Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[stewfox]

In terms of current model output, those saying it definitely will or definitely won't snow tomorrow are both wrong - it's very much borderline!

 

Current hi-res model going for a rain snow mix - so it's looking likely to boil down to local variations, perhaps a little bit of height, and so on when it comes to what falls out of the sky.. 

 

hrsnowrain.png

 

There is a snow pixle in the centre of london in that image likely to change.

[snowking]

Looking at the potential overnight in to Sunday - it does look rather limited.

 

In terms specifically of this region, the best chance looks likely to be across any higher ground of Essex/Herts. This is shown up for tomorrow morning on the latest run of the Euro4 - which incidentally, as per the below, handled today's occlusion pretty well:

 

 

The complication with the overnight potential comes from the slight mixing out of the colder air towards the surface layer as we see interaction with the disturbance running across the English Channel. This is best demonstrated by the 850-1000mb thickness profiles, compare the current situation:

 

 

And then in to the overnight period:

 

 

We can see that during this mornings activity we saw marginal profiles of around 1290-1300 to the North of London, hence more sleet/snow seen here, where as to the South of London we saw profiles of 1300 +, and so elevation would have been required for anything especially wintry. You can then see by midnight tonight the profiles show values well over 1300 (this looks due to a slight onshore flow at 850mb).

 

However we seem to see a pulse of energy run through the system towards tomorrow morning, which brings precipitation a little further North in to East Anglia:

 

 

This falls back in to profiles which would be more supportive of sleet/snow to the North of London once again:

 

 

The only marginality question mark will be around dew points:

 

 

Obviously not a high enough resolution output there to check for sure but we are looking at dewpoints around the 0-1c, though with intensity this should bring those values down a little potentially. There is only likely to be a rather narrow strip of the Northern edge of the precipitation (possibly only around 30 miles or so) that falls as snow, you can actually see this on the high-res GFS:

 

 

If we break that down to hourly precipitation using the NMM, you can see that the precipitation by tomorrow morning will be rather patchy:

 

 

So any accumulation may be a little optimistic.

 

So if we bring all of that together, we can see why we have the Euro4 projection as follows:

 

 

And as a conclusion I would suspect that if the precipitation does indeed make it to the North of London (which does seem likely if current modelling is correct) then the only areas I can really see getting anything more than sleet is the small area of elevation through Herts and Essex, which you can see to a certain extent here:

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/90/East_Anglia_%28circa_650%29.svg

 

As the precipitation clears away, chased in by the colder air again from the North-West, we may see a short back-edge period of sleet/snow further South in the region, but beyond this, if face value modelling is correct, nothing too much to excite just yet.

 

SK

Edited January 17, 2015 by snowking

[Jo S]

well very disappointing for me today, but hey theres always another day

[stun12]

Beautiful frosty morning which sends the doggies wild for some reason. I think their sense of smell is heightened somehow. Nice morning for sorting out the one fallen tree in our bit of woods and our neighbours which had fallen onto his fence. Rained lightly afterwards. We had a few minutes of very wet sleet about an hour ago, but we were never really due anything in the far SE corner.

Frontal snow is not usually an option here, only the streamers from ENE do the business. Amazing when they come.

I'm delighted that some people have seen a bit of snow. Piccies please.

[Biggin]

Thanks snowking

[Azores Hi]

Ashford, Kent. Sleet. Just!

[Kentspur]

Just had a drive up to Hertfordshire- nothing on way but but a little wet on the roads until just north of potters bar in the outskirts of brookmans park where there are patches of snow still in shaded areas from earlier showers interesting to see

[10 Days Away]

Dymchurch 5C and cold rain.

[mickeyb44]

Sunny and a bit chilly here, lovely.

The meto and beeb now have a few snow graphics for near my area tomorrow, which is nice to see.

[Kent Blizzard]

My eyes will be focused on t120 later on, an E/NE'ly potential with precipitation.... you don't need me to tell you what that could bring to us here 

[Dami]

I can expect maybe a bit of light rain later, but I shall be asleep. So another lovely sunny winters day for us tomorrow, but that's ok because I gotta walk five minutes to the post box with bubs.

Love my clear blue skys, light winds and sun /sarcasm off

[tinybill]

rain/sleet  gone now nice clear sky's looks like it could be a very cold night coming

[Daniel*]

My eyes will be focused on t120 later on, an E/NE'ly potential with precipitation.... you don't need me to tell you what that could bring to us here 

Trough situated over thames estuary thoughts??

Rapid convection may occur not sure a Thames streamer would be possible given - you need a ENE wind direction? But perhaps something similar, I do like a good streamer.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

rain/sleet  gone now nice clear sky's looks like it could be a very cold night coming

 

Clear sky here as well.

[username home]

booooooooooooooooorrrrrrrring!!

[mickeyb44]

This thread or the weather ?

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011712/gfs-0-18.png?12

 

A nice little wiggle from GFS tonight-

 

Instead of looking south in Warm air we should be looking North in Cold air-

 

Hi res hasnt updated yet- will be a trough feature no doubt

 

S

[john mac]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011712/gfs-0-18.png?12

 

A nice little wiggle from GFS tonight-

 

Instead of looking south in Warm air we should be looking North in Cold air-

 

Hi res hasnt updated yet- will be a trough feature no doubt

 

S

Fingers crossed mate, at least I saw 5 snowflakes today lol

[Daniel*]

Nice wiggle indeed.

Since by then we will be under a N'ly airflow (less moderation) the chance of settling snow increases.

[snowblind]

Disappointing update from the met office. Below is the eastern region one but the national one is similar. Only rather cold and rain or sleet. Somehow I was hoping for better.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Rather cold on Monday and Tuesday with sunny intervals, and the odd wintry shower over East Anglia, and with locally severe overnight frost. Rain or sleet clearing east on Wednesday.

Updated at: 1450 on Sat 17 Jan 2015

Edited January 17, 2015 by snowblind

[john mac]

Disappointing update from the met office. Below is the eastern region one but the national one is similar. Only rather cold and rain or sleet. Somehow I was hoping for better.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Rather cold on Monday and Tuesday with sunny intervals, and the odd wintry shower over East Anglia, and with locally severe overnight frost. Rain or sleet clearing east on Wednesday.

Updated at: 1450 on Sat 17 Jan 2015

All the 12z suite to come yet though gfs high has the high further west!!

[Captain Shortwave]

No point worrying about the later half of the week just yet but the GFS looks decent

[Daniel*]

No point worrying about the later half of the week just yet but the GFS looks decent

Yup E'ly was dropped and in recent runs it's getting resurrected... let's hope this finds common ground with other models, I love easterlies from a IMBY stance, you just can't beat it. It seems the cold air is being modelled to be more resilient, with milder W'lies having a hard time breaking through...

[John Snow]

I wonder when the met office will start putting out warnings again for tomorrow, given Steve's update snow seems nailed on

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I wonder when the met office will start putting out warnings again for tomorrow, given Steve's update snow seems nailed on

 

Nailed-on for who?  AFAIK, it's snow or sleet for the far south-east, rain for London and parts of Essex, and sweet FA here.