Storm & Convective Discussion 12z 21/7/14 ------>

[Mokidugway]

Apparently a direct strike can leave you with many health problems ,one being an irregular heartbeat, not to mention mental issues like depression !!....

Edited July 22, 2014 by Mokidugway

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just working through my pics. Here's a selection from the Oxford (super)cell.

 

(Was it really a supercell?)

 

 

Watching the beast approach...

 

 

Lovely cumulus tower from a lay-by on the way towards it

 

 

Awesome threatening sky over the park and ride

 

 

Got a bolt out of it - but was rumbling away. Quite active, would have been amazing to see at night I bet!

 

 

Got over-excited when I first saw this, but looks like just an interesting cloud and nothing more serious than that!

 

 

Screengrab from a video I took - rotating cloud base turned green!

 

 

Now - is/was this a microburst? Didn't seem to be rotating in any noticeable way

 

 

[Sprites]

Flash bang etc - it looks like a supercell, has a tail cloud ,updraught vault...compact shape.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Flash bang etc - it looks like a supercell, has a tail cloud ,updraught vault...compact shape.

 

Really? Wowzers

[Vince Coombes]

On authority it was a supercell had the classic flying eagle shape on radar. From here in aylesbury it was a spectacle to behold and guess I won't see many like that if at all again in my lifetime awaiting raw video from a friend of a friend .hail was in excess of 3 cm in Tingewick , BUckingham

[Harry]

On authority it was a supercell had the classic flying eagle shape on radar. From here in aylesbury it was a spectacle to behold and guess I won't see many like that if at all again in my lifetime awaiting raw video from a friend of a friend .hail was in excess of 3 cm in Tingewick , BUckingham

I could see it from all the way down here and it had a beautiful, robust up draught and the anvil was spreading its way largely N/NE suggesting there was enough mechanics up there to perhaps separate the updraught from the downdraught (etc.). If nothing else it certainly looked to have the form of a very robust and well organised cell.

[Paul Sherman]

From the pictures I have seen it was 100% a Supercell no questions asked at all IMHO And I have seen a few Supercells in my time.

 

Everything supported it as well, with SE Surface winds, 30kts of Deep layer Shear, 82f temperatures with 68f Dewpoints, NE Of a Low Pressure moving from North west France to Northern England by the end of the day.

 

It had a persistantly rotating mesocyclone from pretty much all the pictures I have seen of this from Swindon to Oxford and and others have said the classic radar signature as well.

 

Great catch and a rare visitor to the Uk Mainland

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Video from the oxford chase (not the best but only my first one!)

 

[Arnie Pie]

Brumcams live streamed mystery 'shotgun thunder' has been revealed by my 2nd camA massive bolt of lightning strikes close to the top of Harborne Hill( Green Man pub)Giving loud shogun thunder

 

Video

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2gbAOK_uJ4 

Edited July 22, 2014 by Arnie Pie

[Neilsouth]

Meh the storm gust front was better, it really did look like end of the world stuff

( Supercell pics/vids )

[audiotech]

The Saturday Oxford storm being discussed over the last few thread pages may have seen a weak tornado touch down in east Oxford. A few people reported seeing a whirlwind, with hailstones and birds spinning around in a circle. Also some images of trees snapped over and some of the funnel cloud in the Oxford Mail report below:

 

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/11353107.Weather__Whirlwind_hits_Blackbird_Leys_during_downpour___flash_flooding_and_trees_down___readers__pictures/?ref=mry

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/11353604.Hailstorm_and____tornado____sweep_through_area/?ref=mry

[ncikos]

Hopefully the met office wont be so eager to put loads of warnings out this week.No doubt there licking there wounds this week after the weekend just gone foul ups they wont be so keen to put warnings up when its not needed.Hopefully we might get a storm or 2 later

[Supacell]

Forecasts still only hinting at a few heavy showers possibly scattered storms. Certainly nothing widespread or on par to the last thundery spell. May see a few isolated ones tomorrow, running across a zone east to west, close to the M4 corridor into SW parts and maybe S Wales. Likes of Mendips, Brecon Beacons, other elevated areas possibly seeing a slightly higher risk at times.

 

A risk of a few thunderstorms today across southern parts, the met office/Euro 4/WRF and GFS all appear to agree on this. The most likely area as you say would appear to be around the M4 with storms likely to initiate somewhere to the west of London and then push westwards towards the Bristol Channel and South Wales. Storms are likely to be isolated, not the widespread storms we saw over the weekend, but worth a mention. With little in the way of shear storms would not likely be severe and moisture may prove to be a bit limited also. I would highlight western parts to be at highest risk of these (Oxfordshire westwards).

 

There is then a risk of some overnight storms skimming the south coast from Kent/Sussex in the evening towards the SW by morning, moving along the Channel. Again nothing severe anticipated but if they do occur then possibilties of an overnight lightning show for some once more. Below is the MUCAPE chart for overnight courtesy of www.lightningwizard.com.

 

 

Estofex highlighting the SW in the 15% lightning risk, which would seem about right considering the low risk outlook but the fact there is definitely a risk. More storm possibilities for the SW quarter of the UK tomorrow.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Supacell

[poseidon]

ncikos, on 23 Jul 2014 - 06:32, said:

Hopefully the met office wont be so eager to put loads of warnings out this week.No doubt there licking there wounds this week after the weekend just gone foul ups they wont be so keen to put warnings up when its not needed.Hopefully we might get a storm or 2 later

Huh? The weekend saw some pretty severe flooding around East Anglia, and Canvey Island. I would have thought the MO yellow warning was well justified?

[William Grimsley]

Hopefully nothing will cross over my house today like it has the other night. Anyway, heading down to the Bergerac area today, it's looking very warm and humid with thunderstorms never too far away, I hope!

[Dancerwithwings]

I bet the bloke had to change his underpants once the adrenalin wore off....lol

(what was with the rollyeyes by the way?)

Silly me.. i thought they where looking up

[Wynn D Woo]

Hopefully the met office wont be so eager to put loads of warnings out this week.No doubt there licking there wounds this week after the weekend just gone foul ups they wont be so keen to put warnings up when its not needed.Hopefully we might get a storm or 2 later

Are you for real?

 

Gloucestershire had flooding, houses struck by lightning and our patch of the UK was by no means alone.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Are you for real?

 

Gloucestershire had flooding, houses struck by lightning and our patch of the UK was by no means alone.

 

Yeah but aliens didn't land, so I guess we can say it was bad forecasting  

[A.J]

Silly me.. i thought they where looking up

those pesky emoticons...lol

 

A risk of a few thunderstorms today across southern parts, the met office/Euro 4/WRF and GFS all appear to agree on this. The most likely area as you say would appear to be around the M4 with storms likely to initiate somewhere to the west of London and then push westwards towards the Bristol Channel and South Wales. Storms are likely to be isolated, not the widespread storms we saw over the weekend, but worth a mention. With little in the way of shear storms would not likely be severe and moisture may prove to be a bit limited also. I would highlight western parts to be at highest risk of these (Oxfordshire westwards).

 

There is then a risk of some overnight storms skimming the south coast from Kent/Sussex in the evening towards the SW by morning, moving along the Channel. Again nothing severe anticipated but if they do occur then possibilties of an overnight lightning show for some once more. Below is the MUCAPE chart for overnight courtesy of www.lightningwizard.com.

 

gfs_mucape_eur27.png

 

Estofex highlighting the SW in the 15% lightning risk, which would seem about right considering the low risk outlook but the fact there is definitely a risk. More storm possibilities for the SW quarter of the UK tomorrow.

 

Nice forecast Karl......will be watching the skies and radar with interest later on this afternoon....camera charged & laptop car charger packed just in case!

[legritter]

any storms or showers today do look very isolated in nature ,but i personally have known in the past that in this sort of set up if you catch one especially if it is slow moving it can provide some welcome Action .so best of luck for all in areas forecasted ,crack open those Stellas and boil a kettle outside for some added moisture 

[Mapantz]

Yellow warning out for tomorrow: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1406156400&regionName=sw

[Dorsetbred]

Yellow warning out for tomorrow: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1406156400&regionName=sw

Looks like a rinse & repeat from last weekend, where you will see something and Poole is just too far east again.

This is becoming repetative now

[Mapantz]

Looks like a rinse & repeat from last weekend, where you will see something and Poole is just too far east again.This is becoming repetative now

I'm just out of the zone on this one, still possible to get something though, and possibly further east of the warning zone- the isolated nature of them, means they could pop up anywhere.Here's hoping!

[A.J]

some convective cloud bubbling up here now, a few turkey towers and a bit of Ac Cas as a bonus

[ancientsolar]

some convective cloud bubbling up here now, a few turkey towers and a bit of Ac Cas as a bonus

Some very high temperatures "already" in addition to those towers