Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

[Liam J]

Another run another upgrade from the GFS for both storms! 

 

 

UKMO not showing the 945mb low anymore but still some very stormy conditions, with the second low deepening rapidly as it tracks over the UK.

 

 

Ensembles still a bit all over the place, some extreme charts on offer for Saturday.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=108

 

Mean pressure charts.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Liam J

[Liam J]

ECM agrees with the UKMO on the track of Thursday/Fridays storm, for now anyway!

 

 

ECM & UKMO at 96hrs, second storm pretty similar position. ECM a bit deeper.

 

Edited January 6, 2015 by Liam J

[The PIT]

Downgrade from the latest GFS compared to yesterday evenings run away from Scotland where it seems to have tightened up somewhat. A general downgrade for Saturday. It's looking away from Scotland if the present trend continues you won't notice anything significant.

[knocker]

A bit of a rough ride for Scotland according to the latest Fax but could have been much worse.

Edited January 6, 2015 by knocker

[Liam J]

Still 3/4 days to go yet so further modification is likely to happen. Hard to have much faith in any output at present for the end of the week. Tomorrow looks like it'll be a very windy day with gusts possibly exceeding 60mph in the north and west for a time. 

[vladthemert]

latest run shifted north again ?

[Nick F]

latest run shifted north again ?

 

06z GFS has pretty much same track and depth for the early Friday deep low with similar wind strengths (70-80mph western Scotland, perhaps up to 90mph or more gusts with exposure Western Isles). However, early Saturday's low further north, winds not quite so severe as the 00z for northern Scotland. Though gales look more widespread across the UK with early Saturday's system.

[Summer Sun]

Wind warnings out from the met office

 

Issued at: 1133 on Tue 6 Jan 2015

Valid from: 0005 on Fri 9 Jan 2015

Valid to: 1500 on Fri 9 Jan 2015

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run rapidly east passing northern Scotland early on Friday. Winds will begin to increase late on Thursday to give a period of very strong westerly winds across the north of the Scottish mainland and the Western and Northern Isles during Friday. Gusts of 70 mph are likely quite widely with a risk of 80-90 mph gusts. Winds should quickly ease from the west during the day. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to transport as well as power supplies and the possibility of structural damage. Large waves may also lead to dangerous conditions along some coasts.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A vigorous depression is expected to develop over the Atlantic during Thursday in association with a very strong jet stream. The depression is likely to run rapidly east northeast to pass northern Scotland early on Friday bringing a brief period of very strong winds to many northern areas of Britain. At present there remains some uncertainty in the precise track and depth of this depression and therefore the exact strength and location of the strongest winds. As such, the situation remains somewhat uncertain and the public should keep up to date with the latest warnings. There is the possibility that this warning may be upgraded to Amber.

 

Issued at: 1147 on Tue 6 Jan 2015

Valid from: 0005 on Fri 9 Jan 2015

Valid to: 1200 on Fri 9 Jan 2015

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run rapidly east, passing northern Scotland early on Friday. This is likely to give a period of very strong westerly winds across much of Scotland and northern parts of Northern Ireland. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely quite widely, but winds should quickly ease from the west in the morning. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to transport.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A vigorous depression is expected to develop over the Atlantic during Thursday in association with a very strong jet stream. The depression is likely to run rapidly east northeast to pass northern Scotland early on Friday bringing a brief period of very strong winds to many northern areas of Britain. At present there remains some uncertainty in the precise track and depth of this depression and therefore the exact strength and location of the strongest winds. As such, the situation remains somewhat uncertain and the public should keep up to date with the latest warnings.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420761600&regionName=uk

[Liam J]

Wind Warnings issued for Saturday. Looks like the impacts will be felt further South. Next step up on the matrix will be Amber.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420848000&regionName=nw

Edited January 6, 2015 by Liam J

[radiohead]

12Z GFS(P) showing mean winds reaching 87 mph just off the Isle of Lewis coast.

 

 

Gusts even inland from the coast in northern Scotland >93mph here :

 

[knocker]

As the Chief Forecaster has pointed out there is still some doubt on the track and depth.

http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_t1534_global.php

[Zenarcher]

Some of the 12z runs are out and we seem to have agreement now on the tracks the storms take.

 

First up Thursday night into Friday morning storm. Both the new and old GFS models along with the UKMO place it to the NW of Scotland. How deep it goes varies still the GFS models have it at 975mb while the UKMO is down to 970mb so the strength of the winds and deepness of the low will still change a bit towards the time.

 

 

Some very strong wind speeds are predicted now for the North of Scotland over 50mph mean wind speeds and gusts to 90mph and more. Because we don't know how low the pressure will get yet we could see a downgrade still in wind speeds.

 

Mean speeds 12am Friday

Gusts 12am Friday

Gusts 3am Friday

Gusts 6am Friday

 

Now onto the next storm Friday night into Saturday morning. We are seeing growing confidence that it will head further North and miss the UK completely however we don't escape it entirely it still gives us very widespread severe gales across the entire UK and Ireland.

 

Strong winds work their way from the North to the South bringing 60 to 70mph and possibly 80mph for exposed places.

 

Gusts 3am Saturday

Gusts 6am Saturday

Gusts 9am Saturday

 

Overall that's how things look at the moment. The first storm hits the NW of Scotland bringing very stormy weather but the strong winds will only remain in the North. The second storm wind speeds will be much more widespread affecting most of the UK.

Edited January 6, 2015 by weathermaster

[Mokidugway]

Saturday morning looking particularly bad am through central belt and northern England ,will do some hatch battoning tomorrow I think ...

[weirpig]

The new gfs has one of those once in a lifetime storms at 200hrs     one to keep an eye on. Although surely to extream

[Zenarcher]

The new gfs has one of those once in a lifetime storms at 200hrs     one to keep an eye on. Although surely to extream

 

It has shown for a few runs now a very deep low pressure system around the 15th something to keep a watch on. At the moment it looks to track across Southern Scotland bringing the worse of the winds to Ireland, Wales and England. Still about 9 days away though.

[Mokidugway]

90 to 100mph gusts through my backdoor ,no thanks a shure downgrade on that thank you !!!..

[itsnowjoke]

Saturday morning looking particularly bad am through central belt and northern England ,will do some hatch battoning tomorrow I think ...

keeping the inlaws out again

[Nick L]

110mph+ gusts shown on this morning's ECM for the Western Isles, 80-90mph fairly widely too. 

[Liam J]

110mph+ gusts shown on this morning's ECM for the Western Isles, 80-90mph fairly widely too. 

Have you got any charts Nick? How far south does the ECM have disruptive winds >60mph in gusts for Friday and Saturdays storms? 

Edited January 6, 2015 by Liam J

[knocker]

This evenings ECM has the low 967mb NW of Scotland at 00z friday with 900mb winds in excess of 100kts sweeping across the north of Scotland around 60+ across much of England. The a brief lull before the next lot. That's as far as the run goes at the moment.

[knocker]

Things move rather swiftly. Again ECM 900mb winds.

 

Sat 00z low 953mb between Iceland and Scotland with a band of strong winds 70kts+ just west of Ireland/Scotland ready to sweep across the UK.

 

By 12z low 943mb north of Lerwick with the worst of the winds departed the UK but Lerwick in the firing line with gusts possible 90-100kts

 

By 18z just off Bergen with southern Norway getting a battering.

 

If this scenario plays out, and there is no certainty of this at this stage, not good but quick but Lerwick could get one of their storms.

[Zephyr]

The GFS(P) at +204   Looks pretty scary. Like people say, still 9 days away though.

 

[Liam J]

The first period of wet & windy weather will begin to spread into the west overnight into tomorrow, nothing too severe with gusts around 50-60mph maybe a little higher in exposure. 

 

 

As for the end of the week I do think we'll see some further modifications across the outputs before we get there. Lots going on atm for the models to get to grips with, even if the main storm centres pass to the north of the UK you have to keep an eye out for sister lows/waves forming in the flow and really increasing the wind speeds locally. The higher resolution models will be a better tool to pick up on this when they come into range later tomorrow. 

 

 

 

[The PIT]

The GFS(P) at +204   Looks pretty scary. Like people say, still 9 days away though.

 

That will blow the cobwebs away.

[Liam J]

The GFS(P) at +204   Looks pretty scary. Like people say, still 9 days away though.

 

Seems the GFS(P) is out on it's own  tonight with this deep low, can't be dismissed though!

Edited January 6, 2015 by Liam J