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Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards

Jane Louise
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

a real quickie as I have to dash out to work and haven't got time to peruse the models, but here's 4 charts from the hi-res 00z NMM which might interest elevated storm fans in southern england...

 

 

post-4149-0-66997200-1402045340_thumb.pnpost-4149-0-22547300-1402045352_thumb.pnpost-4149-0-51132100-1402045365_thumb.pnpost-4149-0-08793700-1402045383_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

 

my analysis?...........

 

 

 

 

.....Me Likey Lots!!

 

 

El Grande Tempesto is coming!!

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

a real quickie as I have to dash out to work and haven't got time to peruse the models, but here's 4 charts from the hi-res 00z NMM which might interest elevated storm fans in southern england...

 

 

Posted Image1.pngPosted Image2.pngPosted Image3.pngPosted Image4.png

 

 

 

 

 

my analysis?...........

 

 

 

 

.....Me Likey Lots!!

 

 

El Grande Tempesto is coming!!

Looks total rubbish for me however that is in the morning not overnight.

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

a real quickie as I have to dash out to work and haven't got time to peruse the models, but here's 4 charts from the hi-res 00z NMM which might interest elevated storm fans in southern england...

 

 

Posted Image1.pngPosted Image2.pngPosted Image3.pngPosted Image4.png

 

 

 

 

 

my analysis?...........

 

 

 

 

.....Me Likey Lots!!

 

 

El Grande Tempesto is coming!!

According to the storm forecasts for here it's not
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Looks total rubbish for me however that is in the morning not overnight.

 

 

According to the storm forecasts for here it's not

read the posts again chaps!

 

Will, you must be looking at model outputs that I'm not, as we have a cold front engaging a high theta-e plume advected along it during very early saturday morning with steep mid level lapse rates, high precipitable water content, and several hundred joules of elevated convective energy potentially to be released in an increasingly unstable elevated layer......looks rather good to me!

 

Paul, my post is geared towards, and states it's for,  southern England tomorrow morning, not oooop north 

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Arrrrrggghh Carol Kirkwood just used the 'H' word regarding thunderstorms.

I really can't think of what word Carol Kirkwood would use regarding the word 'H'...... Holy moley!, "holy crap!" even...H-bomb! maybe :shok: Any guesses? :wink:

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

Cold front moving through faster has thrown a real spanner in thw work s it seems

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Cold front moving through faster has thrown a real spanner in thw work s it seems

 

Spotted the signs after the 12z GFS yesterday. If only it could have held off further west until later tomorrow....we could have had some real fun. In truth, the plume has no time to establish before the cold front pushes it all away.

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

a real quickie as I have to dash out to work and haven't got time to peruse the models, but here's 4 charts from the hi-res 00z NMM which might interest elevated storm fans in southern england...

 

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

 

 

 

my analysis?...........

 

 

 

 

.....Me Likey Lots!!

 

 

El Grande Tempesto is coming!!

Looks like there's still a chance of us seeing something then Aj :)

 

I still don't think we'll know what specific locations are going to get anything until it's here, the areas with the heaviest precip may fall is still changes dramatically from run to run.

 

Looks like some places that do see the worst of the storms could see a problem with flash floods. 70-80mm in a few spots over the next 48 hours, most falling in a very short timeframe.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Sainsbo
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Speedway Slider Enthusiast

Speedway Slider

Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
Posted

Well in a nutshell most of my life and when one comes along shut curtains turn up the volume on tv to very high levels turn light on and sit in one position and wait it out

Hmmm, similar to me, do you have sky, cable or standard tv through aerial I had sky installed to avoid an aerial on the roof!!! 

I unplug everything electrial except Sky tv, turn mirrors around, and basically sit there terrified!! 

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

I remain optimistic about all this. Last months mega-storm ( :crazy:) was supported in less than 400j/kg MLCAPE. I am taking the charts with a pinch of salt. Who knows what will happen, as is always the case with moisture injecting from a plume.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

read the posts again chaps!

 

Will, you must be looking at model outputs that I'm not, as we have a cold front engaging a high theta-e plume advected along it during very early saturday morning with steep mid level lapse rates, high precipitable water content, and several hundred joules of elevated convective energy potentially to be released in an increasingly unstable elevated layer......looks rather good to me!

 

Paul, my post is geared towards, and states it's for,  southern England tomorrow morning, not oooop north 

Yes, I can see that AJ. But, it's not really over me it's more your way towards Dorset and Somerset.

I really can't think of what word Carol Kirkwood would use regarding the word 'H'...... Holy moley!, "holy crap!" even...H-bomb! maybe :shok: Any guesses? :wink:

Humdingers?

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Bolt from the Blue Enthusiast

Bolt from the Blue

Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
Posted

Hi all,

What time should we expect things to kick off tonight in the South West? I would like to see some lightning but have to go to sleep at some point as I have work tomorrow, no idea whether to stay up late or get up early??? Or both and struggle through work lol. :)

Many Thanks

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Spotted the signs after the 12z GFS yesterday. If only it could have held off further west until later tomorrow....we could have had some real fun. In truth, the plume has no time to establish before the cold front pushes it all away.

morning mate, I'm not seeing it that way....FAX charts don't show the cold front moving though quicker.....00z FAX for midnight shows CF straddling Cornwall across to Ireland with a trough across southern England, this trough will destabilize to give elevated convection/storms in this area, and then at 12z tomorrow the CF straddling the welsh borders down to the south coast which is pretty much where we've been for the past couple of days. Also cast your eyes further south as a frontal wave forms along the CF over Biscay, this will probably if verified slow down the progress of the CF as it traverses the UK

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Can see a tiny bit of altocumulus castellanus cloud to the SSE of here now.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

We'll probably see where the Metoffice think has the most possibility for severe weather when they update the warnings in due course.

morning mate, I'm not seeing it that way....FAX charts don't show the cold front moving though quicker.....00z FAX for midnight shows CF straddling Cornwall across to Ireland with a trough across southern England, this trough will destabilize to give elevated convection/storms in this area, and then at 12z tomorrow the CF straddling the welsh borders down to the south coast which is pretty much where we've been for the past couple of days. Also cast your eyes further south as a frontal wave forms along the CF over Biscay, this will probably if verified slow down the progress of the CF as it traverses the UK

 

You're probably right mate. Just a bit deflated as to how much the CAPE has withered on the GFS....but then again it should probably be expected with the GFS.

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Jan Rising Star

Jan

Posted
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
  • Weather Preferences: Any extreme weather conditions
  • Location: North Liverpool & Huertas Bajas de Cabra Cordoba S
Posted

I have been searching around other weather forecast sites and mostly found anything from drizzle to heavy rain for my location not really any mention of the T word let alone 'severe'. Will get up early tomorrow though, just in case. No doubt my magpie alarm will wake me again, hopefully it will get struck by lightening

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

We'll probably see where the Metoffice think has the most possibility for severe weather when they update the warnings in due course.

 

You're probably right mate. Just a bit deflated as to how much the CAPE has withered on the GFS....but then again it should probably be expected with the GFS.

radar watching is the name of the game mate.....GFS is prob not the best model to watch at T24/36....chin up, I'm sure you'll get a cracker tomorrow  :good:

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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted

read the posts again chaps! Will, you must be looking at model outputs that I'm not, as we have a cold front engaging a high theta-e plume advected along it during very early saturday morning with steep mid level lapse rates, high precipitable water content, and several hundred joules of elevated convective energy potentially to be released in an increasingly unstable elevated layer......looks rather good to me! Paul, my post is geared towards, and states it's for,  southern England tomorrow morning, not oooop north

That's favouritism n i am reporting you to the mods!!!!!! Lol
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted (edited)

Ahhh! you maybe right there young will.... I thought it maybe horrendous! but yes that's the kind of word (Humdingers) Carol Kirkwood would use :good:

 

Still i would love them to come on one day, take a look at the screen and just say 'Holy crap' :rofl:

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

That's favouritism n i am reporting you to the mods!!!!!! Lol

here's 20 pence, now go phone someone who gives a damn, old bean  :laugh:

 

 

you'll get a storm tomorrow Paul, trust me, I'll somehow make it happen....if only to shut you up  :p  :p  :laugh:

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

radar watching is the name of the game mate.....GFS is prob not the best model to watch at T24/36....chin up, I'm sure you'll get a cracker tomorrow  :good:

 

If not it'll be

 

 

El Tantrumo

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

If not it'll be

 

 

El Tantrumo

Posted Image

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

06Z GFS seems to have downgraded CAPE values again.

 

Sure has. Those warm uppers are dwindling fast. Those rainfall rates look insane in some areas however

 

Posted Image

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