Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Mesoscale]

2.5c here with a dew point of 0c but not sure how accurate that is?
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/UK/Watford.html

Had some snow earlier so I cannot complain, lets hope everyone gets some tonight.

[anything-but]

Car thermometer in Gravesend says 5c way too warm sadly here unless the temps due to drop?

 

My knackers on a trip to the garage says it a lot lower than 5c out.

[Captain Shortwave]

Tonight

Temperatures

0-2C generally. 

 

Dewpoints look around or a little above freezing.

NMM charts actually don't really bring that channel rain into the south, instead we see another band of showers moving east from the Bristol channel to affect parts of London and the surrounding counties

 

Interesting, this might be a better scenario than dicing with that frontal system. Though the south coast could get some rain from it.

Fax charts in a bit.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[throwoff]

It's snow and you know it!

[stun12]

My knackers on a trip to the garage says it a lot lower than 5c out.

 

The boy just came back from in inaugural ride on his CBR125 and had to warm his nads at the woodburner. Not a pretty sight. 2.3C here, but the windchill on the bike must have made the difference. He is a bike addict...no interest in cars and heading for the full bike licence via all the ridiculous stages. Poor sod. Passed mine on a RD200 in 1980, hehe.

[tinybill]

thinks  might get interesting  here later its frosty  out side and looking at the radar there showers in -bound later  in the  night

[snowking]

It feels slightly like i've been a bit too negative this evening so far, so to confuse everybody totally, let's offer something a little more positive.

 

*N.B - Despite the nature of the image below I at NO STAGE condone setting up any sort of BBC graphics watch, these should be used simply as guidance and not as exact placement projection*

 

Everybody got the above? Good. So the most recent BBC forecasts I have seen still show a fairly similar scenario to the 6z Euro4, which at least offered a little more hope for the higher ground of East Anglia as discussed earlier today. Here are the last graphics I saw:

 

 

Why am I bothering to post these? Well as far as I know the BBC graphics are now driven by the modified Euro4 fields from the Met Office. Now it may just be that these particular graphics were a little out of date when Nick showcased them on the evening news, but if these were indeed driven by the updated 12z suite then clearly the Met Office have made some fairly significant (relatively speaking given the timeframe) alterations to the raw Euro4 output (whilst there is no absolute confirmation as far as the precipitation across us is concerned I do know that the Met Office rather heavily modified the 12z raw Euro4 fields shown on that frontal system across the far North, bringing it more in to line with the NMM output).

 

It is a rather large straw clutch, but may just offer a glimmer of hope to a few of you, presumably any such modification would be either MOGREPS or UKV driven (last UKV run would have been at 3pm so the timing would fit).

 

All speculation but nevertheless it would appear to me that the Met Office are not especially satisfied with the 12z raw Euro4 offering...that of course isn't to say it is definitely wrong.

 

SK

[anything-but]

The boy just came back from in inaugural ride on his CBR125 and had to warm his nads at the woodburner. Not a pretty sight. 2.3C here, but the windchill on the bike must have made the difference. He is a bike addict...no interest in cars and heading for the full bike licence via all the ridiculous stages. Poor sod. Passed mine on a RD200 in 1980, hehe.

 

Motorcycle courier here,cover between 40-50,000 miles a year,so not looking forward to this weeks temps.

[Captain Shortwave]

It's snow and you know it!

I'm saying nothing

Right then

Tomorrow

Light north to north easterly wind

Potential early wintriness will clear to leave a mainly fine day, maybe an isolated coastal wintry shower.

Temperatures

3-5C

 

Overnight

Light northerly wind

Snow showers pushing south through the region, the areas affected and ammounts remain uncertain, but there is the potential for a dusting in places.

Temperatures - 0C to -3C

 

Monday

Slack northerly wind

Early fog may be stubborn to clear in places, otherwise a fine and sunny day, just a few wintry showers around.

Temperatures

1-4C

 

Overnight

Again the risk of a few wintry showers, mainly reserved for Norfolk mostly. Clear and frosty elsewhere.

Temperatures, -2C to -5C

 

Tuesday

Light southerly wind

Again early fog will clear to leave a mostly sunny day, cloud will increase in the west.

Temperatures - 3-6C, coldest in the north, a little less cold perhaps in the south.

[alexisj9]

The 8:00 surface analyses, http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=UK&date=2015011720&size=standard〈=fr&area=uk

 

Unless that 528 line gets down here a bit, I expect only high ground getting anything white if anywhere. Depending on conditions it can snow above that, but as this seems so marginal anyway, I'm not so sure how many of those helpful factors are around.

[Captain Shortwave]

It feels slightly like i've been a bit too negative this evening so far, so to confuse everybody totally, let's offer something a little more positive.

 

*N.B - Despite the nature of the image below I at NO STAGE condone setting up any sort of BBC graphics watch, these should be used simply as guidance and not as exact placement projection*

 

Everybody got the above? Good. So the most recent BBC forecasts I have seen still show a fairly similar scenario to the 6z Euro4, which at least offered a little more hope for the higher ground of East Anglia as discussed earlier today. Here are the last graphics I saw:

 

Screen Shot 2015-01-17 at 20.29.51.png

 

Why am I bothering to post these? Well as far as I know the BBC graphics are now driven by the modified Euro4 fields from the Met Office. Now it may just be that these particular graphics were a little out of date when Nick showcased them on the evening news, but if these were indeed driven by the updated 12z suite then clearly the Met Office have made some fairly significant (relatively speaking given the timeframe) alterations to the raw Euro4 output (whilst there is no absolute confirmation as far as the precipitation across us is concerned I do know that the Met Office rather heavily modified the 12z raw Euro4 fields shown on that frontal system across the far North, bringing it more in to line with the NMM output).

 

It is a rather large straw clutch, but may just offer a glimmer of hope to a few of you, presumably any such modification would be either MOGREPS or UKV driven (last UKV run would have been at 3pm so the timing would fit).

 

All speculation but nevertheless it would appear to me that the Met Office are not especially satisfied with the 12z raw Euro4 offering...that of course isn't to say it is definitely wrong.

 

SK

I'm a little confused as to whether that northern flank is part of the front or not.

This is the actual verified FAX for 6pm tonight

I think it's the trough sitting in the Bristol channel which could be tonight's potential as it runs eastwards broadly along the M4 towards London and then Essex and north Kent. Rain from the front brushes the south coast but not much progression beyond that.

I might be wrong there.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[snowking]

I'm a little confused as to whether that northern flank is part of the front or not.

This is the actual verified FAX for 6pm tonight

17-18z.gif

I think it's the trough sitting in the Bristol channel which could be tonight's potential as it runs eastwards broadly along the M4 towards London and then Essex and north Kent. Rain from the front brushes the south coast but not much progression beyond that.

I might be wrong there.

No you are spot on, it is certainly a trough sliding in from the West...the complication comes from the fact that at the same time that front in the channel starts heading back inland a little too.

 

Plenty of scope for change even at this very late stage as a result, just at the moment it seems unlikely to me.

 

SK

Edited January 17, 2015 by snowking

[Downpour]

That was the cold spell that started last night. Right?

Jeeeeze.

It was tongue in cheek (to an extent!). Not confident of seeing proper settling snowfall this week. But if we do I will eat humble pie!

[snowking]

Dew point check:

 

 

A little lower than projected in the North of the region, around where expected in the South:

 

 

This could still neutralise in the coming hours though and the Euro4 projection not far away (I would guess at least given low resolution):

 

SK

[Bogman]

It was tongue in cheek (to an extent!). Not confident of seeing proper settling snowfall this week. But if we do I will eat humble pie!

Soz.

My bad.

[Andy H]

I take it what is building in the Bristol channel is the snow chance for tonight? Will this not just fizzle out like it did Thursday night? Or indeed build and offer some a few cms?

[steveinsussex]

Some places up north, east of Manchester, look like they have had snow all day....

Not that I'm jealous

No

Not at all

[Jax]

It is another chilly evening here, but suprised at the lack of frost as of yet.

[Biggin]

It is another chilly evening here, but suprised at the lack of frost as of yet.

Cloudy here atm

[Hammer]

sk METO iPhone app predicted rainfall suggests 3am ish PPN for region, those dew points look ok, are they expected to rise.

Dew point check:

 

 

A little lower than projected in the North of the region, around where expected in the South:

 

 

This could still neutralise in the coming hours though and the Euro4 projection not far away (I would guess at least given low resolution):

 

SK

[fatyido]

Temp just went up to 2c and we are currently having a light RAIN shower. Quite surprised really.

[pinball wizard]

Temp just went up to 2c and we are currently having a light RAIN shower. Quite surprised really.

Temps are going up here too and dew point is now -0.2c whereas it was -2c at 6pm :/

[Jax]

Looks like there has been some rain here also, all wet out again.  Temp has also risen up to 2oC now, was 1.3oC a while ago.

[snowking]

sk METO iPhone app predicted rainfall suggests 3am ish PPN for region, those dew points look ok, are they expected to rise.

 

 

They are indeed - between now and 1-2am they are expected to rise by about 1-1.5c, before falling away again after that. So that's certainly something to keep an eye on. If you find your DP rising less than that by 2am then perhaps there's still a chance of something interesting through the night.

 

In all honesty though I am planning on getting a good nights sleep instead!

 

SK

[Met4Cast]

iPhone weather app giving 30% chance of snow tomorrow between 8am and 12pm - From the weather channel though, pretty sure it's raw GFS data