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Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Well the met office rainfall forecast, while not NEVER to be taken as gospel, has more areas of Southern England shown as covered as it crosses later tonight and into the early hours. It could perhaps even tail across towards London, so many people have some good chance to see something even more Saturday!

 

It also seems to be arriving earlier...This morning, rainfall was shown as not due where I live until about 0400hrs here, but now it looks like it will hit around 0000-0100 for the W Country, areas of the Midlands, Southern Wales and Southern Ireland....exciting times!! :D

 

Sorry Chris K, slight tweak to your post above (strictly in my opinion of course)  :rofl:

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

So then,3000+ CAPE and an LI of -10 for Saturday afteroon according to 

the 06z NMM. :shok:

 

Posted Imagenmmuk-6-58-0.png

 

Normally these figures decrease the nearer the event,but not this time.

RIP Peterborough!!!!

Words actually fail me !

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Sorry Chris K, slight tweak to your post above (strictly in my opinion of course)  :rofl:

 

Nope that is fine particularly for set ups like this! :laugh: I was just highlighting the fact more people might get a nice surprise tonight due to the changes :)

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted

So then,3000+ CAPE and an LI of -10 for Saturday afteroon according to 

the 06z NMM. :shok:

 

Posted Imagenmmuk-6-58-0.png

 

Normally these figures decrease the nearer the event,but not this time.

 

impressive when was last time similar forecast to this here looks 2100j/kg 

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

with the models seeming to show upgrades I am wondering if we may see further upgrades right the way till the event happens as when you think of it models are run to go along with previous old data so if this is different from what we have seen in the past and is to be worse then the models might be struggling to keep up with it as they are going along with what usually happens and it usually getting shunted off east after all they can only go as far as they are programmed to and if this is to be unusual compared to previous plumes we could see this getting better from a storm point of view

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elfinpunk Apprentice

elfinpunk

Posted
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare
  • Weather Preferences: Windy, rumbly, flashy or snowy.
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare
Posted

I am a little surprised that the UKMO haven't issued any warnings for tonight into tomorrow. Is this because they have info showing far less damaging conditions than could occur on Saturday? x

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

So then,3000+ CAPE and an LI of -10 for Saturday afteroon according to 

the 06z NMM. :shok:

 

Posted Imagenmmuk-6-58-0.png

 

Normally these figures decrease the nearer the event,but not this time.

 

I'm in the purple bit. So will the storms develop over me again and  move on? only time will time, i guess...

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

I am a little surprised that the UKMO haven't issued any warnings for tonight into tomorrow. Is this because they have info showing far less damaging conditions than could occur on Saturday? x

Yeah, I don't know what is wrong with them but they don't want to seem to forecast anything spectacular unfortunately, we should get something though, things are already firing/fired up.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Does anyone use these lightning maps?http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

Indeed

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Heisenberg Aficionado

Heisenberg

Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
Posted

MetO still have light rain for me all the way through, no flash symbols or anything yet....I do wonder about them sometimes. What could go wrong eh :yahoo:

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

I am a little surprised that the UKMO haven't issued any warnings for tonight into tomorrow. Is this because they have info showing far less damaging conditions than could occur on Saturday? x

 

It depends really. I would imagine they have more criteria than what we see on their website. Timings of weather will affect the warning rating on their matrix.

 

For example, there should not be much traffic on the roads disrupted by any storms tonight. Of course there will be the usual night time delivery traffic and that sort of thing, but compared to daytime traffic the risk is lower, as there's less drivers to depend on being aware. Also it is unlikely there will be many sporting events or other public outings that late in the night. Based on that, the risk of disruption is lower than Saturday where there are likely to be quite a few events going on and also people will be out and about during the day.

 

I am sure they take many other things into account as well.

Edited by Chris K
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Heisenberg Aficionado

Heisenberg

Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
Posted

Does anyone use these lightning maps?http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

wow it really is kicking off. Loads of strikes happening

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

I'd caution not to set expectations too high. Some places will get hit hard, others will get nowt despite having all the ingredients in place. There's always surprises in these setups and so disappointments. Just look out of the window is best I think, the only way to be sure you're getting a thunderstorm! Temper expectations then if you get nowt you aren't too dissapointed, if you get battered you're surprised and happy.

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suffolkboy_ Aficionado

suffolkboy_

Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
Posted

So then,3000+ CAPE and an LI of -10 for Saturday afteroon according to 

the 06z NMM. :shok:

 

Posted Imagenmmuk-6-58-0.png

 

Normally these figures decrease the nearer the event,but not this time.

 

I'm at Santa Pod raceway all weekend....could be more than just the drag cars making explosions!

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Buriedundersnow Experienced

Buriedundersnow

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
Posted

Expect an amber maybe a local red warning methinks...This lot means business.

 

yeah it does seem it and hopefully this time around it will push right up into Scotland and give us some of the excitement as well for a change instead of it all dying over northern england

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stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

Never mind looking at the radar.

I've gone 'old school'

Whip out that old AM radio, and listen to the sferics as they nudge ever closer

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

I'd caution not to set expectations too high. Some places will get hit hard, others will get nowt despite having all the ingredients in place. There's always surprises in these setups and so disappointments. Just look out of the window is best I think, the only way to be sure you're getting a thunderstorm! Temper expectations then if you get nowt you aren't too dissapointed, if you get battered you're surprised and happy.

You're right, but areas with higher instability like here have a higher chance of seeing something whereas areas with low instability have lower chances.

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Just watched latest weather report. And to my untrained eye things don't look that bad to be honest. Yes some torrential downpours but certainly nothing to warrant a red weather warning. Think perhaps a few are getting a little carried away here.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Just watched latest weather report. And to my untrained eye things don't look that bad to be honest. Yes some torrential downpours but certainly nothing to warrant a red weather warning. Think perhaps a few are getting a little carried away here.

 

I would have thought red warnings would only be issued if the possibility of severe flash flooding occurred, for example under a cloudburst or prolonged torrential rainfall. Problem is, it is usually too late to issue the warning when it is happening real time...

 

I could perhaps see an amber being raised if storms become prolonged on Saturday but at the moment the yellow "be aware" is likely to be the main one. 

Edited by Chris K
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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted

MetO still have light rain for me all the way through, no flash symbols or anything yet....I do wonder about them sometimes. What could go wrong eh :yahoo:

 

think air is they frightened to over egg or getting it wrong by issue warnings too early its a damp squid.  To me better give out warnings be better safe than sorry atitude.  I felt during winter met was too slow wrong issuing warnings close to knuckle of the event even as late during it, if lives at risk best to air on the caution and give warnings early and clear.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

I'd caution not to set expectations too high. Some places will get hit hard, others will get nowt despite having all the ingredients in place. There's always surprises in these setups and so disappointments. Just look out of the window is best I think, the only way to be sure you're getting a thunderstorm! Temper expectations then if you get nowt you aren't too dissapointed, if you get battered you're surprised and happy.

Nice to get excited but for quite a few this will be wasted, and many places will, as always, miss out. I shall be happy to hear a few rumbles, see a few flashes, any more a bonus :)

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