E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Don]

34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As time goes on, I'm also becoming more confident that winter 20/21 will be a big one.

Needless to say, I really hope winter 20/21 will be a big one, but we need the SST's in the north eastern Pacific to remain in a cooler state and a tripole signal (warm/cold/warm) to form in the north Atlantic.  Also, the stalling of the E-QBO is a bit of a concern, not to mention the increasing uphill struggle with climate change.  That said, I think next winter already has more in its favour than 2019/20.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Needless to say, I really hope winter 20/21 will be a big one, but we need the SST's in the north eastern Pacific to remain in a cooler state and a tripole signal (warm/cold/warm) to form in the north Atlantic.  Also, the stalling of the E-QBO is a bit of a concern.  That said, I think next winter already has more in its favour than 2019/20.

Stalling is good, so long as it propagates successfully. Should give us a prime QBO state come winter (descending W'ly)

[Don]

43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Stalling is good, so long as it propagates successfully. Should give us a prime QBO state come winter (descending W'ly)

That’s the thing though, there is speculation that the E-QBO could fail as discussed in the stratosphere thread.  However, as I said in that thread, a case of wait and see.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Don

[summer blizzard]

[damianslaw]

15 hours ago, CreweCold said:

My thoughts have been pretty clear since February-ish with regards to summer. I think we'll see a mean -ve pressure anomaly limpeted close to the UK across the 3 summer months. 

This isn't based solely on ENSO state but also the fact we're just emerging from solar min.

The latest GLOSEA flip to unsettled is telling IMO and last time I checked, the averaged CFS model was also going for a UK trough.

As time goes on, I'm also becoming more confident that winter 20/21 will be a big one.

Mid atlantic high scenario then, with the trough squeezed down through the UK from the NW, cool northwesterly airstream?

[karyo]

The updated model outlook is still going for enso neutral summer and autumn. 

CFSv2 continues to go for La Nina by early autumn but most models are not keen on this scenario.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[B87]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

The updated model outlook is still going for enso neutral summer and autumn. 

CFSv2 continues to go for La Nina by early autumn but most models are not keen on this scenario.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Let's hope it stays neutral through the summer, then! 

[johnholmes]

re this CC

The latest GLOSEA flip to unsettled is telling IMO

 

To me, looking at the March and April Europe predictions from UK Met I think that is a bit OTT, for what seems just a slight change of emphasis for June to August?

[Don]

7 hours ago, karyo said:

The updated model outlook is still going for enso neutral summer and autumn. 

CFSv2 continues to go for La Nina by early autumn but most models are not keen on this scenario.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Hopefully we will have a weak La Nina for winter at least!

[karyo]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Hopefully we will have a weak La Nina for winter at least!

It is possible but I don't even dare to raise my hopes for winter haha

[summer blizzard]

You need five trimesters to get an event declared so summer was always difficult however if we start hitting weak Nina values it will be interesting.

[Don]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

It is possible but I don't even dare to raise my hopes for winter haha

Me neither, but you never know! 

[summer blizzard]

Sub surface is now net negative.

[damianslaw]

Would welcome any thoughts and forecasts from latest developments regarding ENSO and possible impacts for the summer.

[summer blizzard]

[damianslaw]

On 05/05/2020 at 00:30, summer blizzard said:

Thanks, please explain what this shows.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks, please explain what this shows.

Basically shows the progression of negative sub-sea anomalies across the Pacific over time. Now under the critical ENSO zone.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Don]

Was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive during the winter period just gone?  I ask as there was a lot of talk about it.

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, Don said:

Was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive during the winter period just gone?  I ask as there was a lot of talk about it.

Hit record positive values the second half of last year (probably contributed to the cool, wet second half of the year), by winter it had died off.

Edited May 10, 2020 by summer blizzard

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Hit record positive values the second half of last year (probably contributed to the cool, wet second half of the year), by winter it had died off.

Many say it was a major contributing factor to the mild wet winter, the damage was done in Autumn, lag effect.

[summer blizzard]

On 09/05/2020 at 19:56, Zak M said:

 

 

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Many say it was a major contributing factor to the mild wet winter, the damage was done in Autumn, lag effect.

Personally disagree myself. 

Although you can suggest a link to +AO conditions I personally think it had more to do with the nino standing wave taking over afterwards and often west of the dateline. A pretty unfavourable location.

We tend to get more luck in Nino's when the wave moves through the entire Pacific I've observed.

[Zak M]

28 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

 

Personally disagree myself. 

Although you can suggest a link to +AO conditions I personally think it had more to do with the nino standing wave taking over afterwards and often west of the dateline. A pretty unfavourable location.

We tend to get more luck in Nino's when the wave moves through the entire Pacific I've observed.

Wait what did I say in your post? Lol

[damianslaw]

Just echoing some others thinking. I hadnt even heard if the IOD until last winter, why was it never mentioned as a tele connection factor before?

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Wait what did I say in your post? Lol

I'd clicked you from the model thread but it wouldn't delete you.