Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Mr Frost]

Turkey on the patio?

 

A bit too wet here but down South coldies could make the best out of a bad situation...

[Summer Sun]

What a turn around from GFS this afternoon from the Christmas day storm to a very quiet and mild one

 

Edited December 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[UV-RAY]

What a turn around from GFS this afternoon from the Christmas day storm to a very quiet and mild one

 

Lol, yes it's the polar opposite of what's been shown previously. A new trend or one for the bin?

[Summer Sun]

Lol, yes it's the polar opposite of what's been shown previously. A new trend or one for the bin?

 

Well its at t240 now so its within the range of ECM and GEM its a case now of wait and see what we have by 7pm

 

The ensemble run will also show us if its for the bin or not

Edited December 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6585/gfsnh-0-192_qoj0.png

The PV round about. I wish someone would tell it where to get off. Shockingly flat run.

[gottolovethisweather]

What a turn around from GFS this afternoon from the Christmas day storm to a very quiet and mild one

 

 

If that first chart verified and to boot I hear that dreaded phrase "At least it will be mild" on the TV forecast on Christmas Day I will seriously SCREAM. Yes let's face it, even at ten days range a green Christmas looks a good bet but please TV forecasters, if you're listening, "DO NOT utter those words", any day other than the big day itself is bad enough.

Edited December 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[shedhead]

Again I'm saying the overall picture is not one of mild or cold and with time the jet does look like dropping further and further south. Of course this all FI and by next week the trend could be something completely different, good or bad.

I'd like to think you are right SI, but we've been here many times before with this kind of pattern, so I'll believe it when I see it.  I'd say the current outputs still have a very clear overall bias towards mild over cold, equivalent at the other end of the spectum to a fortnight of strong winds directly from the Steppes. 

[Bristawl Si]

Looking at the models this last week and it seems we're heading for a snowless 1st half of Winter down here.

There seems to be no hint of anything otherwise (imby).

Even in colder, snowier winter periods, like '78-'87, we had 'non-event' winters, in terms of cold and snow, so no real surprise here.

Maybe we'll get a colder and snowier second half of winter......or not.

[winterof79]

What a turn around from GFS this afternoon from the Christmas day storm to a very quiet and mild one

 

which is why i do not get hung up on a model that runs four times daily.

[on the coast]

Quite a mild run from the GFS and less stormy than previous runs. Has it picked a new trend? Wonder what ECM will show. By the way where is the Christmas Theme for the forum?

[Bobby]

Surely this GFS 12z will be a rogue outlier. Nothing like the previous various model runs or ensembles. Yes, one for the bin I think

Edited December 15, 2013 by Bobby

[Summer Sun]

UKMO's take on things later in the week

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Higher solar flux so more activity On the sun,so strong vortex and the asores heights has been shown for days it was only a matter of time before it would shift along through southern England into Europe so it's simple the ukmo outlook sounds spot on.Still going to be wintry at times in the north.Spells of dryer and frost at nights at times in the south. 

[IDO]

Surely this GFS 12z will be a rogue outlier. Nothing like the previous various model runs or ensembles. Yes, one for the bin I think

There was only one GEFS member on the 06z run that had a 3/4 day spell of HP. So likely to be an outlier but ens. should tell us if it is a trend. Edited December 15, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[gottolovethisweather]

By the way where is the Christmas Theme for the forum?

 

What the one with all the relentless rain and wind.   Best PM Paul I suppose.

 

On the theme of PMs, perhaps one or two others could undertake the same actions instead of cluttering up this thread, that's what PM is for after all, thank you kindly.

 

In order for me to remain on topic and I apologise for my light-hearted moment in my previous post, check out the 12z UKMO chart for Thursday, nice one. Same potential as the GFS so now its over to the ECM to continue the theme of some wintriness, albeit a short blip in an otherwise mild spell.

 

Edited December 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[legritter]

Yes i would expect many changes to the GFS predictions for Christmas period and beyond and at 4 runs per day we could see everything including the kitchen sink ,two hours till ECM is out will this keep us glued , but a lot of weather to come and interesting times so its eyes down gang ,

[UV-RAY]

Yes i would expect many changes to the GFS predictions for Christmas period and beyond and at 4 runs per day we could see everything including the kitchen sink ,two hours till ECM is out will this keep us glued , but a lot of weather to come and interesting times so its eyes down gang ,

Bar HLB, that's exactly what we will see.

[Captain Shortwave]

There was only one GEFS member on the 06z run that had a 3/4 day spell of HP. So likely to be an outlier but ens. should tell us if it is a trend.

Well the stratospheric PV was forecast to ease off a little if I can recall Nick Sussex's posts from a few days back. If the PV is over Greenland then this easing of the westerly winds could result in heights building through Europe again. Given the metoffice's forecasts longer term, this would be a pretty valid route to bring drier and cooler weather into the south east whilst keeping the north and west wetter and more varied.

Though another Christmas day of mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in double figures (would be 3 years on the bounce I believe) doesn't sound appetising at all 

Edited December 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble at the 23rd starting to show the euro high edging towards southern England

 

 

Op run

 

[Summer Sun]

Its fair to say GEM isn't following GFS's idea at the moment with it still going for a very unsettled Christmas period unlike GFS

 

 

In the mean time the GFS ensemble is supporting the Op run for pressure rising over the Christmas period

 

 

Op run

 

Edited December 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[cooling climate]

A poor start to the evening from a cold perspective with a hideous rounded PV developing in the GFS higher resolution output.  Flat upstream and with no positive heights developing near the pole or help from the Pacific side this is pretty hideous stuff!

 

The jet axis has no chance of becoming more favourable with this type of set up.

Agreed really poor charts. I do not think it gets much worse than this from a cold perspective.

Looking at the 200mb temp anomaly plot look very exciting but looking at the troposhere/

stratosphere flux charts it looks as though nothing is getting past 70 degrees north.

Maybe of more interest is what is happening at 10mb. could be something to watch and

then again could be nothing.

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS ensemble at the 23rd starting to show the euro high edging towards southern England

 

 

Op run

 

 

Just don't say those six words, Gavin.   Please find us something more inspiring, I beg you, then again "at least it may be dry?" on Christmas day.

Edited December 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[IDO]

The 12z Control run also picking up this temporary 3-4 day ridging;  for Christmas it  is also MILD:  

 

 

Edited December 15, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Mucka]

I really wouldn't take the pressure rise from the South around Christmas, hinted at in 12z output, at face value.

Even if it is on to something there is nothing to say exactly how that pressure rise will manifest itself, it may be further West or Further East and actually aid our chances of getting some blocking going.

It may well have even disappeared completely on tomorrows output.

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble shows a settled festive period before the high slowly slips away to our SE