic goods and assured the public of war-like preparations: Three C-130 air force cargo planes and 32 military helicopters and planes were on standby, along with 20 navy ships. "No typhoon can bring Filipinos to their knees if we'll be united," he said in a nationally televised address. Governors and mayors were supervising the evacuation of landslide- and flood-prone communities in several provinces where the typhoon is expected to pass, said Eduardo del Rosario, head of the government's main disaster-response agency.
     
    Even in southern Misamis Oriental province located farther from the typhoon's expected track, more than 12,000 people abandoned their homes in six coastal towns and a mountain municipality that have been hit by past landslides, said Misamis Oriental Governor Yevgeny Emano, who also suspended school classes. Aquino ordered officials to aim for zero casualties, a goal often not met in an archipelago lashed by about 20 storms each year, most of them deadly and destructive. Haiyan is the 24th such storm to hit the Philippines this year.
     
    Edgardo Chatto, the governor of Bohol island province in the central Philippines, where an earthquake in October killed more than 200 people, said that soldiers, police and rescue units were helping displaced residents, including thousands still in small tents, move to shelters. Bohol is not forecast to get a direct hit but is expected to be battered by strong wind and rain, government forecaster Jori Loiz said. Army troops were helping transport food packs and other relief goods in hard-to-reach communities and rescue helicopters are on stand-by, the military said. "My worst fear is that the eye of this typhoon will hit us. I hope we will be spared," Chatto told The Associated Press by telephone.
     
    Haiyan was forecast to barrel through the country's central region Friday and Saturday before it blows toward the South China Sea over the weekend, heading toward Vietnam. It was not expected to directly hit the densely-populated capital of Manila farther north, but residents in the flood-prone city were jittery, with one suburb suspending classes and authorities ordering giant tarpaulin billboard ads to be removed along the main highway.
     

    http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/thousands-flee-big-typhoon-hits-philippines-20813055

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    They are upping the wind estimates considerably - T numbers at 8 and 165 knot winds.

     

    MANILA - Survivors of a deadly earthquake fled their tent shelters Thursday as mass evacuations got under way in the Philippines ahead of a super typhoon that was strengthening in the Pacific Ocean.Authorities warned Typhoon Haiyan, with wind gusts exceeding 330 kilometres (200 miles) an hour, could cause major damage across a vast area of the central and southern Philippines when it made landfall on Friday."This is a very dangerous typhoon, local officials know where the vulnerable areas are and have given instructions on evacuations," state weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar told AFP."There are not too many mountains on its path to deflect the force of impact, making it more dangerous."Haiyan had maximum sustained winds on Thursday morning of 278 kilometres per hour, and gusts of 333 kilometres per hour, according to the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.The Philippines is battered by an average of 20 major storms or typhoons each year, many of them deadly, but Haiyan's wind strenth would make it the strongest for 2013.The state weather service also warned the typhoon was continuing to intensify.Escullar said the typhoon, which was advancing with a giant, 600-kilometre front, was expected to hit areas still recovering from a deadly 2011 storm and a 7.1-magnitude quake last month.They include the central island of Bohol, the epicentre of the earthquake that killed more than 200 people, where a local official said at least 5,000 people were still living in tents while waiting for new homes."The provincial governor has ordered local disaster officials to ensure that pre-emptive evacuations are done, both for those living in tents as well as those in flood-prone areas," the official, Bohol provincial administrator Alfonso Damalerio, told AFP.

     

    http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/11/07/13/mass-evacuations-philippines-ahead-super-typhoon

    Edited by Gael_Force
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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    James Reynolds (typhoon fury) twitter feed.

     

    https://twitter.com/typhoonfury

     

    This is a bit alarming.

     

    James Reynolds â€@typhoonfury 3h

    Doing recon south of Tacloban, lots of extremely vulnerable coastal communities with no signs of evacuating residents #YolandaPH #Haiyan

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    It's a monster. BBC forecasters saying 'spare a thought' etc. :(

     

    It's bound to be horribly destructive in the Philippines unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    WOW. JUST WOW. JTWC have upped the winds to 165kts this afternoon, which is the highest for any storm I've personally tracked. I never expected Haiyan to get quite this strong!

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