January 2015 CET forecasts

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 23rd

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

4.6 or 4.7  are you there  Pete!

 

 

Down to 4.7 to the 24th, with a cold end 4.4,4.5 likely finish.

Edited January 25, 2015 by DAVID SNOW

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 24th

 

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited January 25, 2015 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.3c may end up average halting the run of mild months

[Timmytour]

A mean CET of 4.4c would keep this decade on track with 1991-2000, cooler than 2001-2010, but milder than the 1981-2010 and 1961-1990 averages.

Interestingly though all those averages fall below the average for the decade 1921 to 1930

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 25th

 

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

A finish somewhere in the low 4's looks a good bet with downward adjustment, we may be on 4.8 tomorrow, then I suspect the same on Wed, then back down to 4.6 on Thurs, 4.4 on Friday, 4.3 or 4.2 on Sat, with perhaps a 0.1 degree correction, a good bet would be about 4.2 degrees. A rare fairly near average month compared to most of the last 18 months (0.5 degrees either side of the 61-90 average), but once again another above average one, which will be the 12th out of 13 in a row... things must break soon.

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 26th

 

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

To save you looking back, the CET cumulative for today and the rest of the month is 4.4 each day.

 

Tomorrow (28 Jan) has the distinction of holding the lowest of all record maxima, 9.8 set in 1944. There was only one other day that failed to crack 10.0.

 

And every day from today to end of the month set its daily minimum in 1776. Anyone here remember that spell? I sure do.

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 27th

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited January 28, 2015 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

Finishing value?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 5.4C while maxima look like being around 9C, so an increase to 4.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

4.8C to the 29th (2.4)

4.7C to the 30th (2.0)

4.6C to the 31st (0.9)

 

4.6C is likely to be the provisional finish, with 4.1 to 4.6C the range after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 28th

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited January 29, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 29th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.7C looks like being the likely finish before corrections, with today and tomorrow averaging around 2.8C and 2.4C respectively.

Somewhere between 4.2 and 4.7C after corrections then and so 50/50 as to whether we manage to get below the 81-10 average of 4.4C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.2C we should end up average which after being a long way above shows cold the cold snaps were

[March Blizzard]

Reckon we could see a sizeable downward adjustment.

What's the "record", anyone know?

[damianslaw]

Mmm not convinced with the CET, suspect some quite significant downward adjustments, finishing mark 4.4 degrees.

 

I was a bit off with my 3.7 degree projection, but right with the cooling trend with a colder second half. The current cold spell hasn't been accompanied by cold nights.

[Weather26]

4.8c to the 30th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

Reckon we could see a sizeable downward adjustment.

What's the "record", anyone know?

 

0.4 Is the largest I've seen.

[March Blizzard]

0.4 Is the largest I've seen.

Thanks, I could do with a repeat!

[Dancerwithwings]

0.4 Is the largest I've seen.

0.1c will do just fine thanks

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield will close on 4.1C close enough to average.

[March Blizzard]

Sunny Sheffield will close on 4.1C close enough to average.

That's why I think a large downward correction is potentially on the cards. Quite a difference between the current CET and you not too far outside the zone.

[Lettucing Gutted]

 

4.8c to the 30th

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

 

When you see such a big difference in the magnitude of the anomalies, of more than 0.5C, it really shows how much February has warmed over the last 30 years.

Edited February 1, 2015 by Craig Evans