The Alps Snow Thread - Season 2014/2015

[simonjobs]

It has finally started snowing too here in Austria..

 

http://www.wetter.at/wetter/sport-freizeit/ski-wetter/oesterreich#schneevorhersage

 

[carinthian]

It has finally started snowing too here in Austria..

 

http://www.wetter.at/wetter/sport-freizeit/ski-wetter/oesterreich#schneevorhersage

 

It has finally started snowing too here in Austria..

 

http://www.wetter.at/wetter/sport-freizeit/ski-wetter/oesterreich#schneevorhersage

 

Quite a hefty snowfall earlier. That pictures shows a good accumulation in the Ost Tirol/ Italian borders. Same area as last year ! 20cm in Katschberg at 1650m, was not expecting that amount. Hope it holds, I think some colder air could edge in from the east this week to hold the snow to start the foundations of the piste work, hopefully.

 C

[Blessed Weather]

Meteo France have today (20th Nov) posted on their website that 6 resorts are partly opening this weekend as a result of the recent snowfall. So ignoring glacier skiing, this is 5 French resorts more than normal for this early in the season. It seems to confirm that the 'stuck' pattern over the last couple of weeks (UK trough with a S-S/W flow over Europe) hasn't been all bad and appears to have benefitted some resorts in the Southern Alps.

 

Alps: Skiing snow already

The weekend of November 22-23, six ski resorts open part of their ski area. These resorts - La Clusaz, Montgenèvre, Alpe d'Huez, Courchevel, Val Thorens and Tignes - has benefited from recent falls and relatively abundant snow. Val Thorens, Europe's highest resort, is usually the only open so early in the season.

The first significant snow fall of the winter season 2014-2015 occurred on November 4 all the French Alps, where they fell between 15 and 40 cm of snow above 2000m. Further falls occurred between 14 and 18 November, first above 2 300-2 500 meters, then gradually at altitudes less high, up to 1 000-1 200 meters.
Above 2 300-2 500 meters, they brought from 50 to 100 cm over a majority of additional mass.
Consequence: a thicker than normal snowpack for the season (except in some massive Savoie), especially in the Southern Alps and south of the Isere.

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=18084138

[johnholmes]

There will be runs open as well, they say, on the Lauberhorn, First and Mannlichen areas in the Jungfrau area. The forecast is not good, in fact it is bad, for snow, certainly none falling and temperatures too high from 6-7000ft and below,  even at fairly high levels in this area over the next 7-10 days though.

[Blessed Weather]

Not a good week of weather coming up for the Alps. We’ve been stuck in the same pattern for some weeks now – trough near the UK, high pressure block to the east with a resultant predominantly southerly flow across the mountains. There will be some moderate precipitation around mid-week but this will fall as rain apart from on the highest slopes.

 

GFS precipitation chart for Thurs 27th

 

Example freezing levels this coming week:

 

                                  Sun 23^rd  Wed 26^th  Fri 28^th

West   Alpe d’Huez   3,500m   2,600m   2,500m

Mid     Wengen         3,500m   2,600m   2,300m

East    Katschberg    3,300m   2,200m   2,150m

 

The GEFS mean temp anomaly at 850 hPa highlights the warmth of the southerly flow:

 

Today    Fri 28^th

 

Two charts for next Friday 28^th show the long southerly draw all the way from North Africa:

 

GFS P 850 hPa    ECM SLP 

 

With lots of chopping and changing with the model output at the moment there's little point in speculating about developments beyond the coming week, but hopefully this time next week we will be looking at a more favourable picture! 

[J10]

Indeed looking pretty mild over the Alps for the coming week with a southerly flow.

[Paul]

We've updated our ski/snowboard forecasts and snow reports pages this week.

 

Nubs Nob ski area in Michigan currently leading the way in snow depths!!

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ski;sess=

[J10]

Just to let everyone know the first blog forecast for the winter will be on Sunday, just in time for the start of December.

 

Thereafter the forecasts will be each weekend, availability permitting until the end of March.

[stuboy]

Looking like a lot of melting is going on at Passo Tonale at the moment.

[Blessed Weather]

Sat in front of my laptop on Nov 29th looking around the resort webcams I think I can safely say that as November's go it's been a pretty poor one for the Alps. Some snow, but mainly for the southern Alps, and then only at height. Weather largely dominated by a mild southerly flow giving above long-term average temperatures.

Here's a few webcam shots from today that sum it up:

 

St Anton (St Christoph)  Val D'Isere piste front

 

Even the highest resorts are looking a little thin for snow. Val Thorens today at 2,300m

 

There's now only three weeks to go before the first Men's Downhill at Val D'Isere. A change in the weather pattern is badly needed so I'm hoping the recent ECM charts suggesting a cold blast from the north later next week make it to reality. 

 

 

[J10]

This is the first blog of the season as promised. Based on GFS run 30th November 6Hz

 

As it is still quite early in the season, it will be a bit brief, and I am still thinking about the format, and trying to get the info balance correct. Any thoughts please let me know.

 

Current position

 

November has been quite snowy at times across the Alps, and some of this has fallen to low levels, but as ever areas at the highest altitude have done better. However as has been pointed out above by Blessed Weather and others, things have warmed up considerably in the last week or so, which really has had a severely bad impact on the snow base even at high resort levels.

 

Looking Forward Synoptically

 

Currently there is low pressure centred off the South Coast of France feeding in very mild South Easterly winds originating from Africa over the Alps. With Freezing Levels circa 2700 - 3000m over the Alps, the exception being the far NE of Austria.

 

 

Over the next day or so the Low Pressure edges slightly further East and turning less mild as the mild air gets mixed out in circulation. Winds veering to an Easterly direction for the West, and a SSE direction for Austria, with freezing levels over the heart of the Alps circa 2200m, however colder over Eastern Austria, and close to 600m in the Far East. Also turning colder over the far West over France. 

 

 

Into Midweek and winds remaining from a South Easterly to Easterly direction, with low pressure to the South West and High Pressure building to Eastern Europe.  A definite split in the freezing levels between Eastern Austria and the rest of the Alps, 2000-2200m for most parts, 800m-1200m for Eastern Austria.

 

 

By Friday, The Alps is stuck in between two High Pressure systems one centred to the Atlantic, and covering the far NW of Europe, and one centred around Russia, and effecting Eastern Europe, so neutral pressure over the Alps with light and variable winds. So the fairly mild temps with Freezing levels of around 2000-2200m to continue and this also extending east to cover most of Austria.

Precipitation

 

 

Alps Freezing Levels Monday - Wednesday - Friday

 

Precipitation

 

  5 Day Accumulated Rainfall

 

With low pressure to the South West of the Alps, showers or longer periods of precipitation always seem likely for the first part of the week and especially Sunday into Monday. The heaviest precipitation, mostly of rain below 2500m will fall for Southern Switzerland,  SW Austria, Northern Italy and the Eastern French Alps.

 

Turning drier for a time midweek, with showers becoming confined largely to SW parts of the Alps , however the snow level closer to 1800-2000m so some snow for medium level resorts.

 

Summary

 

A fairly mild week, but not as mild as recently, although much colder in Eastern Austria.

Heavy precipitation for Southern areas to start, mostly rain, showery precipitation to follow falling as snow from about 2000m up.  Mostly dry elsewhere, especially from Tuesday onwards.

Edited November 30, 2014 by J10

[carinthian]

Thanks Julian, pretty well ties in with our latest customized forecast. However, we have a fairly high confidence for snowfall next weekend as the freezing level falls and low pressure holds in the region. No snow to work with at the moment, so the resort has not opened by its due date 29th November. Even if snow comes next weekend will need another week for piste work. So 14th December at the earliest I would think .

C

[frozencanals]

Evening all,

 

Its still looking mild over the Alps, I am really hoping things will change before we get to Salzburg on the 21st December, its going to be my only ski fix of the season!!

 

Fingers crossed

 

FC

[Blessed Weather]

Hi Julian. Great to see your weekly posts back for the season! I particularly enjoyed your "Looking forward synoptically" analysis and I think this (and the "Current position") is what many observers of this thread will be wanting to read as the season progresses. My thinking being, many people heading off to the Alps (and Pyrenees) for a skiing holiday will be wanting to know what the conditions are like over there and what weather they are likely to see during their week's holiday.

 

Of course the problem with this is it ideally requires a "next weeks outlook" post on the Friday before people set off early Saturday. Not ideal for those of us who work Mon - Fri. Anyway, just a thought and it would be good to get other peoples views. Meanwhile.... can we have some snow soon, please!!

[J10]

Hi Julian. Great to see your weekly posts back for the season! I particularly enjoyed your "Looking forward synoptically" analysis and I think this (and the "Current position") is what many observers of this thread will be wanting to read as the season progresses. My thinking being, many people heading off to the Alps (and Pyrenees) for a skiing holiday will be wanting to know what the conditions are like over there and what weather they are likely to see during their week's holiday.

 

Of course the problem with this is it ideally requires a "next weeks outlook" post on the Friday before people set off early Saturday. Not ideal for those of us who work Mon - Fri. Anyway, just a thought and it would be good to get other peoples views. Meanwhile.... can we have some snow soon, please!!

 

To be honest the current position was largely based on your summary from Saturday, you did the work for me. 

 

However you do raise a good point though about timing of forecasts. I did one today as to cover the start of December and generally and didn't want to do it on a working day.

 

An issue previously was the thought of doing blogs on a Friday was ideal for skiers, but it was always better for me to do them on Saturdays with more time etc.

 

So an open questions what is the day best to do the forecasts, Friday and if not possible Friday, I would imagine Thursday.

[Blessed Weather]

To be honest the current position was largely based on your summary from Saturday, you did the work for me. 

 

However you do raise a good point though about timing of forecasts. I did one today as to cover the start of December and generally and didn't want to do it on a working day.

 

An issue previously was the thought of doing blogs on a Friday was ideal for skiers, but it was always better for me to do them on Saturdays with more time etc.

 

So an open questions what is the day best to do the forecasts, Friday and if not possible Friday, I would imagine Thursday.

 

Having chewed over the timing issue I believe you should carry on with the weekend update Julian. It's unreasonable to expect you (or any of us) to commit to pulling it together during the working week. If I'm able I'll try and give a quick update on a Thurs evening with a chart or two. And no doubt as the season gets under way other posters will again be posting their own views on the upcoming weather as developments that impact the Alps show on the models.

 

And with regards upcoming developments, it's ironic that with the mood in the Mod thread flattening almost as much as the Nth hemisphere pattern, I think there's finally reasonable hope that most of the Alps will get some decent snowfall to lower levels over the next 10 days. It's all thanks to the Azores ridge pulling back sufficiently for troughs to dig into Europe, allowing some chilly PM air to reach the mountains. There's a first attempt this weekend, but I'm keeping my eye on the 11th-12th Dec as both ECM and GFSP suggest this could be a more potent effort. Charts this evening for the 11th:

 

ECM GFS P GFS precipitation

[J10]

Having chewed over the timing issue I believe you should carry on with the weekend update Julian. It's unreasonable to expect you (or any of us) to commit to pulling it together during the working week. If I'm able I'll try and give a quick update on a Thurs evening with a chart or two. And no doubt as the season gets under way other posters will again be posting their own views on the upcoming weather as developments that impact the Alps show on the models.

 

And with regards upcoming developments, it's ironic that with the mood in the Mod thread flattening almost as much as the Nth hemisphere pattern, I think there's finally reasonable hope that most of the Alps will get some decent snowfall to lower levels over the next 10 days. It's all thanks to the Azores ridge pulling back sufficiently for troughs to dig into Europe, allowing some chilly PM air to reach the mountains. There's a first attempt this weekend, but I'm keeping my eye on the 11th-12th Dec as both ECM and GFSP suggest this could be a more potent effort. Charts this evening for the 11th:

 

ECM ECM 11Dec14 ECM1-216.gif GFS P GFS P 11Dec14 gfs-0-216.png GFS precipitation GFS P 11Dec14 gfs-2-216.png

 

Cheers for that, but what I could do if someone is going on holiday on a particular Saturday, is for them to give advance notice, so that I could rustle something up especially.

 

I think your updates are top notch, and the more people we get involved in this thread, including lurkers the better.

[carinthian]

Hi Julian,

Here are some pictures we woke up to last season. Maybe this will wet the appetite !

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Carinthian

I've read that there's been some nasty icestorm in Austria.  Is it just lower Austria that's experienced it

 

BFTP

[carinthian]

Carinthian

I've read that there's been some nasty icestorm in Austria.  Is it just lower Austria that's experienced it

 

BFTP

Yep, on the news. A bit further in the east and north of here. Warm air aloft is riding over a layer of sub zero air and produced the ice. I think the worst is over. Snowfall now here, 10 cm in village with snowfall settling above 1200m. We expect the snow level and freezing level to continue to drop of the coming days as we lose the warm air flow aloft.

C

[J10]

1398068_799997923371743_5329663870368125677_o.jpg10683458_799997826705086_8192873166007644805_o.jpg

Hi Julian,

Here are some pictures we woke up to last season. Maybe this will wet the appetite !

C

 

Stunning photos, absolutely awe inspiring. I imagine that part of the world though is beautiful with or without snow.

 

 

Into next week it does look as if colder air from the North West is set to push in hopefully making some more seasonal weather conditions actors the Alps.

[J10]

First Forecast Blog of the Winter now published

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4851-alps-weather-forecast-6-december-2014/

 

In Summary  Better Conditions for some snow this coming week, most notably for the start of the working week.

[carinthian]

Looking better for next week. Some work on a base might be possible. Some piste testers out this morning but will need more accumulations. As you report some cold air coming down from the UK direction and the cold fronts should produce some much needed falls, albeit not a great amount forecast, although a Alpine low may deliver in abundance to some places, possibly West Austria/Swiss/ Italian border region.

[frozencanals]

Afternoon All,

 

We are heading to Salzburg on the 20th December, so watching the blog very carefully, it looks like you are promising a little more snow than the local forcasters, they are sticking with a dusting for the next 7 days before a heavier fall could commence around Sunday next weekend.  I am looking at the Gaissau-Hintersee area (only 1570m) but closest to our hotel.  It looks like we may have to go further afield to get some good snow at the moment.

 

Thanks for the time and effort on the blog I shall be an avid reader this winter.

 

Cheers

 

FC

[Blessed Weather]

Disappointing to see the potency of the polar maritime incursions from the NW being watered down as the event draws nearer. For example, last week I posted the GFS chart for next Thurs 11th Dec (admittedly FI). A look at todays output from GFS clearly shows the pattern flattening:

 

GFS last week for 11th Dec  Today's chart

 

Very patchy snowfall across the Alps this weekend. Most places not seeing enough to enable work on pistes. The Western Alps seem to have fared worst than the Eastern. Below, some webcams shots from today. Val D'Isere not looking good with the Ladies downhill now 2 weeks away. The Galzig Bahn was running in St. Anton but clearly no skiing back to the bottom. This weekends prize for 'most snow' looks like it might go to Katschberg in the SE Alps:

 

Val D'Isere piste front Val D'Isere Vallee du Manchet

 

St. Anton piste front (Galzig bahn) Katschberg

 

The temperatures across the Alps look very respectable (low) this coming week, but as J10 says in his blog posted this weekend, not much snow expected. Snowforecast.com suggesting Val D'Isere 3cm, Wengen 5cm and St. Anton 7cm at mid-mountain.

But we keep up hope for heavier snow next weekend, with the GFS showing a low forming over the Southern Alps. Let's see if remains in the output as the week progresses:

Edited December 7, 2014 by Blessed Weather