Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Cloud 10]

ECM 168hrs!

 

      

 

I thought you had completely lost the plot there Nick,but it seems not. 

[bradymk]

ECM 192 is a great chart i think?, carrying on from this morning's run, still think it may be being a bit quick with its evolution but at least its consistent. 

Edited December 2, 2013 by bradythemole

[swfc]

Amazing ecm chart at 192 hours.the only place across northern hemisphere not under bitter weather is the uk!!! 

[March Blizzard]

+8 850's at t168 for some SE remains the coldest spot in the UK, scandi high continues to build

 

+4C uppers in Iceland and -8C uppers in Crete...you've gotta laugh.

[MR EXTREMES]

and t216 would be boom low undercutting love the ecm lol

[Barry12]

and t216 would be boom low undercutting love the ecm lol

 

BOOM loads of rain

 

 

[bradymk]

The uppers may not look cold, but it would be cold at the surface for most of the UK towards the end of this run. In time, the cold pool would move westwards. Another great run from ECM. 

 

 

BOOM loads of rain

 

 

 

You would see the cold pool start to move further westwards if the run went past 240. 

Edited December 2, 2013 by bradythemole

[Barry12]

The uppers may not look cold, but it would be v cold at the surface for most of the UK towards the end of this run. Another great run from ECM. 

 

It's got potential, but no one would be happy at that point with cold rain.

[SE Blizzards]

JMA @ 192 

 

 

[Barry12]

It develops in just 6 days time though which is the good thing

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Barry95

[bradymk]

It's got potential, but no one would be happy at that point with cold rain.

You need precipitation first for any "cold rain", that chart would be dry and cold

[MR EXTREMES]

surprisingly quiet in here

 

its a great run by the ecm and the jma is good to

Edited December 2, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Barry12]

surprisingly quiet in here

 

its a great run by the ecm and the jma is good to

 

Probably because it's basically backed the GFS in regards to the northerly. But great potential for an Easterly though.

[Summer Sun]

t240 sees the high just starting to edge up towards Greenland

 

 

 

850's remain average to above average

 

[bradymk]

Nice step towards a possible easterly scenario. JMA, ECM and GEM all show it this evening. GEM and ECM ens showed good support for this scenario this morning too. Only dissapointment is the UKMO, oh yeah and the Globally Failed System (GFS)

[swfc]

The position or orientation of the high sits it just to far south at 240 hrs for it to be of any interest tbh. the 850s are very poor from a cold aspect.looks good towards greece and turkey tho!!!

Edited December 2, 2013 by swfc

[Paul]

Here's the latest forecast for the week ahead with Jo Farrow - a brief but very windy, and cold blast on the way from midweek..

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5548;sess=

[snowice]

 How many times have we seen a failed Easterly,its two runs in a row now so its better than nothing.

 

As Nick said this afternoon last years failed Easterly broke Hearts,fingers crossed!

 

 

 

It develops in just 6 days time though which is the good thing

 

[shotski]

t240 sees the high just starting to edge up towards Greenland

 

 

 

850's remain average to above average

 

 

OMG, the paralells with winter 62-63 just go on and on. the NH plots just look so similar.

 

 

[AWD]

Timing wise, the EC Det is more inline with the 0z EC ens that clustered for the Scandi high this morning. Much more plausible timing wise than the progressive 0z EC Det.

13th - 16th Dec IF we are to get something. Still a mega mighty IF though.

EC ens will be interesting later.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

The 12z ECM has shifted the idea of a Scandy/Russian high a bit further East than some earlier modelling. I wouldn't say that the idea is dead in the water as this kind of feature is notoriously difficult to model but again, it isn't looking like a firm favourite either. I'm glad there is some support for the idea from a couple of the smaller models this evening otherwise i think i would have given up on the idea personally. Worth keeping an eye on IMHO but lets avoid getting hung up on a need for immediate freezing conditions. Lets also avoid writing off winter for the moment as well can we  I do find what the GFS is showing this evening very boring indeed, however, there is a long way to go and quite often things happen from seemingly nowhere at a fairly quick rate of knots.  

Edited December 2, 2013 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[Barry12]

BOM day 10

 

[SnowObsessor90]

I'd personally back the GFS in FI over whatever the ECM shows, recent events have shown that people can no longer  cast off the GFS so easily for it's 'eastward bias", the ECM is the joke now if anything.

Edited December 2, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[nick sussex]

I'm exhausted already! So regarding this possible easterly or even possibly eastern based negative NAO, the trend across the models is agreed on one key feature , that energy heading south into the mid Atlantic.

 

The ECM is interesting if you take it at face value because this might go on to develop high pressure more to the north, the suggestion from it is that it might drop a chunk of the PV south to our east.

 

Theres a long way to go but certainly a chance this evening that any milder interlude might be shortlived.

[Purga]

Whatever will Nick Sussex make of the ECM??

Will it or won't it?