South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[Kent Snow]

Clear skies now in Canterbury after mostly cloudy and windy day. Temperature dropping off nicely. Might even get a rare frost, lol.

[snowrye]

oh dear,rader have picked up the toys currently being thrown out of the mad thread,when will they learn

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lol.. Typical

[john pike]

hi all

 

heres ukmo at 144

 

now look at gfs

 

i still think we are in the best place for the incoming

 

and there is nowt wrong with that ukmo chart

 

if ecm follows this it should not look to sorry for us

 

anyway back soon

[Croydondazz]

Hi allThanks all for your birthday wishesHi bjaykentOff to do the housework now :-)I think i will have a drink then do the fax charts tonightThat should be fun reading that tomorrow morningI think i will wait until after ecm has come out today with ukmoAlthough i still feel we are in a good part of the country when the colder air sets inEnjoy the rideJohn

Happy birthday john hope you have had a good day, enjoy your drink tonightDarren

[john pike]

thanks croydon

 

john

[Southender]

My advice would be to avoid the MAD thread until after the weekend.

 

There will be many toys in there.

 

Next week's possible colder theme would just be a taster anyway IMO.

 

More patience required. As I mentioned this morning, late Jan into Feb looks the best bet for proper winter to arrive. Hopefully helped by a nice warming in the Strat.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I'm also amused by the amount of angst and over-emotional claptrap in the MAD thread.  Really, the only reason that I'm concerned about the models switching from a cold and possibly snowy pattern to chilly and very wet is that so many people, several of whom are in the area covered by this thread, need drier weather for a while.

 

P.S.  Happy birthday, John - the more the models chop and change, the more I thank you for your discussion of the Fax charts which deal with the more readily-predictable short-term forecast.

Edited January 9, 2014 by chrisbell-nottheforecaster

[lawrenk]

As has been said several times pretty chaotic stuff in the Mod Thread.

 

As someone who'd like to learn more,  I can't help feeling it would be helpful for everyone if certain posters refrained from commenting after every frame of each run and perhaps made just one, considered post once the whole run's completed. Obviously the likes of SM and Nick Sussex are not included in this assessment.  

[JennyJane1]

suddenly turned distinctly chilly in here, got my big socks on, and a mug of hot chocolate.May be electric blanket time tonight.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

As has been said several times pretty chaotic stuff in the Mod Thread.

 

As someone who'd like to learn more,  I can't help feeling it would be helpful for everyone if certain posters refrained from commenting after every frame of each run and perhaps made just one, considered post once the whole run's completed. Obviously the likes of SM and Nick Sussex are not included in this assessment.  

 

I'm giving-up reading it - yes, there are valuable posts from people such as Tamara, John, Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, John Holmes and (occasionally) a certain Mr. Ferguson, but there's so much dross to wade through to get there that it's too time-consuming.

[SteveCoops]

Overnight 15-16 Jan there's an inch of rain forecast - if only it was a bit colder!

[john pike]

i bet that gfs run was a warm outlier

 

just to wind the mod thread up

 

i think we should have 2 threads

 

1 up to 144

 

then another the rest to look at the further outlook

 

would make things a lot easier to read

 

back soon with the ensembles

[hernebaylooby]

hi all

 

heres ukmo at 144

 

now look at gfs

 

i still think we are in the best place for the incoming

 

and there is nowt wrong with that ukmo chart

 

if ecm follows this it should not look to sorry for us

 

anyway back soon

Happy birthday john xx

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=314&y=153&run=12&runpara=0&col=1&type=1&ext=1

 

gfs short term pressure charts

 

have a guess

 

thats exactly what it is

thanks herne bay

[Sussex Jules]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=314&y=153&run=12&runpara=0&col=1&type=1&ext=1

 

gfs short term pressure charts

 

have a guess

 

thats exactly what it is

thanks herne bay

Happy Birthday John, now just because it's your birthday it doesn't mean you can get your crayons out and doodle like that.

[john pike]

hi sussex

 

thanks

 

if they let me loose on them graphs (temp wise)

 

would not be low enough

[Steve C]

I've just spent an entertaining 10 minutes trawling through the exasperated posts on the MAD thread. :lol:

 

Anyone would think the weather models had impish spirits and they were deliberately trying to cause stress, the way some people speak about them.

 

Talking about models having 'egg on face' etc. :lol:

[lawrenk]

Happy birthday JP.

 

Could you make the ECM and the Pub Run snowfests please.

 

Many Thanks.

[john pike]

Happy birthday JP.

 

Could you make the ECM and the Pub Run snowfests please.

 

Many Thanks.

 

after a couple of drinks tonight

 

it may be possible

I've just spent an entertaining 10 minutes trawling through the exasperated posts on the MAD thread.

 

Anyone would think the weather models had impish spirits and they were deliberately trying to cause stress, the way some people speak about them.

 

Talking about models having 'egg on face' etc.

hi steve

 

its like blaming the models for all the rain we have had

[Jason T]

Anyway whilst we await for the ECM. Anyone fancy watching NASA launch a rocket live, Well its better than viewing the GFS.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html#.Us7h555_v4Y

 

 

Happy Birthday again JP  

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=8&ech=6&carte=0&mode=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=8&ech=192&carte=0&mode=1

 

number 8 please

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=320&y=151&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

thats the 2m temp set from gfs ensembles

 

think black line is the main run

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=148&run=12&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

and heres the full pressure set

 

think more runs are probably needed still

Edited January 9, 2014 by john pike

[john pike]

hi bjay

 

i was thinking this

 

 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2014 by john pike

[Captain Shortwave]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=8&ech=6&carte=0&mode=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=8&ech=192&carte=0&mode=1

 

number 8 please

That run looks very close to the onset of the cold spell in March, and we all know how long that lasted for