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Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

A.J

By A.J
in Storms & Severe Weather

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BrickFielder Rising Star

BrickFielder

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
Posted

 Well Saturday did not really work out as expected, although some areas did get storms. At the end of the day we can only go by what the models show us, but it became clear looking at satellite pictures Friday evening that things would be a little different to forecast. It seems to me that models have a bit of a problem with a cyclonic vortex which may have multiple smaller cyclonic areas.  Here is what GFS made of wind speeds to our west.

An Eumetsat satellite picture demonstrates what winds to our west really looked like.

Now I know there are no soundings out in the Atlantic and no measuring stations, but it seems to me satellite analysis by the models was poor in my opinion.

 

Bearing this in mind there is a risk of storms today mainly across Ireland and Scotland. However models would suggest that there is an area from north wales through to the north east where some convection could take place.

 

Forecast SkewT's suggest convection is likely to be a little low topped.

 

So some risk of heavy showers for Lincolnshire up to the north west late afternoon, perhaps taking advantage of urban heating at peak daytime heating. Perhaps also a suggestion of development in east Anglia.

 

Looking at Satellite pictures I think I would be tending to look towards the south west and south coast. Looks like a storm has developed over the north west coast of France which is heading towards the UK.

 

 

Think forecasters are going to be taking a closer look at satellite pictures this afternoon.

 

 

 

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

That lump in the southwest can stay there, the weather is too good for it to be ruined. ;)

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Heres are the videos of convection over my area yesterday showing the cap perfectly...

http://youtu.be/Zzkcl39D780

http://youtu.be/pCSEFRsyDwU

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

^ Awesome

 

Looks like some intense showers are due to arrive in the south east in the early hours, but as it's the 6th time we are due something now it's most likely not going to happen. Forecasting any thing other than drizzle is pitiful in this country :(

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Generalelectrix Contributor

Generalelectrix

Posted
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey
  • Location: Constance, Germany or Mytchett, Surrey
Posted

Thanks @ Brickfielder for evaluation :hi:

 

@ Panayotis: Cool vids, watch the clouds bang their heads on the CAP..

 

Ralph

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saint Rising Star

saint

Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts
Posted

^ Awesome

 

Looks like some intense showers are due to arrive in the south east in the early hours, but as it's the 6th time we are due something now it's most likely not going to happen. Forecasting any thing other than drizzle is pitiful in this country :(

 

But, the areas in the SW that were forecasted to see storms the other night DID see storms? Also, Kent was never due to do too well on Friday night, the chances were always much lower than those to the West.

 

Chin up!  :D

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

But, the areas in the SW that were forecasted to see storms the other night DID see storms? Also, Kent was never due to do too well on Friday night, the chances were always much lower than those to the West.

 

Chin up!  :D

 

So what about the storms that went up the north sea or those that clipped east anglia? That wasn't exactly west :p

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

The temperature has dropped and the humidity has increased. Only a few spits of rain in the wind, currently. There is heavier rain towards my E.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

HOLY SMOKES! A thunderstorm coming this way! WOW! :DI did see some altocumulus castellanus cloud when I was out SSW of Exmouth.

Yeah, surprised at that tbh. Hope it delivers.
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Yeah, surprised at that tbh. Hope it delivers.

It is interesting. The air is quite stable here.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Yeah, surprised at that tbh. Hope it delivers.

I hope it stays west of here.After Friday's forecasts of storms on Saturday that didn't deliver here, yesterday's forecasts were for the gorgeous weather we have right now, so if that lump creeps any closer, I shall not be happy!@bbcweatherHeavy showers and thunderstorms will move into Devon, Dorset and Somerset over the next few hours, some quite lengthy. Chris F
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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Heres are the videos of convection over my area yesterday showing the cap perfectly...

http://youtu.be/Zzkcl39D780

http://youtu.be/pCSEFRsyDwU

How can you tell its capping? Is it because they stop shooting up?

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

It is interesting. The air is quite stable here.

Hopefully as it taps into the CAPE probably over dartmoor etc as I'm sure there'll be some lifting mechanism there, it will strengthen substantially and hopefully become a right mover over the midlands :p
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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

Hopefully as it taps into the CAPE probably over dartmoor etc as I'm sure there'll be some lifting mechanism there, it will strengthen substantially and hopefully become a right mover over the midlands :p

MetO pptn chart brings that up the western part of the midlands and into NW/N England by 7pm ish. They seem to think that area of instability will tap into that potential. Certainly feels very warm and a bit humid today!
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

MetO pptn chart brings that up the western part of the midlands and into NW/N England by 7pm ish. They seem to think that area of instability will tap into that potential. Certainly feels very warm and a bit humid today!

Yeah it sure does, 24c in some spots and possibly rising further until tea time, so there is definitely some juice to the atmosphere temperature wise. Tomorrow looking perhaps like it could throw a few surprises as well.
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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

Yeah it sure does, 24c in some spots and possibly rising further until tea time, so there is definitely some juice to the atmosphere temperature wise. Tomorrow looking perhaps like it could throw a few surprises as well.

And Tuesday!
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

How can you tell its capping? Is it because they stop shooting up?

Yes you can see it bubbling up then it hits the cap (a level of more stable air), like when steam from a kettle hits a ceiling...

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

Gone from this .....

Posted Image

To this in 20 minutes

Posted Image

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Chris101 Aficionado

Chris101

Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
Posted

So what about the storms that went up the north sea or those that clipped east anglia? That wasn't exactly west :p

Unfortunately with storms it will always be the case that some will see them and others will not, you can rest assured that when you see the large breakdowns over France, Belgium, Germany etc they are in exactly the same boat, i,m sure there were plenty of storm lovers like us who were feeling the same as yourself in Belgium yesterday when they saw the storms breaking out. I didn't expect to see anything here yesterday and then bagged 3 storms over Ipswich and another dying storm with a few flashes and rumbles passed to the West, it always seems that when you don't build yourself up for it, it then happens.

 

Don't get too downhearted, it will happen for you again, and you'll probably go through a stage where it seems that every time theres a storm outbreak you get one every time.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

On Tennis, "thunderstorms are expected to develop around 5PM" - any chance these could reach our shores?

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Looks pretty boring rain coming this way now. Maybe got a bit over excited when I saw the strikes and not play the radar back.

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