South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/03/14

[Captain Shortwave]

Chucking it down here now.

[Lauren]

It feels like recently has been the start of storm season. Hopefully not so much of a letdown this year

[A.J]

A fascinating day for the SE weatherwise....plenty of squally rain today as the split cold front passed through with thunderstorms for Kent and out over the channel. Tomorrow looks a much drier day with the chance though of the odd shower. Quite a stiff westerly breeze to start with, but the breeze should abate during the afternoon, so with max temps of around 13-14C, it should feel quite pleasant in any sunshine, especially during the afternoon

[Jax]

heavy rain earlier now gone and left with cool and breezy but dry conditions, never had any T&L.

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst a lot of talk has been about cooler and more unsettled weather on the MAD thread, just something to keep an eye on next week.

GFS at day 8

ECM for the same time

Now this is an interesting set up. Now if we can get a decent chunk of that low in the Atlantic to dive south toward Portugal we might be able to suck up some very warm air from Africa. 

It could all change by tomorrow considering the complexities of this set up, double ridges like this are always a pain to model as core heights can shift wildly in the output. But if something like this could happen, then we could possibly see temperatures getting well into the twenties with a decent southerly and plenty of sunshine. 

Another thing to bear in mind is that the height over us could quickly retrogress westwards, being sucked in by the high over the Eastern seaboard, this could set up another scenario in Easter, much colder and unsettled.

GEM shows this developing

Low ready to dive down the north sea here as heights quickly shift into the Northern Atlantic.

 

Plenty to play for for fans of all weather types. With even the ensembles being rather erratic then I think this will take a good few days to resolve and start to show what the Easter weekend could throw up.

[Jax]

WARM, WARM, WARM!

 

 

errrrm  is voting secret?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Whilst a lot of talk has been about cooler and more unsettled weather on the MAD thread, just something to keep an eye on next week.

GFS at day 8

ECM for the same time

Now this is an interesting set up. Now if we can get a decent chunk of that low in the Atlantic to dive south toward Portugal we might be able to suck up some very warm air from Africa. 

It could all change by tomorrow considering the complexities of this set up, double ridges like this are always a pain to model as core heights can shift wildly in the output. But if something like this could happen, then we could possibly see temperatures getting well into the twenties with a decent southerly and plenty of sunshine. 

Another thing to bear in mind is that the height over us could quickly retrogress westwards, being sucked in by the high over the Eastern seaboard, this could set up another scenario in Easter, much colder and unsettled.

GEM shows this developing

Low ready to dive down the north sea here as heights quickly shift into the Northern Atlantic.

 

Plenty to play for for fans of all weather types. With even the ensembles being rather erratic then I think this will take a good few days to resolve and start to show what the Easter weekend could throw up.

Good comments there Captain,  goes to show that there is a huge variety on what's possible within a couple of weeks

[john pike]

hi all

 

tonight should eventually dry out for all and become clear

 

temps around 6 degrees

 

------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

a breezy north west flow

 

rain

 

looks likely to stay dry

 

the north east of the region may have a lot of cloud though

 

temps

 

 

going cooler here

 

11-13 degrees

 

will feel chilly in the wind

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

 

a west north west flow

 

rain

 

none

 

chilly and a chance of a local frost here

 

possible mist locally

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

a weak westerly flow

 

rain

 

none

 

temps

 

warmer around 14-16 degrees

 

sunny spells

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday night

 

a very weak westerly

 

looks dry

 

mist again a possibilty

 

temps

 

chilly but no frost likely

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

a cooler north west flow

 

rain

 

maybe the odd afternoon shower but low risk and would not be heavy

 

temps

 

cooler around 12-14 degrees

 

could be a cloudy day more north of our region

 

 

anyway thats it for now

 

seen worse

 

john

[Jax]

 

brrrrrrrr

[john pike]

friday

 

a north easterly wind

 

so expect cloud to be a pain today

 

rainfall

 

there will be showers and may be a shade heavy in the morning

 

will clear all by mid pm

 

temps

 

 

temps

 

 

quite cool

 

11-13 degrees

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

a very weak north west flow

 

rain

 

 

none

 

temps

 

 

14-16 degrees and more sun today

 

so overall

 

not bad

[Jax]

warm sun JP, where is the warm sun? (not the copy under the cat)

[john pike]

brrrrrrrr

 

hi jax

 

a typical april now

[Captain Shortwave]

WARM, WARM, WARM!

 

 

errrrm  is voting secret?

This was from this afternoons GFS, but I think this sums up the prize of a proper southerly

25C appearing already over Northern France, yikes, it was like the end of June last year when that happened 

Oh yeah this definitely counts as a warm ramp... or in short a tease 

Edited April 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Jax]

Going to make a short trip to the east coast soon, so hoping the weather will pick up a bit by then.  Want to visit Norfolk again and visit some places I like there (Thrigby Hall and the nesting stalks along with the red pandas for a start)

18-19oC is not bad, I will take that but 11oc (blergh)

[john pike]

ukmo for sunday

 

 

looks dry

 

and fairly warm

 

however it depends where this high sits re cloudcover

 

at present that looks ok but too far for now to predict exactly

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

wind

 

 

rain

 

 

variations there on temperature

 

one agreement is these look very dry

[Jax]

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

wind

 

 

rain

 

 

variations there on temperature

 

one agreement is these look very dry

not seeing sustained warm though, shame

Edited April 7, 2014 by Jax

[john pike]

hi jax

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17925527

 

it could be a lot worse

[lassie23]

Clear and very cool this morning, only 5.4c

[Daniel*]

Morning all

5.6 here the coolest it's been in a while, probably the lowest minima, until we enter autumn

Drained back to sleep i go

[snowrye]

a tad chilly here,but a real beaut of a morning outside,have a great day peeps

[Captain Shortwave]

Sunny start here as well

[legrandefromage]

Brighter and breezier than my trousers in a post curry night bright & breezy trouser competition.*

 

 

 

 

 

*I just wanted to say the word 'trouser' as it is such a daft word.

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Brrrrr! Its bloomin' chilly in Ippy this morning, but it is sunny with crystal clear skies.

The weather situation has been unfortunate as my niece took two days off work to do the garden. Maybe get some digging done today if rain stays away.

Have a good day folks.

[Steve C]

Afternoon All.

 

The forum is very quiet at the moment; I suspect the non-descript weather doesn't help.

 

10C here, but it feels chilly in the breeze. More typical early Spring weather than we've seen, I suppose.