Severe Atlantic storms February 2014

[vladthemert]

thanks rjbw that good news rain not to bad but still getting gusts

[TwisterGirl81]

On XC Weather it just said that Exeter Airport had a gust of 71MPH, if thats true its the highest gust this winter and the worst is still yet to come! Jesus

Edited February 14, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[Wet'n'Dry]

Kay Burley keeps chasing that army Major around Staines on Sky news, perhaps she has a crush on him 

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi everyone!

 

Been reading the forum for the past few weeks; it's been so much more informative than the media, and I've learnt a few things in the process. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to post all the info on the storms as they develop!

 

I'm based in Central London, and I have to admit to slightly looking forward to the storm tonight as we don't get much in the way of strong winds here. Currently though there's hardly any wind at all, but we've just had a torrential downpour which lasted for about an hour, then eased off, and has now stopped.

 

Welcome aboard NW towers Hirudine, I'm sure you'll enjoy your stay. Please do keep your reports coming.

[knightrider]

Sky gone very dark again here now!

[Hirudine]

Spoke too soon- we're starting to get a breeze here with some light gusts. Cloud cover is moving at quite a brisk pace.

 

Looks like some intense squall lines developing to the west of us going by the radar? I wonder if they'll make it this far.

[gottolovethisweather]

Ok folks ... to my eyes, GFS 12Z has slightly downgraded the storm and pushes it through faster. Also, inland gusts looking more like 60mph+ rather than 70mph+, big difference when it comes to damage potential.Obviously it's only one run and could be wrong, but for an event 12 hours away it's unlikely to change much now.Earlier in the day I was thinking 90mph was quite possible on the coast but 75-80mph at most seems reasonable, if this is right.

 

Yes, that's precisely what I wondered earlier, but as you quite rightly say its only one run. More to the point, this was my warning from last night in the CSE & SW thread and it still applies IMHO. Be sensible if you do have to be out and about later guys n gals with another 12 to 18 hours of the storm to endure, depending on your location.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79421-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-120214-19z/?p=2930287

Edited February 14, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not sure if I am buying the 12z run yet looking at this.. Because it is gusting over 50mph already in Inland South east.. With some 80mph+ winds moving in.. Could be right though and the 12z is a downgrade (which would be helpful)

 

 

 

 

 

[Nick L]

Wind is really starting to get up now, could be an interesting night.

[TwisterGirl81]

Not sure if I am buying the 12z run yet looking at this.. Because it is gusting over 50mph already in Inland South east.. With some 80mph+ winds moving in.. Could be right though and the 12z is a downgrade (which would be helpful)

 

 

 

winddddddd.jpg

 

I'm not buying it, we've had the strongest winds so far this winter and it's pretty sustained in between and I think for Devon the worst winds will be around 9pm?  If Exeter Airport (which is five miles east of Exeter) has already had a reported gust of 71mph and it's now 4pm makes me wonder if we'll see 80mph + here unless we are experiencing the strongest winds now?  Plus we are at least 10 miles from the coast....Bare in mind that 71mph is only 14 or 15mph less than what Exeter Airport recorded during the Burns Day storm in 1990!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm not buying it, we've had the strongest winds so far this winter and it's pretty sustained in between and I think for Devon the worst winds will be around 9pm?  If Exeter Airport (which is five miles east of Exeter) has already had a reported gust of 71mph and it's now 4pm makes me wonder if we'll see 80mph + here unless we are experiencing the strongest winds now?  Plus we are at least 10 miles from the coast....Bare in mind that 71mph is only 14 or 15mph less than what Exeter Airport recorded during the Burns Day storm in 1990!

 

Im waiting on the high res to update and check that out.. 

[vladthemert]

rain very heavy now cant see the coastline from flat its that heavy

[Sainsbo]

Winds seem stronger than forecast for the time here too. Gusting up to 45mph when the squall line came through. Some sneaky upgrades on the 12z, but the GFS still doesn't bring the winds as far north as the NMM. Strange to see such uncertainty when it's literally on our doorstep.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking at the GFS 12z... 

 

It seems odd to me because it shows the storm down to 956 which don't begin to start filling till it has crossed the Irish sea.. HMMMM

 

HEAD SCRATCH! 

Winds seem stronger than forecast for the time here too. Gusting up to 45mph when the squall line came through. Some sneaky upgrades on the 12z, but the GFS still doesn't bring the winds as far north as the NMM. Strange to see such uncertainty when it's literally on our doorstep.

 

 

Always found the GFS wind charts off TBH

[Barking_Mad]

Ok folks ... to my eyes, GFS 12Z has slightly downgraded the storm and pushes it through faster. Also, inland gusts looking more like 60mph+ rather than 70mph+, big difference when it comes to damage potential.Obviously it's only one run and could be wrong, but for an event 12 hours away it's unlikely to change much now.Earlier in the day I was thinking 90mph was quite possible on the coast but 75-80mph at most seems reasonable, if this is right.

 

The last storm was due to peak at 9pm in my area, but in fact peaked at 6pm. Despite the mb dropping the Met Office still stuck to its guns. But it was wrong

[knightrider]

Significant increase in wind in the last 10 minutes or so.

[Mapantz]

Not sure if I am buying the 12z run yet looking at this.. Because it is gusting over 50mph already in Inland South east.. With some 80mph+ winds moving in.. Could be right though and the 12z is a downgrade (which would be helpful)

winddddddd.jpg

That's just a NMM overlay projection, not live observations. Edited February 14, 2014 by Mapantz

[Cyclonic]

Getting gusty here now

 

Pressure dropping

979.0mb (falling 3.8mb/hr)

Sea state rough (tide going out as off midday)

Rainfall today 20.8mm

 

Flooding and road closures on the island i cant keep track off

Feeling mild outside 11.9c

Back garden flooded, 2 leaks in the house, and only going to get worse 

 

Will keep you posted as the day goes on

Stay safe guys

 

http://www.camscape.com/view/33889             (looking towards the Pier out to sea southwest)

[TwisterGirl81]

torrential rain in Exeter, but I can see a tiny glimmer of blue sky

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That's just a GFS overlay projection, not live observations.

 

NMM high res.. I thought?

[Mapantz]

NMM high res.. I thought?

Yeah, edited. It matches the NMM 6KM model viewer on netweather extra.I do like the NMM hi-res but it can also be way out, it was with the rain.

[stubbys]

Rain stopped here now, only had gusts of 40mph, not expecting much until midnight here on the very southeast tip anyway.

[vladthemert]

stopped raining heavy wind gradualy increasing 18.5 m/s gusts

[stubbys]

A snapshot from my phone (Facebook - London & Southeast weather)

[A.J]

Well, that was an interesting day driving up to Tamworth and back to Lyneham in the name of the almighty dollar!......

 

set off at 7am, was raining steadily. Rain readily turned to snow up near Birdlip on the Cotswolds, back to rain up the M5 and then torrential sleet/wet snow near Lichfield, Staffs around midday...

 

On the way back on the Fosse Way the wind started building and I drove through 2 convective segments near Swindon giving torrential rain, strong cross winds forcing me to pull over for a few mins...Now back home the rain has tapered off as the convective segments have pushed to the north east, but the wind is really getting up, Weather station here recording means of 37mph for the past hour with a top gust of 51mph, and it's going to get worse overnight!