Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

[paul m]

Oh well no warnings of storms for here and no heat either.

[Evening thunder]

I think there's a fair chance of elevated storms later tonight and tomorrow moving north, with lots of ML CAPE, and the BBC/MetO rainfall maps seem to show this (yes I know..) 

 

Though just checked the MetO rainfall map, and it has a different take with activity moving north at 1am

 

and then something for those in the SE worried they may miss out

 

Then seems to go for another band of what looks like heavy rain with embedded thundery elements to develop and move north/NNE

 

I've seen these maps verify quite well before, but not every time and this is a change from what it showed before and other other models around so not sure how much to pay attention to it, though does show potential for storms even into the SE tonight.

[Speedway Slider]

Well me been near Coventry I'm just outside your expected area and even further away from you severe area which is good for me

 

Well, I am on the western fringe of the less severe section now...  Still worried, with the obligatory stomach butterfly's, and the gentle head thumping also in situ now....

[Gordon Webb]

Well, I am on the western fringe of the less severe section now...  Still worried, with the obligatory stomach butterfly's, and the gentle head thumping also in situ now....

 

yeah I know how that feels

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[Gordon Webb]

is the change in forecast happening because the cold front has decided to get a move on ?

[Harry]

Well well well, potential for tonight is encouraging as all week I've been a little concerned about the SE appearing to be less favoured, despite boasting some of the better ingredients. Even models up until only recently have been less keen on breaking out anything in the SE corner, favouring N/W of London northwards.

 

I am a teeny weeny bit more excited now

 

Ramp time.....(maybe)

[Boro Snow]

BBC weather shows thundery intense downpours mainly from midlands up in to northwest England moving north and then straddling west-east by 4pm across NW & NE England.

 

 

Hope it comes off!!

hope so too mate could be another June 2012

[Chris K]

Evidence? Can't see any downgrade infact maybe a possible slight upgrade in chances.

 

Sorry but I am on my mobile. Compared to yesterday, I see downgrades for the SW with a bit of an extra NE shift in emphasis on storms - but that is my interpretation and happy for people to say otherwise. The Met Office fax charts show the cold front to pass most of the SW earlier than what was shown yesterday.The High res NMM model early this morning and the Met Office rainfall didn't look inspiring for the SW either, with the best developments exploding after it has passed our regions. With the BBC, Met Office and model rainfall charts contradicting each other a bit, this is my only positive feeling that uncertainty still remains. Yes it will change but I am still skeptical. I feel the best chances for seeing thundery activity in the SW are actually overnight now like AWD has said.

 

It's all well and good that MLCAPE is looking good for areas overnight but time and time again I have seen nothing develop from this. This setup is all too familiar in my opinion.

 

i agree with TEITS marked drawing of where he thinks the best chances are.

Edited June 6, 2014 by Chris K

[Heisenberg]

one good fork

 

for a minute there I thought it said something else

LMAO I could do with one of them too....even better if I caught that on camera too, but i dont think the wife would agree :-)

[Chris.R]

The Liverpool airport taf shows high probability of heavy thunderstorm rain/hail beginning at 05 Z.

Think I will go to bed early this evening, and wake up about 3 and see how things are going.

[Gordon Webb]

Sorry but I am on my mobile. Compared to yesterday, I see downgrades for the SW with a bit of an extra NE shift in emphasis on storms - but that is my interpretation and happy for people to say otherwise. The Met Office fax charts show the cold front to pass most of the SW earlier than what was shown yesterday.The High res NMM model early this morning and the Met Office rainfall didn't look inspiring for the SW either, with the best developments exploding after it has passed our regions. Yes it will change but I am still skeptical. I feel the best chances for seeing thundery activity in the SW are actually overnight now like AWD has said.

 

It's all well and good that MLCAPE is looking good for areas overnight but time and time again I have seen nothing devleop from this. This setup is all too familiar in my opinion.

 

i agree with TEITS marked drawing of where he thinks the best chances are.

 

I'm happy you all agree with his assessment becuase I'm out of the risk zone doesn't mean I'm in the clear but I'm a lot happier today than what I was yesterday

 

Thank God for speedier Cold Fronts

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gordon Webb

[Karl83]

Sorry but I am on my mobile. Compared to yesterday, I see downgrades for the SW with a bit of an extra NE shift in emphasis on storms - but that is my interpretation and happy for people to say otherwise. The Met Office fax charts show the cold front to pass most of the SW earlier than what was shown yesterday.The High res NMM model early this morning and the Met Office rainfall didn't look inspiring for the SW either, with the best developments exploding after it has passed our regions. With the BBC, Met Office and model rainfall charts contradicting each other a bit, this is my only positive feeling that uncertainty still remains. Yes it will change but I am still skeptical. I feel the best chances for seeing thundery activity in the SW are actually overnight now like AWD has said.

 

It's all well and good that MLCAPE is looking good for areas overnight but time and time again I have seen nothing devleop from this. This setup is all too familiar in my opinion.

 

i agree with TEITS marked drawing of where he thinks the best chances are.

I have to agree there Chris - Looking at the charts this morning, our chances have been watered down.

[shaky]

Nothing has downgraded!!it just that the cold front is gona sweep in quicker than first thought!!

[William Grimsley]

Sorry but I am on my mobile. Compared to yesterday, I see downgrades for the SW with a bit of an extra NE shift in emphasis on storms - but that is my interpretation and happy for people to say otherwise. The Met Office fax charts show the cold front to pass most of the SW earlier than what was shown yesterday.The High res NMM model early this morning and the Met Office rainfall didn't look inspiring for the SW either, with the best developments exploding after it has passed our regions. With the BBC, Met Office and model rainfall charts contradicting each other a bit, this is my only positive feeling that uncertainty still remains. Yes it will change but I am still skeptical. I feel the best chances for seeing thundery activity in the SW are actually overnight now like AWD has said.

 

It's all well and good that MLCAPE is looking good for areas overnight but time and time again I have seen nothing devleop from this. This setup is all too familiar in my opinion.

 

i agree with TEITS marked drawing of where he thinks the best chances are.

Overnight was originally what we were going to get not tomorrow.

[Azazel]

glad we are still on for tonight, now its all about picking a good vantage point. Ideally any elevated storms will skirt just to the west or east of me so i dont get wet (being out in the middle of nowhere with no real shelter). I'm thinking of my spot that overlooks the southwest, but knowing my luck they'll move up over the southeast and I wont be able to see anything. Decisions, decisions.

[Liam J]

Some vertical vorticity charts from the NMM-6, off the scale in places! 

 

[Gordon Webb]

Nothing has downgraded!!it just that the cold front is gona sweep in quicker than first thought!!

It amounts to the same thing

[Norfolk Sheep]

Hmm, my local forecasts have all but removed any storm risk for the east (at the moment). I'm thinking we'll suffer from claggy decaying rubbish which will inhibit any chance of development later in the day (this pretty much happens every time with similar set ups). But you never know, we may get lucky

[William Grimsley]

Some vertical vorticity charts from the NMM-6, off the scale in places! 

 

vert5.pngvert1.pngvert2.pngvert3.pngvert4.png

Jesus!

[shaky]

It amounts to the same thing

which hopefully means we get the storms earlier in the morning and not in the afternoon!!fingers crossed!!

[Speedway Slider]

I'm happy you all agree with his assessment becuase I'm out of the risk zone doesn't mean I'm in the clear but I'm a lot happier today than what I was yesterday

 

Thank God for speedier Cold Fronts

Gordon, if you don't mind me asking, how long have you had problems with Thunderstorms, and what is it you do when you get one...?

Cheers

Karl. 

[staplehurst]

Hmm, my local forecasts have all but removed any storm risk for the east (at the moment). I'm thinking we'll suffer from claggy decaying rubbish which will inhibit any chance of development later in the day (this pretty much happens every time with similar set ups). But you never know, we may get lucky

We may get some elevated storms early tomorrow morning (but a lot of uncertainty over eastern extent), otherwise as you say it's more of a west of a Wash-London line where some supercells may be possible in the afternoon/early evening.

[Chris K]

Overnight was originally what we were going to get not tomorrow.

 

Yes you are right for areas further SW. But for the W Country such as Bristol, Gloucestershire etc it was looking quite good for breakfast time Saturday. It really will be a case of watching developments as they happen. Personally I am keeping my expectations low but if we do see something it will be a bonus

[Gordon Webb]

Gordon, if you don't mind me asking, how long have you had problems with Thunderstorms, and what is it you do when you get one...?CheersKarl.

Well in a nutshell most of my life and when one comes along shut curtains turn up the volume on tv to very high levels turn light on and sit in one position and wait it out

[William Grimsley]

Yes you are right for areas further SW. But for the W Country such as Bristol, Gloucestershire etc it was looking quite good for breakfast time Saturday. It really will be a case of watching developments as they happen. Personally I am keeping my expectations low but if we do see something it will be a bonus

I'm thinking like you are Chris.