Atlantic Storms February 2014

[Snowshine]

I think the Midlands has been lucky SO FAR this winter at avoiding the worst of the winds, all of the storms that have passed by have caused minimal wind damage and less flood damage than expected. Of course flood damage has still occurred here, and certainly caused distruption, but most areas in The Midlands did not receive an Amber Rain Warning at all this winter, and some areas had no wind warnings whatsoever. This surprises me because the storms that passed by were not that far north from the Midlands and bought a record minimum pressure to several areas, such as 966mb, probably lower than 1987 and 1990.

Today's storm was the worst this winter in most of the Midland's areas, with a maximum wind gust of 55mph recorded in Coventry, strongest since 2007 according to Bablake. Got quite a shock checking the updated XC forecast after seeing Friday next week could see the strongest wind gust since October 2002, or possibly the strongest ever recorded in my area.

Friday will be kept a close eye on, and Wednesday. The distruption this storm could bring could be disastrous, especially after recent storms making tree roots weaker than usual and saturated.

[stevofunnelcl]

No easing of the wind for me, and no, i ain't been on the Brussel Sprouts !!

Even stronger gusts late evening / overnight

Gusting high 40's into 50's mph during the day Saturday

Overnight, they swung to the west, with gusts going into the 60's mph

 

Winds been blasting now, since they picked up during Saturday morning

[The PIT]

Peak yesterday 47 mph and sol far today 46 mph so no storm here once again. Looks a quieter week coming up though possible feature on the 13th but otherwise wet at times.

[IanR]

non of these storms have really affected here, cant measure the speed but certain it hasn't gusted anything past 40 mph in any of the stronger gusts Most of the time it feels even less than 25 mph

 

Just flag flappers these storms

 

Certainly not concerned about how severe any storms look on the models, not for here, I can write the script

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday's rain warning updated this morning

 

Issued at: 1053 on Sun 9 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0015 on Tue 11 Feb 2014

Valid to: 2345 on Tue 11 Feb 2014

 

Further spells of rain, heavy at times, and accompanied by strong winds are expected during Monday night and Tuesday. The public should be aware of the risk of further disruption due to flooding. This is an update to the Alert to include some rainfall amounts. A further update is likely on Monday

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another area of low pressure and its associated fronts are likely to affect the UK during Monday night and Tuesday, bringing a further spell of heavy rain and strong winds, particularly to southern areas. There remains considerably uncertainty in the track and timing of this low pressure system, but 10 to 20 mm rainfall is likely quite widely, with over 30mm possible across parts of South Wales and southwest England. With ongoing flooding in some places, any further rain will only add to the problems. Very gusty winds may be an added hazard in places.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392076800&regionName=uk

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Tuesday's rain warning updated this morning Issued at: 1053 on Sun 9 Feb 2014Valid from: 0015 on Tue 11 Feb 2014Valid to: 2345 on Tue 11 Feb 2014 Further spells of rain, heavy at times, and accompanied by strong winds are expected during Monday night and Tuesday. The public should be aware of the risk of further disruption due to flooding. This is an update to the Alert to include some rainfall amounts. A further update is likely on Monday Chief Forecaster's assessment Another area of low pressure and its associated fronts are likely to affect the UK during Monday night and Tuesday, bringing a further spell of heavy rain and strong winds, particularly to southern areas. There remains considerably uncertainty in the track and timing of this low pressure system, but 10 to 20 mm rainfall is likely quite widely, with over 30mm possible across parts of South Wales and southwest England. With ongoing flooding in some places, any further rain will only add to the problems. Very gusty winds may be an added hazard in places. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392076800&regionName=uk

Not more rain some more storms showing during the week to before Fridays

[tinybill]

Not more rain some more storms showing during the week to before Fridays

well  the  south/south east want that like a hole  in  the  head   with  now the Thames valley in grave  danger  of  flooding  this week things could turn much worse  by the  end  of  the  week

[Rustynailer]

Regarding sea state this storm was less powerful than the last storm on the 5th, which gave an more of an angry sea than 1987 around here, I would say this storm was in the top 4 or 5 this Winter out of thirty odd LOW's .....Spoiled for choice and they all tend to blend together there have been so many stormy seas, landslips and floods.

 

I think the storms are worse on spring tides like the one on the 5th, the one coming on the 14th is on a spring tide if it stays as shown on some outputs it will be as bad as the 5th February possibly, with big waves from the South a real possibility, the southerly waves cut the mustard regarding damage as they hit most southern coasts square on. Portland being an exception like a few others.

 

I am surprised with the fury of some of these storms, they spin so fast, I am imagine one day one will drag down lots of cold air and cause a right old blizzard, I am sure that is what happened in 1994 around here.....

Edited February 9, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Mapantz]

Still an interesting week ahead from a severe weather enthusiasts point of view, lots to keep an eye on, especially Friday!

[Rustynailer]

well  the  south/south east want that like a hole  in  the  head   with  now the Thames valley in grave  danger  of  flooding  this week things could turn much worse  by the  end  of  the  week

That huge flood plain is capable of surprising people, the layers of silt from previous floods in history are no doubt found in test boreholes up and down that river and the Severn, the Trent, the Mersey, etc, etc.

A bit like Japan with a Tsunami the locals forget after three generations.....It is fact all over the world sadly, 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

My thoughts on this week..

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79352-south-east-englandeast-anglia-regional-weather-discussion-070214/?p=2922255

 

Anyone seen this  

 

[Snowshine]

Friday has been downgraded... Just to upgrade Wednesday.

[Mapantz]

When you see it....

[Matty M]

Something has been overlooked. There is big potential for a devestating storm Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

Some deeply disturbing outcomes possible.

 

Only a 30-40% chance at the moment but the 12z could really show a serious system.

 

And it is only 84-96hrs out.

 

Few different routes for the system..

 

 

Edited February 9, 2014 by Matty M

[Cyclonic]

Something has been overlooked. There is big potential for a devestating storm Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

Some deeply disturbing outcomes possible.

 

Only a 30-40% chance at the moment but the 12z could really show a serious system.

 

And it is only 84-96hrs out.

 

Few different routes for the system..

 

 

Flipping heck, O'rly, gawd, dont no what else to say other then    if this comes off

[hec1]

When you see it....

viewimage (3).png

hahahaha

[Eskimo]

When you see it....

viewimage (3).png

[Bobby]

Something has been overlooked. There is big potential for a devestating storm Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

Some deeply disturbing outcomes possible.

 

Only a 30-40% chance at the moment but the 12z could really show a serious system.

 

And it is only 84-96hrs out.

 

Few different routes for the system..

 

Yes an unstable looking setup next week with something nasty perhaps on several days. The difference is that rather mature depressions moving across the Atlantic the storms could be rapidly developing near or right over us, much harder to predict. I imagine the Met Office will be keeping a concerned eye on next week.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Something has been overlooked. There is big potential for a devestating storm Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

Some deeply disturbing outcomes possible.

 

Only a 30-40% chance at the moment but the 12z could really show a serious system.

 

And it is only 84-96hrs out.

 

Few different routes for the system..

 

 

Wow this is serious of it comes off!!

Edited February 9, 2014 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[Summer Sun]

Early snow warning out for Tuesday

 

Issued at: 1229 on Sun 9 Feb 2014

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 11 Feb 2014

Valid to: 1500 on Tue 11 Feb 2014

 

A band of rain, sleet and snow will spread east across Scotland on Tuesday morning. Most of the snow will be on high ground above 200-300 m where 5-10 cm may accumulate in places, but there is also a risk of some wet snow to low levels. Clearer weather with wintry showers will follow from the west later in the morning, these showers again bringing some accumulations, especially over high ground. In addition, as temperatures fall in the evening, icy stretches will form on untreated roads. Drivers are advised to take extra care and be aware of the possibility of some difficult driving conditions and some minor travel disruption.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A frontal system will cross the UK from west to east on Tuesday. As it encounters colder air across northern Britain, a spell of snow is likely. This will be mainly focused across high ground, but some wet snow is possible at low levels for a time. There is some uncertainty over the track and intensity of this weather system and hence this Alert is likely to be updated on Monday.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392076800&regionName=uk

[Thunder Snow]

Severe flood warnings coming in for the river thames

[Bobby]

The Met Office have released an analysis of the stormy wet weather this winter, well worth a read

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf

 

Although no individual storm can be regarded as exceptional, the clustering and persistence of the storms is highly unusual. December and January were exceptionally wet. For England and Wales this was one of, if not the most, exceptional periods of winter rainfall in at least 248 years. The two-month total (December + January) of 372.2mm for the southeast and central southern England region is the wettest any 2-month period in the series from 1910.

 

During January and into February the tracks of the storms fell at a relatively low latitude, giving severe gales along the south and west coasts and pushing the bulk of the ocean wave energy toward the southwest of Ireland and England. Peak wave periods were exceptionally long; each wave carried a lot of energy and was able to inflict significant damage on coastal infrastructure.

 

In a series from 1883, flow rates on the River Thames remained exceptionally high for longer than in any previous flood episode. Correspondingly, floodplain inundation s were extensive and protracted. The severe weather in the UK coincided with exceptionally cold weather in Canada and the USA. These extreme weather events on both sides of the Atlantic were linked to a persistent pattern of perturbations to the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and North America. There is a strong association with the stormy weather experienced in the UK during December and January and the up-stream perturbations to the jet stream over North America and the North Pacific. 

The major changes in the Pacific jet stream were driven by a persistent pattern of enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region. The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to an unusually strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi - Biennial Oscillation (QBO) , which in turn has driven a very deep polar vortex and strong polar night jet.

[tinybill]

Severe flood warnings coming in for the river thames

plus the Thames valley

[Thunder Snow]

plus the Thames valley

14 now

[Bobby]

plus the Thames valley

 

Crikey 16 severe flooding warnings at the moment, 14 in the south East.