A Winter 2013/14 outlook.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yes a result of filtering out all the years since the 1960's which didn't show all 3 variables i looked at.

That's how it came out as you can see from the full set of data.

In a way it resulted in a very clear picture as only 2 Winters to study.

 

Interesting methodology Phil, I effectively did the opposite with mine, including years which weren't *that* close a match and then weighting the anomalies to those which were closer, but with similar results actually, at least for the second half of winter.Best of luck and I hope your December forecast is closer to the mark than mine!

[phil nw.]

Interesting methodology Phil, I effectively did the opposite with mine, including years which weren't *that* close a match and then weighting the anomalies to those which were closer, but with similar results actually, at least for the second half of winter.

Best of luck and I hope your December forecast is closer to the mark than mine!

Thanks Lomond.

 

Yes it looks simplistic but seems a logical method,whether it comes anywhere close or not.

I like simple methods-at my age the old brain tired easily and has been known to make the odd mistake,lol.

 

Anyway good luck with your effort too.

[swfc]

Great read phil and well set out for us lesser humans pal.Good luck with the forecast 

[damianslaw]

Just taken a look at the synoptic charts for late November 1993 and 1978, and both saw notably very cold weather but from quite different synoptics.

 

Nov 93 saw an intense build of heights out of russia nosing there way across scandi to produce a snowy bitter easterly which fought off the atlantic until early Dec.

 

Nov 78 saw a roaring westerly replaced by a bitter direct northerly and then northeasterly feed thanks to the build of mid atlantic heights in towards Greenland and then into scandi.

 

There are certainly some comparisons between what the ECM is suggesting this eve and the charts from the latter part of Nov 78.

[syed2878]

thanks phill got it working good forecast hope it comes off.