North West England - Weather chat

[robbo88]

Don't know if this had been shared....

This is the euro4 for midnight tomorrow.

Will have to see if the next run is the same.

[Snowy L]

Don't know if this had been shared....

This is the euro4 for midnight tomorrow.

Will have to see if the next run is the same.

 

Looks about right. I expect Liverpool to miss out, but I think Met Office have got it very wrong not having a warning for inland areas.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Snowy L

[frosty ground]

Looks about right. I expect Liverpool to miss out, but I think Met Office have got it very wrong not having a warning for inland areas.

But the event will happen over night no need for a warning in a situation that is fluid.

[robbo88]

Tuesday:

Another cold and crisp morning, with plenty of sunshine. However cloud will increase during the day, with outbreaks of sleet and snow likely late in the afternoon and overnight Maximum Temperature 4C.

This is taken from the met regional summary maybe they are expecting snow, but just not enough to cause major disruption?

[Bolton67]

But the event will happen over night no need for a warning in a situation that is fluid.

There should be warnings.. I work nights.. Last thing I want is to get stuck on the M62 at 6am

[harrythefish]

But the event will happen over night no need for a warning in a situation that is fluid.

There should still be a warning though, even if only a yellow and only for high ground. I remember there was a lot of controversy in the Scotland thread recently over a gale with 100mph gusts that happened at night and didn't get a red warning.

[Mokidugway]

Coastal areas look marginal to say the least , inland and altitude I would say you're on a winner ,enjoy ...

[frosty ground]

GFS 12z is not that great for this region, away from Lake District. (Precipitation less intense and more fragmented)

South Easterly will kill any snow on the west Pennines (east Manchester).  

[Liam J]

Clouding over from the west with snow grains falling, 0.5c and freezing over again, temp still dropping despite the cloud!

[James M]

Fantastic day today just managed to scrape an ice day! (-0.1C) plus an unexpected moderate snow shower. I've been up at Dovestones again today and there was a good 4 inches and lovely powdery stuff.

[frosty ground]

Fantastic day today just managed to scrape an ice day! (-0.1C) plus an unexpected moderate snow shower. I've been up at Dovestones again today and there was a good 4 inches and lovely powdery stuff.

Gonna be a cold one tonight!

[AderynCoch]

Some ice/hail/graupel/compressed snow/whatever has survived on the grass round here. Other than that it just feels chilly (rather than properly cold).

 

I could see Winter Hill before in the distance living up to its name.

Edited January 19, 2015 by AderynCoch

[Liam J]

0.2c DP -1c, hopefully it'll stay like that as the front makes progress!! Then it would be snow

[chiffer]

There will be warnings for Tuesday night regardless, because it will get icy Wednesday morning. It'll snow tomorrow in some places, even if those daft little icons tell you it will it sharnt make it clear cut. They obviously mustn't feel the need to give over 24 hours warning this time and that's okay!

[hammy]

As the event gets into the closer timeframe personally i will be ignoring the GFS about where precip will fall and how much, its very rarely correct hence why I will be refering to the nmm and euro4 models. They both run at a much higher res and therefore the precip track will be more reliable, lets wait unitl the 12z for these said models update..

[Mokidugway]

Temp a tropical 4 c and dp of-1 ,you couldn't make it up ....although a favourable wind direction .

Edited January 19, 2015 by Mokidugway

[Dr. Astro]

Temp a tropical 4 c and dp of-1 ,you couldn't make it up ....

 

1C here and falling now, Dew point -1C and falling (Salford, Manchester)

[Liam J]

Maybe the front won't even make it this far east?! Seen it before many times where the models show a front moving into cold air then it stalls and fizzles out sooner than predicted. 

 

I remember Feb 1996 very well when the front stalled right over the NW dumping 25cm or so of level snow! It was sleet all day the ground was soaked then during the late afternoon it turned to snow and just started sticking! 

Edited January 19, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[chiffer]

Maybe the front won't even make it this far east?! Seen it before many times where the models show a front moving into cold air then it stalls and fizzles out sooner than predicted.

Possibly quite potent around the Lake District area, but the wind will be se sse so some eastern areas might not get what they want.

[Mokidugway]

Maybe the front won't even make it this far east?! Seen it before many times where the models show a front moving into cold air then it stalls and fizzles out sooner than predicted.

if it's rain it steams through like a panzer devision though !!!!!

[robbo88]

0c -1dew. Wonder if we will get anymore surprise snowfalls before tomorrow evenings event...

[Dr. Astro]

Maybe the front won't even make it this far east?! Seen it before many times where the models show a front moving into cold air then it stalls and fizzles out sooner than predicted. 

 

I remember Feb 1996 very well when the front stalled right over the NW dumping 25cm or so of level snow! It was sleet all day the ground was soaked then during the late afternoon it turned to snow and just started sticking! 

 

I can see that happening this time Liam, it's not strong enough.

 

I'd put my house on the front reaching Wales, and splitting so North Wales gets snow, Cumbria gets snow, and those in-between don't get anything, maybe a light shizzle that manages to reach inland.,

[James M]

0c -1dew. Wonder if we will get anymore surprise snowfalls before tomorrow evenings event...

 

Hopefully not tonight, I'm looking forward to the coldest night of the winter so far!

[Mokidugway]

There a lot of cloud spilling in now ,I think we would be lucky to see temps as low as last night imo ...

[Chris.R]

Quite confident we will have snow here. The SE flow ahead of the front will ensure the surface cold remains in place and will reduce the influence off the sea. Evaporative cooling should play a part as well. I remember in the last few years such setups which although we were forecast rain, have delivered accumulating snow. A number of times in March 2006,23/12/2009, 13/01/2010, 18/02/2010, , 11/01/2013, 25/01/2013, 13/02/2013, 11/03/2013, 22/03/2013 are just some I can remember. Most recently the Boxing Day front turn to snow with evaporative cooling aided by the south-easterly flow.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Chris R