eastern pacific Tropical storm Boris

[Vorticity0123]

A new tropical depression has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just to the south of eastern Mexico. 02E is a large system, and may therefore have a difficult time to organize itself quickly.

Track forecast of 02E (Courtesy: NOAA)

Source:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Edited June 7, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, the second tropical depression of the season has formed, with winds of 25kts. Convection has really started to build nicely with this system now, something that had been lacking over the previous few days. 02E is still a broad system, but it should continue to organise as shear is low and waters very warm. The question is, how long will 02E have over water? Models are in disagreement on how slowly 02E will track northwards towards landfall. The slower the track, the more time 02E will have to strengthen over water. Regardless of strength at landfall, eastern Mexico and neighbouring countries could receive up to 20 inches of rainfall from 02E over the coming days, which will in no doubt cause serious flooding and increase the risk of mudslides.

[Cookie]

Not so good, hopefully the rain won't be to much of an impact, some of the models have this storm making it into the Gulf of Mexico 

[Vorticity0123]

Judging from satellite images (as of 14:00 UTC), 02E is looking like a real mess. Convection has been bursting during the past several hours, but there are no banding features present (though some weakly defined banding may be developing in the southeastern quadrant as of speaking). This can be seen in the Rainbow-colour enhanced satellite loop below

 

Rainbow satellite loop of 02E (Courtesy: NOAA)

 

Furthermore, there seems to be some modest southwestern shear impinging on the system, as most of the convection is moving northeastward, being blown inland over Southeastern Mexico. CIMSS shear analysis also shows this, diagnosing about 15 kt of shear over 02E¹. 

 

On the other hand, it appears that the centre of 02E is located beneath the convection. indicating that 02E could be that disorganized as I suspected it to be after viewing satellite imagery.

 

Of note is that ADT satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS have risen to 41 kt (as of 14:00 UTC), which would argue that 02E will be upgraded to a tropical storm in the next advisory cycle. However, given the seemingly sheared and disorganized appearance, and the fact that AMSU and SATCON satellite intensity estimates are only giving a maximum intensity of 33 and 32 kt, respectively, one could also argue that 02E is still a tropical depression.

 

EDIT: new evidence suggests that 02E most likely has become a tropical storm. The evidence comes from AMSU satellite intensity estimates:

 

AMSU satellite intensity estimates of 02E (Courtesy: UCAR.edu)

 

All satellite intensity estimates during the past few hours have been in the 40-45 kt range, which is unanimously a tropical storm.

 

The question is, how long will 02E have over water? Models are in disagreement on how slowly 02E will track northwards towards landfall. The slower the track, the more time 02E will have to strengthen over water. Regardless of strength at landfall, eastern Mexico and neighbouring countries could receive up to 20 inches of rainfall from 02E over the coming days, which will in no doubt cause serious flooding and increase the risk of mudslides.

 

It appears to be becoming more and more likely that 02E will not have much time over water left. Most models agree now that 02E will make landfall in a few days (perhaps already tomorrow). However, the future of 02E afterwards remains unclear.

 

Tropical cyclone model track predictions of 02E (Courtesy: UCAR.edu)

 

Whatever the outcome will be, it seems like eastern Mexico could brace itself for some serious flooding, as mentioned before.

 

EDIT: 02E has just been upgraded to tropical storm Boris, the second of the 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

 

Sources:

¹ http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=02E&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=EP022014

Edited June 3, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[knocker]

 

Torrential rains are lashing Southeast Mexico and Southern Guatemala as Tropical Depression Two-E lumbers northwards at about 5 mph, with landfall expected to occur Wednesday in Southeast Mexico. Even though TD-2E has top winds of just 35 mph, and will, at worst, become a weak tropical storm before landfall, it is an extremely dangerous rainfall threat to the region, as the storm's slow motion is expected keep heavy rains over the region the entire week. The NHC forecast is for 10 - 20" of rain with isolated amounts of 30 inches (750 mm) or more in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing widespread flooding and heavy loss of life. Tropical Storm Agatha hit this region at the end of May 2010 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, and dumped up to 22.27" of rain. The resulting catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed 190 and caused $1.1 billion in damage, mostly in Guatemala. Heavy rains from the precursors of TD-2E triggered a landslide in Guatemala over the weekend, killing five people. In neighboring areas of Mexico, several landslides closed mountain roads on Monday, and evacuations began Monday evening from coastal and low-lying areas next to rivers that are prone to flooding.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2690

[Somerset Squall]

30 inches! That doesn't bear thinking about!

[Somerset Squall]

Any circulation associated with Boris is rapidly dissipating, as the system moves over the rugged terrain of southeastern Mexico. NHC have kept Boris at tropical depression status for now, but will likely downgrade Boris this afternoon. However, the heavy rainfall threat is nowhere near over, Boris' remnants, combined with a trough over the Bay Of Campeche, will likely provide rains in this area for days to come.

[Cookie]

bye bye Boris

 

REMNANTS OF BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014
200 PM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

Visible satellite images and surface observations show that
Boris has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Thus, this is
the last advisory on this system. The remnants of Boris should move
slowly northward and become part of a large trough of low pressure
extending from across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec northward into the
Bay of Campeche.

The remnants of this system, in combination with the Bay of Campeche
trough, will continue to produce very heavy rainfall during the
next couple of days. These rains will likely cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides across the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Chiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco, especially over mountainous regions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF BORIS
12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake